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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Amazon earnings results mean hotter war with Google and Facebook in digital ad space
Nothing wrong with 20% year over year revenue growth–unless, of course, you’re Amazon (AMZN). On Thursday, January 31, the company reported that revenue growth in the fourth quarter–the strongest retail quarter of the year–had at 20% come in at the high end of guidance but still weighed in at the slowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2015. Retail sales slowed to 18% from 35% and online sales growth accelerated to 14% from 11%.
Adding Emerson Electric to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Emerson Electric (EMR) bought the Intelligent Platforms, Internet of Things, division of General Electric (GE) at the end of 2018 as a result of GE CEO Larry Culp’s drive to right-size/dismantle GE. The acquisition is a reminder that Emerson Electric is the dominant U.S. player in automation for process manufacturing.
Buying this yen ETF for Jubak Picks to hedge market risk–and maybe gain 5% or so
Earlier today in a post “One consequence of change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar” I noted that a number of Wall Street and big international banks have forecast a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen climbing to 102 to the dollar and the euro to $1.31 by the end of 2019. Japan’s Nomura is projecting foreign selling of dollars. Tomorrow I’m adding the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) to my Jubak Picks portfolio.
Adding Intuitive Surgical to my long-term 50 Best Portfolio
Today, January 30, I added Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), one of my 10 Best Buys for After the Bear and an artificial intelligence pick from my Next 3 Big Things Special Report (both running on my subscription JubakAM.com site), to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
Danaher gives upbeat guidance at JPMorgan healthcare conference
Danaher (DHR) upped its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter on January 8. The company is scheduled to report fourth quarter earnings on January 29. At the conference the company said that its core revenue growth for 2018 to date was 6%. Core operating margins were up 100 basis points and gross margins climbed 60 basis points.
What a difference a week makes for biotech stocks
Last week the biotech sector seemed in freewill. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) had made a deal to buy Celgene (CELG) at a whopping 54% premium to Wednesday’s close and the sector dropped on the news. The prevailing theory was that the deal removed one hungry big drug company from the market for an acquisition in the sector. The bidding pool, in other words, had just gotten significantly smaller. This week, however, the thinking seems to be that the deal–and the size of the premium–validates the attractiveness of biotech acquisitions.
China ends its freeze on new game titles–good for Tencent soon-ish
China’s media regulators have ended a nine-month freeze on the approval of new video games in the $30 billion Chinese market. Global industry (and Chinese market leader) Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) didn’t have a title among the 80 new games approved, but the end of the freeze is good news for Tencent, which reported its first drop in profit in a decade thanks to the ban on new games.
Adding yen exposure to Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios
On December 27 I switched to the Invesco Currency Shares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) from the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA) in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio in an effort to get more yen exposure and a little more safety during this Bear market. Tomorrow I’m going to add this ETF to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios for the same reason. I don’t think the gains from this ETF will be eye-popping during the Bear–I’d be happy with 5%–but this does look like one of the few places to park money right now that promise any gains and solid safety.