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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
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It really, really helps if lots of traders and investors hate your stock going into earnings. Then you can, as Facebook (FB) did today, announce quarterly results that fall short on revenue ($13.73 billion versus consensus projections for $13.8 billion), and daily active users (1.49 billion globally in the third quarter versus projections for 1.5 billion) and then have your CEO say that markets are saturated in the developed world, and still see your stock go up 2.80% in after-hours trading. During the regular session today, October 30, Facebook shares climbed 2.91%
Autoliv shares move up as future outweighs past
Before the market open today, Autoliv (ALV) delivered disappointing earnings for the third quarter. But the stock still climbed on news that China is considering cutting the tax on car purchases to 5% from 10% in an effort to stimulate the country’s auto market at a time when overall economic growth is slowing.
I’m selling GE out of my Dividend Portfolio ahead of tomorrow’s earnings report
General Electric (GE) is scheduled to finally report third quarter earnings tomorrow. Wall Street is looking for earnings per share of 20 cents for the quarter on revenue of $29.94 billion. I’m expecting that new CEO Lawrence Culp, the former CEO of Jubak Picks portfolio member Danaher (DHR), and a very well seasoned operations guy, will announce a kitchen sink quarter with big write downs and a savage cut or elimination of the dividend. In the long run, I think Culp is the right person to turn General Electric around and I think there’s good chance that the shares will be a good turnaround play sometime in 2019. But in the shorter run, the elimination of the dividend will would mean that those dividend investors still holding the stock–which does still pay 4.07% even after a huge cut to the dividend thanks to a 34.5% drop in the share price in 2018 through October 26–and those mutual funds that hold the stock but have rules against owning shares that don’t pay dividends will be sellers on the news.
Amazon falls after hours on disappointing guidance
Shares of Amazon (AMZN) climbed 7.09%, 117.97 points, in the regular session today on hopes for a good earnings report after the market close. The company delivered an earnings beat for the current quarter, reporting earnings of $5.75 a share, $2.66 better than the $3.09 Wall Street analysts had expected. Revenue of $56.58 billion was up 29.3% year over year but below the $57.03 billion projected by analysts. The big sin, however, was the release of lower guidance for the fourth quarter
Incyte news continues to rebuild credibility of pipeline
Shares of Incyte (INCY) climbed 2.51% today on the announcement of positive results from a Phase 2 clinical trial, GEOMETRY mono-1, evaluating MET inhibitor capmatinib in 94 adult patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The company presented the data at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Munich. Licensee Novartis (NVS) has said it expects to file for approval with the U.S. Food & Drug Administration in 2019
PayPal pops on earnings report
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) closed up 9.42% today to $84.78 on third quarter earnings, announced after the close yesterday, that beat Wall Street projections. Analysts had expected 54 cents a share against a report of 58 cents a share. Revenue of $3.68 billion beat the consensus by $20 million. In the period the company added 9.1 million active accounts to bring the total for active accounts up to 254 million, a15% year over year increase. Payment transactions were up in numbers to 2.5 billion, s 27% increase year over year, and total payment volume climbed 24% year over year to $143 billion. One big driver for the better than expected results was PayPal’s Venmo person to person payments platform.
Oil sells off as Hurricane Michael goes from “rumor” to “fact”
Today’s drop in oil prices looks to me to be a classic buy on the rumor sell on the fact trade. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.81% today to $72.85. International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.68% to $82.72 a barrel.
Oil moves higher today on Hurricane Michael, IEA supply warning
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.7% today to close at $74.81 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.23% to $84.94 a barrel. The International Energy Agency warned of what it termed a “risky situation; the oil markets are entering the red zone,” according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Expensive energy is back at a bad time, when the global economy is losing momentum. We really need more oil.”