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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Time to move on from trading SDRL
Seadrill (SDRL) was scheduled to file for a pre-packaged bankruptcy today. When it didn’t, the shares soared. Before finishing the day up 17.46%–a 3 cents a share gain to 23 cents–the stock was up as much as 31.17% as of noon in New York. If you’ve been trading Seadrill shares, as I have, as the company moves toward bankruptcy, in an effort to recoup at least some of the losses from the collapse of this stock in the rout in the deep-sea drilling sector, I think it’s now time to move on. There might be one more move left in the stock. Maybe something akin to the story that a Chinese company was going to buy the driller that drove the shares up 43% in the week that ended on September 1. But I doubt it.
Adding a gold ETF on today’s drop in the metal on hurricane, North Korea relief
I’m adding the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios today. Gold has sold off today with worries over a new missile test from North Korea in abeyance. And with traders relieved–and apparently surprised–to discover that Hurricane Irma didn’t wash Florida out to sea over the weekend. As I have noted over the last few days the likelihood is that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken for the rest of 2017–if not longer.
Nothing but good news for markets from European Central Bank today
At today’s meeting the European Central Bank announced that it would leave interest rates in negative territory and continue to buy debt assets at the current monthly rate. In his post-meeting press conference ECB president Mario Draghi noted that despite an increase in economic growth in the EuroZone to 2.3% year over year in the second quarter, the bank has yet to see a sustained increase in the rate of inflation that would lead to a change in policy.
Two typhoons don’t dent casino revenue growth in Macao
Casino revenue in Macao climbed by a year over year 20% in August, marking a 13th consecutive month of growth–despite two typhoons the left half of the city without power and water for as many as four days. Shares of MGM Resorts International (MGM), which is due to open a new casino on the Cotai Strip at the end of 2017, are up 10.84% from August 17 to 3 p.m. today, September 6.
How will Apple’s new iPhone match up with the competition from Samsung’s Note 8? Here’s what we know
Back on August 24 I wrote a post rating the snazz of the new Note 8, the top of the line smartphone that Samsung had just introduced. The Note 8, I wrote, set the bar for the high end of the smartphone market that Apple’s new phone would have to jump at its introduction this fall.
Now obviously we know a lot about the Note 8. The phone is in the hands of tech journalists (and soon consumers) who can try out and describe actual features of the phone. Nobody has put his or her hands on an iPhone 8 yet. But that doesn’t mean that we don’t know anything about that phone.
What? Wait a minute! Not everything is perfect at Alibaba?
On August 17 Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) reported another blowout quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share climbed 65% and revenue rose 56%. And… on its conference call Alibaba repeated its guidance for 45% to 49% revenue growth for fiscal 2018. Below the top line, the numbers were stunningly good too.
Cummins reports solid second quarter and shows progress in moving to electric truck market
On August 1 Cummins (CMI) reported second quarter earnings of $2.53 a share. That was 3 cents a share below Wall Street estimates. Revenue climbed 12% year over year to $5.08 billion, significantly above the $4.8 billion projection. For the full 2017 year, the company told Wall Street to expect revenue growth of 9% to 11% or $19.08 billion to $19,43 billion vs the $18.52 billion Wall Street estimate. The company had earlier forecast revenue growth of 4% to 7%. I really don’t have any worries about Cummins in the near term. In the longer term, however, the company faces an incredibly difficult transition from a world of truck engines built around internal combustion technologies (gasoline and diesel) to world of hybrids and electric engines.
Hurricane Harvey is demonstrating the new world of oil prices–and I’m selling refiner Marathon Petroleum into the storm
With Hurricane Harvey barreling down on the Gulf Coast complex of refineries and oil terminals, you might have expected the price of gasoline to rise yesterday, August 24, on fears of a shutdown of supply. And it did. The price of gasoline climbed 2.35% yesterday on the commodities market. The price of oil fell, though, with West Texas Intermediate falling 1.63% on the day.