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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Stock or options, Nektar needs some understanding and patience now

Stock or options, Nektar needs some understanding and patience now

It hasn’t exactly been a stellar couple of months for shares and options on Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR). The stock, which I hold in my Jubak Picks portfolio, is down 23.1% since it hit a high of $108.44 on March 8. The August 17, 2018 call options with a strike of $90 I bought on February 25, 2018 in my Volatility Portfolio are now down 39%. The stock looks like it may have stabilized at $77/$78 and it has edged higher to close at $83.40 today, May 15, after a gain of 3.05%, but the recent “progress” has been “limping” to anyone used to the gains this stock racked up in 2017. I think what you need to profit from Nektar shares or options now is some understanding of why the stock has struggled over the last two months. And, armed with that understanding, some patience as it takes longer than expected for positive catalysts to kick in.

Putting gold back into the 50 Stocks Portfolio with Randgold Resources

Putting gold back into the 50 Stocks Portfolio with Randgold Resources

Today, I’m adding Randgold Resources (GOLD) to my 50 Stocks Portfolio. The company had what I regard as a temporary stumble in its most recent quarter. That hasn’t changed the attractive long-term fundamentals but it has created a decent if not jump up and down in glee buying opportunity in the shares, which closed at $79.91, up 0.25%, today, May 14. Here’s the Randgold story in brief.

Nvidia crushes earnings; stock falls after hours

Nvidia crushes earnings; stock falls after hours

Okay, if you’re a trader I sort of understand selling Nvidia (NVDA) after today’s earnings report: Sell on the news; How can it get better? How long can the company keep it up? After all, the stock closed today just pennies below it’s all time high. (It’s the possibility of this sell on the news reaction that led me to sell my call options in Nvidia on Monday.) In after-hours, Nvidia fell 3.7%. But if you’re an investor with a slightly longer time frame than the week (or the May 18 expiration of your call options), then today’s numbers should put a smile on your face.

No surprise: Oil moves higher on day after U.S. pulls out of Iran nuclear deal

No surprise: Oil moves higher on day after U.S. pulls out of Iran nuclear deal

Today crude oil is up, in a strong but orderly move. Two catalysts. First, yesterday President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would pull out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Second, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly dropped last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. Inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels. Oil analysts were looking for an increase in inventories of 1 million barrels.

SolarEdge Technologies beats on earnings and revenue; raises guidance

SolarEdge Technologies beats on earnings and revenue; raises guidance

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), a member of my Jubak Picks portfolio, reported first quarter earnings today after the New York markets closed of 87 cents a share, 7 cents a share better than Wall Street projections. Revenue climbed 82.4% year over year (and 10.8% from the prior quarter) to $209.9 million, above the consensus estimate of $204.4 million. Gross margin came in at a record 37.9%. Cash flow from operations was a record $64 million. For the second quarter the company guided Wall Street to expect revenue of $220 million to $230 million. The prior estimate for the quarter was $211.94 million.

Ignore the short-term oil volatility and continue to hold Pioneer Natural Resources for the long-term story

Ignore the short-term oil volatility and continue to hold Pioneer Natural Resources for the long-term story

Since Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) reported earnings on May 2–the company beat Wall Street estimates on earnings by 16 cents a share and reported revenue in-line with projections and up 56.5% year over year–there’s been so much noise in the oil markets. First, oil rallied this morning on speculation that on President Donald Trump will act to reimposed sanctions on Iran at the May 12 decision for re-certifying the deal or not. Then, oil gave back most of its gains, with West Texas Intermediate falling back below $70 a barrel, on a White House announcement that the President would announce a decision tomorrow. The speculation is that moving up the decision without the President releasing a Twitter barrage criticizing the deal means that he will keep the U.S. in the agreement in some form. But this is all speculation. Here are the two things that we actually know the should govern your decision to continue to hold Pioneer Natural Resources.

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, seems to signal continued gradual interest rate increases for rest of 2018

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, seems to signal continued gradual interest rate increases for rest of 2018

As expected by the financial markets, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. As expected the Fed didn’t really clarify its stance on inflation and interest rate increases, acknowledging inflation is close to target without indicating any intention to veer from their gradual tightening of monetary policy. But it left open the possibility that it might be willing to let inflation creep over 2% in the short run and for a short period of time

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