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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
A reminder of why Jubak Pick Incyte has been so weak lately
On December 4 MacroGenics (MGNX) announced that it had closed on its previously announced (October 25) license agreement with Incyte (INCY). For an upfront payment of $150 million and up to $420 million in milestone payments Incyte gained the exclusive global rights to develop and commercialize MGA012, an anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody. (PD-1, also know as programmed cell death protein 1, helps regulate the immune system by suppressing T cell activity to prevent autoimmune disease, where the body attacks its own cells.
How much can Pioneer Natural Resources increase production?
When West Texas Intermediate crude was struggling to stay above $50 a barrel, the important issues for a U.S. oil shale producer such as Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) were How much of production in 2018 was hedged above $50 a barrel? and How quickly the company could continue to cut production costs? Now, however, that OPEC has agreed to keep its production cuts in place until the end of 2018, those questions have taken a back seat to How quickly can U.S. oil shale producers ramp production? West Texas Intermediate ended its rally of last week today, December 4, by falling 1.58% on fears that U.S. producers will be able quickly to raise output to make up for any OPEC production cuts–and more. Big production increases by a U.S. oil shale producer–especially if implemented quickly–would allow the company to profit from the higher prices that followed on the OPEC announcement–and to avoid getting boxed in by those price hedges that seemed so smart when oil prices were struggling.
Adding lithium producer SQM to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were down 3.15% in today’s (November 29) session on a report from Reuters that up to 90% of its Model S and Model X vehicles showed defects during quality checks. (Tesla disputes the Reuters story.) On the news, though, lithium stocks fell as well. The theory, I guess, is that if Tesla has more product defects and sells fewer cars, demand for lithium, used in making batteries of electric cars (and any other rechargeable device) would fall. For example, Albemarle (ALB), a lithium producer, fell 3.61% in today’s trading. (Albemarle is a member of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio.) And Chile’s Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM), the world’s low cost producer of lithium, finished down 3.82%. I’m going to use this dip in Sociedad Quimica y Minera to add the ADRs to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio tomorrow. The company has a 27% share of the global lithium market.
Time to buy Incyte on the biotech dip
Maybe you didn’t even know there was a biotech dip. If all you’ve been following in the sector is a stock like Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), a Jubak Picks member (and the call options are a holding in my Volatility Portfolio), you’re likely to respond “What dip?” Nektar is up, 325% for 2017 to date and 178% in the last three months as of the close on November 27. But the reality is that the sector as a whole has been going nowhere–or worse. The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology ETF (IBB) is up just 0.4% in the last three months and down 0.54% in the month. From the local high on October 5, the sector ETF was down 8.8% as of the close on November 27.
Cheniere Energy reports third quarter earnings below consensus but revenues show a strong beat–I’m raising my target price to $62
Yesterday Cheniere Energy (LNG) reported a loss for the third quarter of $1.24 a share, 74 cents a share worse that the Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed 202% hear over year to $1.4 billion against Wall Street projections of $1.27 billion. The company also issued guidance for 2017 and 2018.
Robots, robots everywhere: Good for long-term pick Fanuc
The International Federation for Robotics latest report forecasts a 15% compounded annual growth rate for global shipments of industrial robots through 2020. That would follow 16% to 18% annual growth in 2016-2017. By 2020 annual unit shipments are estimated to reach 521,000, up from 294,000 in 2016 and 159,000 in 2012.
Autoliv earnings: So when is the future?
On October 26 Autoliv (ALV) reported third quarter earnings of $1.47 a share, 12 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed just 1.6% year over year to match the analyst projection at $2.5 billion. The problem in the quarter was revenue growth–or actually the lack thereof. Organic sales grew by just 0.5%, even lighter than guidance for 0% to 2% growth. And the company cut its forecast for full 2017 organic revenue growth to 1% from the prior 2% growth. The company made no bones about what it’s going through: “The third quarter turned out essentially as we had expected, Autoliv CEO Jan Carlson said. “We are in the midst of an intense period of preparing for our future growth, while delivering at the high end of our guided margin range for the quarter.”
Nektar soared today on cancer drug data–but remember that new opioid? That’s why I say “Buy” in Jubak Picks even after this run
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) shares finished the day up 14.15% on fairly preliminary, but very important data from the trials of the company’s lead cancer drug. Those results go a long way to validating the company’s entire pipeline of drug candidates to treat cancer by boosting the body’s own immune system to fight tumors. (For more on that news see my earlier post on my subscription sites JubakAm.com and Juggling with Knives.) Perhaps over shadowed by that news, the company also reported significant movement on getting its new opioid, as effective as current opioids but much less addictive in trials to date, to the U.S. Food & Drug Administration, through the regulatory process on an expedited schedule, and to the market.