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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Two big deals for Tencent Holdings support valuation
First, on January 15, China’s Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) announced that it would partner with privately-owned Lego to develop a Lego streaming video zone for children on Tencent’s video platform and create Lego-branded games for Tencent’s gaming network. (Tencent is the world’s biggest gaming company. The stock, Asia’s most valuable by market capitalization, is a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. It’s up 127.89% as of the close on January 29 since I added it to the portfolio on February 14, 2017.) The deal matches one that Mattel (MAT) struck last year with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (BABA), a Tencent competitor at the top of China’s online universe. (Alibaba is a member of my Jubak Picks and 50 Stocks Portfolios. The shares are up 233.43% in my 50 Stocks Portfolio since I added them on February 8, 2016, and top 142.17% in my Jubak Picks Portfolio since I added them on October 26, 2015.)The deal is a good one for Lego
Starbucks disappoints in quarter but recovery in 2018 is on track
Blame it on Christmas Tree Frappuccino. On Thursday, January 25, after the market close Starbucks (SBUX) reported December (fiscal 2018 first quarter) earnings of 58 cents a share (excluding one-time tax benefits.) The results were ugly on the revenue side where the company missed analyst estimates and reported that same store sales grew by just 2% instead the 3% estimate. That marketed the eighth straight quarterly miss on comparable sales. Operating margin was 19.2% for the quarter, a decline of 80 basis points year over year. Starbucks shares closed 4.23% lower. (Starbucks is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The shares were up 0.62% as of Friday’s close since I added them to this portfolio on January 2, 2018.) ) The company identified two problems in the quarter.
GDP disappoints, durable goods orders solid
The first read on growth in the U.S. economy during the fourth quarter was a tad disappointing. GDP increased by 2.6% year over year in the fourth quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for growth of 2.9%. In the third quarter of 2017 GDP grew at a year over year rate of 3.2% after all the revisions were in.
Caterpillar beats on earnings and guidance but stock falls 1.4% today
Investors and traders were determined to sell Caterpillar (CAT) shares after the stock gained 70% in 2017. That determination overshadowed yesterday’s good news on fourth quarter earnings and positive guidance for 2018. The shares, which I added to my Jubak Picks Portfolio yesterday, January 25, closed down 1.36% today, January 26.
Helmerich & Payne completes its recovery from 2017 drilling slump; keeping the stock in my Dividend Portfolio
Helmerich & Payne (HP) reported December quarter (first quarter of the 2018 fiscal year) earnings of $4.57 a share. As they say on Wall Street–that $4.57 a share may not be comparable to the Wall Street analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 13 cents for the quarter. Helmerich & Payne didn’t beat estimates by $4.70 a share. Net income included $4.57 a share of after-tax gains from a non-cash (that is “accounting”) gain of $501 million from a reduction in the company’s deferred income tax liability resulting from the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. A more accurate measure of the quarter is the company’s adjusted operating loss of 2 cents a share. That’s still way better than Wall Street was expecting.The good news also extended to revenue which saw $564 million in the quarter, a significant beat to the $538 million expected by analysts and a big improvement (53%) from the $369 million in the December quarter of 2016.
Adding Boeing to Jubak Picks on weak dollar, strong global economy, tax cuts
Shares of Boeing (BA) have tumbled from $351.01 on January 17 to close at $334.69 today. I’m using the pull back to add shares to my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, January 25. The Boeing story right now is one of multiple tailwinds pushing the stock higher.
Adding Caterpillar to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios ahead of earnings tomorrow
Caterpillar (CAT) looks to be a major beneficiary of the lower tax rates in the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act and for a lower U.S. dollar. (See the remarks favoring a lower dollar from the U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin at Davos today.)
Not that Caterpillar sales are exactly struggling.
How much higher will a surge in new Treasury supply push bond yields? How about 2.9% on 10-year Treasuries by the end of 2018?
Another date to put on your investing calendar: January 31. That’s when the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to announced how it plans to finance the government’s huge revenue shortfall over the next three months. The betting on Wall Street is that the announcement will foreshadow a wave on new Treasury debt to be issued in 2018 that will double (at least) from 2017 to more than $1 trillion.