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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Apple beats on earnings; iPhone sales of 52.2 million slightly below consensus of 52.3 million units

Apple beats on earnings; iPhone sales of 52.2 million slightly below consensus of 52.3 million units

It wasn’t a big beat and iPhone sales weren’t wildly above consensus, but such was the fear and skepticism surrounding Apple (AAPL) that shares rose 3.61% in trading after the earnings announcement. The company reported earnings of $2.73 a share, five cents a share above the Wall Street consensus of $2.68. Revenue for the quarter (the second quarter of Apple’s fiscal year) was up 15.6% year over year to $61.14 billion against the Wall Street consensus of $60.94 billion.
 

Merck moves lower in spite of earnings beat

Merck moves lower in spite of earnings beat

This morning before the New York markets opened Merck (MRK) reported earnings of $1.05 a share, ahead of the $1.00 a share forecast by Wall Street analysts. Earnings were up 19.3% from the first quarter of 2017. Revenue grew 6% to $10 billion. That narrowly missed the Wall Street consensus of $10.09 billion. In the 8 a.m. conference call management said Wall Street under appreciates the company’s growth prospects.

McDonald’s jumps on earnings beat

McDonald’s jumps on earnings beat

McDonald’s reported a solid earnings beat of 12 cents a share ($1.79 vs expectations for $1.67) before the market opened today, April 30. Revenue fell 9.5% year over year to $5.14 billion but that was still ahead of the $4.97 billion Wall Street consensus for the quarter. The shares closed up 5.77% today. Global comparable sales gained 5.5% (vs estimates for 5%)

Israel’s Prime Minister announces major statement Monday night on Iranian nuclear program

Israel’s Prime Minister announces major statement Monday night on Iranian nuclear program

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced that he will make a statement at 8 p.m. Tel Aviv time tonight on a “significant development” regarding the Iranian nuclear pact. (8 p.m. in Tel Aviv is 1 p.m. in New York.) Israeli news sources are saying that the government has obtained documents that government sources say prove Iran has misled the world about its nuclear program.

Adding Merck to my Dividend Portfolio

Adding Merck to my Dividend Portfolio

News out of the imuno-oncology sector of the biotech world has hit stocks in my portfolios such as Incyte (INCY) and Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) hard. But, I’d argue that it has left Keytruda and its owner Merck (MRK) in a measurably stronger position in the market for cancer drugs. And as they say, When the market gives you lemons, you should make lemonade.  So I’d adding Merck to my Dividend Portfolio for a buy on Monday.

Time to add China Southern Airlines to my 50 Stocks Portfolio

Time to add China Southern Airlines to my 50 Stocks Portfolio

You might know that China Southern is the largest airline in China. But I bet you didn’t know that it has the largest fleet (702 planes) of any Asian airline. I’ve been looking to add shares of China Southern Airlines (ZNH) to my long-term 50 Stocks ever since I saw the newest list of the world’s 20 busiest airports from the Airports Council International on April 6.

Did Intel and Amazon finally break the sell on earnings beat pattern today?

Did Intel and Amazon finally break the sell on earnings beat pattern today?

Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) all reported earnings after the close today. All three beat earnings estimates–but this market hasn’t been very generous in rewarding earnings surprises (after Netflix (NFLX)) that is.  The key tests here are to see what the shares did in after-hours trading, after investors and traders saw the earnings news, and to see how the market treats these beats tomorrow

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