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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
My long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio returned 28.10% in 2017, beating the S&P 500
The indexes set a tough benchmark in 2017 with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index showing a total return (price appreciation plus dividends) of 21.64%. For the year the price gain on the 50 Stocks Portfolio came to 26.8%. The portfolio also showed a 1.28% yield for the year. The total return for the portfolio was 28.1% in 2017.
On the fifth day of Christmas my stock pick is Applied Materials–and five golden rings
I’m making Applied Materials (AMAT) my fifth day of Christmas pick. And I’m adding the stock to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio today (for purchase on January 2.) Applied boasts an impressive global presence with an installed base of more than 30,000 tools and customer engineers stationed in nearly every chip-manufacturing facility in the world. The relationships that come with that installed base of tool and customer engineers is a huge competitive advantage in designing and introducing new generations of chip-making equipment.
Time to clear away the brush in my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio–selling four stocks out of this portfolio ahead of January rebalancing
In the first week of January I’m going to rebalance, per the strategy I pursue with this portfolio, my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That means I’ll be taking profits in the big winners of 2017 and adding to positions in the laggards for the year ahead. This rebalancing works pretty well for a long-term portfolio that looks for companies with a competitive advantage that will endure for five years or more. This rebalancing gives the portfolio a chance to make a profit on the cycles that even a great stock and company go through. Thanks to the rebalancing I buy more of what’s out of favor now and can look forward to a profit when the stock moves back into favor.This works–as long as the stock is just temporarily out of favor. I certainly don’t want to send good money chasing after bad if something fundamental has changed for the worse about the company’s competitive position. (Or if I’ve made a mistake–perish the thought–in my initial analysis of the company and the stock.) So ahead of that January rebalancing I’m going to clear out a few stocks that I don’t especially want to own in 2018–or for the long haul either.
On the fourth day of Christmas my stock pick is Nvidia–and four colly birds
And what’s a colly bird and isn’t it “calling birds”? “Colly” derives from the Old English word for coal. So the song’s lyrics here call for four blackbirds. All the evidence I’ve seen argues that the use of “colly birds” in the lyric pre-dates any use of “calling birds” by at least a century. And now that this important issue is out of the way, let’s move onto the crux of the Nvidia (NVDA) question: How long can the company sustain something like its current lead in massively parallel chip architectures for cloud computing, PC games, artificial intelligence, block chain implementation, deep learning, and autonomous vehicles? No doubt that Nvidia is ahead now.
Apple gets a two-pronged roasting and the stock stumbles
Apple (AAPL) is getting hit from two directions in the closing days of 2017. On the negative news Apple fell 2.5% yesterday, December 26. The shares rebounded very slightly–0.02%–today. The first bad news came yesterday as analysts cut their estimates for sales of the iPhone X in the first quarter of 2018
Don’t forget to harvest your tax losses by the end of the year
U.S. stocks have had a great year in 2017. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is ahead 18.66% for 2017 as of the close today, December 22. The NASDAQ Composite, heavy on tech stocks and financials, is ahead 28.2%. But there’s a good likelihood that you’ve got a tax loss or two–not everything you own is up for the year, probably, and not everything you own is up since you bought it way back whenever–and in a year like this tax losses can be especially valuable.
Lithium producer SQM soars after Chilean election
Quite a good two days for Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile or SQM for short. The Chilean producer of lithium climbed almost 8% yesterday and tacked on another 2.8% today. The shares (SQM) are now up 11.47% since I added them to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio back on November 30, 2017. The correlation with the election victory of Sebastian Pinera is striking.
On the third day of Christmas my stock pick for 2018 is Southern Copper–and three french hens
Way back on August 17 I finished off a bullish story on the copper sector with the promise of some stock picks. My apologies: I left that string dangling. But today I’m using the third of my 12 Stock Picks of Christmas to add Southern Copper (SCCO) to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. (Tomorrow I’ll be adding another copper pick–but not a 12 Stock Picks of Christmas selection–to my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription sites JubakAM.com and JugglingWithKnives.com.