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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Middleby bounces back strong, up 14%, on Q2 earnings report today
That’s better. Today, before the market opened in New York, Middleby (MIDD) reported second quarter earnings of $1.63 a share. That was 7 cents a share above Wall Street projections and 20.&% higher than the $1.35 a share reported for the second quarter of 2017. Revenue climbed 15.3% year over year to $668.1 million, well above analyst consensus act $$645.9 million. On the news shares closed up 13.66% today to $120.18.
The two minor–but very important–flaws in Apple’s great quarter
If Apple (AAPL) hadn’t climbed to become the first $1 trillion company by market cap, these flaws probably wouldn’t be worth talking about. But when investors and traders have driven a stock’s valuation up to these levels–in clear anticipation that someone not too far down the road is going to be willing to pay more for these shares–it’s worth looking at any signs that, well, cracks might be showing up in the company that could change assumptions about the company’s unlimited upside.
Amazon to the earnings rescue after Facebook plunge
A day after Facebook (FB) told Wall Street analysts to expect slower growth for the rest of 2018 (and saw its stock plunge 18.96%) Amazon (AMZN) beat Wall Street earnings projections by a massive $2.58 a share, reporting earnings for the second quarter of $5.07 versus Wall Street projections for $2.49. Revenue of $52.9 billion was slightly short of the Wall Street consensus of $53.55. Revenue grew 39% in the quarter from the second quarter of 2017. The star this quarter was once again Amazon’s cloud business
Facebook closes down 18.96% on the day
Golly gee, what could be the big story in the U.S. markets today? How about the rout in Facebook (FB) shares–down 18.96% or $41.24 to $176 at the close. That $112 billion dollar drop in the market value of Facebook gives the company the record for the largest one day drop in a company’s market value. Intel (INTC) held the record previously with a $91 billion loss back in 2000. The plunge came as the company announced a growth stumble for the second quarter.
Adding AT&T (and its 6.5% yield) to my Dividend Portfolio
Today’s 4.51% drop in shares of AT&T (T) on a relatively mild revenue disappointment announced after the market close yesterday has considerably de-risked the stock. At the current 3:30 p.m. New York price of $30.25 the stock pays a dividend yield of 6.61%.
PayPal marks eventful week ahead of Wednesday earnings
Shares of PayPal Holdings have soared ahead of Wednesday, July 25, earnings–and the move is actually on some news. Today, for example, peer to peer payment competitor Snapcash announced that it would shut down. That’s one less competitor in a brutally competitive market. And hedge fund Third Point disclosed that it had taken a stake in PayPal
Raising target price on Microsoft in Jubak Picks Portfolio after earnings
Going into yesterday’s earnings report from Microsoft, I felt torn. On the one hand, the stock had hit an all time record high on the strong guidance for the June quarter back in April. How much higher could the stock go? Would guidance for the September quarter prove disappointing? On the other hand, the growth trend in Microsoft’s cloud business was extremely powerful and the company sure felt like it would continue. That argued for holding. With trepidation I held. Which in the event turned out to be the right decision.
Next earnings season test after Netflix? Microsoft
The Netflix (NFLX) drop yesterday (14.27%) and today (5.24%, which actually showed a recovery from the after-hours tumble) on the company’s disappointing guidance for the third quarter says that we’re still on track for a test of the earnings rally. But the test has become a bit more focused after the Netflix news. While that individual stock dropped on the disappointment, the market as a whole crept higher with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 0.4% today. The more focused test has now become, Does the market treat any miss as limited to the individual stock (as it has with Netflix) or does it begin to generalize any disappointment in the third quarter to the market as a whole?