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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Is the earnings growth rate starting to decelerate for technology stocks?
In an October 30 research report, Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider and his team said third-quarter earnings results underscore a challenge facing equity investors: Corporate profits remain exceptionally strong, but the acceleration in the growth rate that helped drive stocks higher is coming to an end. All things being equal, that will lead to valuations being revised lower for the highest momentum stocks. Goldman Sachs warns that investors may need to adjust their expectations as profit growth slows, artificial intelligence spending begins to mature, and market leadership shifts away from technology giants. All “what ifs”, I grant you but this is a plausible scenario and worth thinking about. The effects on the high-growth, high-multiple parts of your portfolio would be extreme. With 60% of S&P 500 (SP500) companies having reported results, earnings per share are on track to rise 33% from a year earlier. That matches the second quarter’s growth rate and represents one of the strongest performances in recent decades outside of economic recoveries following recessions. Yet Goldman Sachs expects that momentum to moderate significantly.
And then there was one–maybe–AI company with a path to profits
In the distant past–you know like maybe 6 months ago, the conventional Wall Street wisdom divided AI stocks into two camps. There was the large group that included exciting shoot-the-moon companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Coreweave that were out on the leading edge of these technologies. They might well capture the future of a global economic revolution. On the basis of that promise, they had raised hundreds of billions of dollars to build out the infrastructure of AI. The big question was Would they generate enough profit to pay the interest on all that debt or would they run out of new investors to cover their losses before they generated substantial profits? And then there was a smaller group of big Internet companies–you know the names: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms–that stood to make huge profits building the “compute” that AI needed, but who had significant other businesses that generated huge positive cash flows so that they could finace their AI build out internally. In the last week or so, however, this wisdom has run into a huge problem.
Pick your poison: central bank meetings or Magnificent 7 earnings
This coming big potentially market-moving news on two fronts. Potentially. One of the two news flows is much more likely than the other to actually move stocks
There’s nothing magical about 5% interest rates–until you add massive, stunningly complex leverage
Pay close attention to this BIG CAVEAT. “In a normal economic environment, rates rising over 5% do not contribute to mortgage stress or financial fragility. But in a situation where leverage has run amok, poison is circulating through the entire financial system via securitized subprime junk, all the while traditional lending standards were abandoned–yeah, higher rates are gonna be one of the elements that send the chickens home to roost.” And that unfortunately is exactly where we are right now. We’re not in a normal economic environment now. Leverage has again run amok–whether in the AI sector, the general economy, or global government debt.
So far it looks like a market rotation
There is clear evidence of a short-term rotation out of parts of technology, especially semiconductors and AI-hardware names, and into financials and other value/cyclical sectors. But it is not yet a decisive, sustained “tech-to-healthcare” leadership change–bank earnings so far this week have been good but not all banks have knocked it it of the park; healthcare has reported uneven news, and the tech giants start to report next week. Here’s what the market is showing.
Bonds say “Worry” but stocks look at projected earnings and say “What, me worry?”
Bond yields keep rising. Premiums for holding risky bonds keep climbing. Bonds below investment grade are trading at deeply distessed prices. The bond market is clearly signalling tough, risky, potentially loss-filled times ahead. And stocks just don’t care The Nasdaq 100 Index hit a fresh record on Friday and is up 22% this year, while the S&P 500 Index is less than 1% from the all-time high it reached in August. Why? Extraodinary projected earnings growth from Big Tech in the quarters ahead.
It’s not just Treasuries–how about the rout from AI debt at Oracle?
On Thursday Oracle’s (ORCL) credit default swaps spiked to record highs. Investors are worried at the size of Oracle’s debt load. And wonder if profits will arrive early enough to meet the debt burden. Oracle isn’t an isolated worry–it’s just the poster child for debt pressure facing AI companies. A big question, one of several, giving investors a reason not to buy stocks in the AI sector despite more reasonable valuations is whether profits from AI revenue growth will materialize before these companies have to pay the rising costs of borrowing to build out AI infrastructure.On Thursday, the cost OF Oracle’s debt reached unprecedented levels. At the same time the company’s borrowing costs surged, with the yield on its 6.7% bonds maturing in 2056 crossing 8% for the first time, according to Zerohedge.
Adding to my long-dated Treasury short TBF
The ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) is up 10.22% for 2026 as of the close on September 23. The ETF, which gains as long-dated Treasury bonds fall in price, is likely be a profitable hedge–and indeed just plain profitable–into 2027 as we get more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve at its December meeting and into 2027.










