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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Adding Wal-Mart to my Jubak Picks Portfolio

Adding Wal-Mart to my Jubak Picks Portfolio

Today February 27 I’m adding Wal-Mart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and making it the sixth pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earnings recession on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Only 25% of Wal-Mart’s revenue currently come from outside the United States–a plus in view of my projection of an earnings recession in the first three quarters of 2019 driven largely by slowing growth in economies other than the United States. And especially in China and Europe.In this environment I like Wal-Mart’s recent earnings beat and what that portends for the stability of Wal-Mart earnings and revenue during a period when stability has stock price value.And I like the recent catalysts to Wal-Mart’s revenue and earnings

Government action on drug prices seems far, far away

Government action on drug prices seems far, far away

The format was familiar: Seven CEOs sit in front of a Senate Committee probing their industry’s business practices. But whereas a Congressional hearing a decade ago marked a key moment in what was a costly public reckoning for the tobacco industry, today’s hearing produced little more than a consensus among Senators that drug pricing is complicated.It’s still likely that Congress and the White House will eventually move to constrain drug prices somehow, it’s clear from today’s hearing that “eventually” is far, far away.

Appeals court rules AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner can go ahead–why isn’t the stock up more today?

Appeals court rules AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner can go ahead–why isn’t the stock up more today?

The U.S. Appeals Court in Washington ruled today that AT&T’s (T) $85 billion takeover of Time Warner (now known as WarnerMedia) could go ahead. The court said in a 35-page opinion that the Justice Department had failed to establish that a lower-court judge had made a clear error when he rejected the government’s case to block the deal on antitrust grounds. The Justice Department said that it had no plans to seek further rulings. At the close today AT&T shares were up 0.29% to $31.22. AT&T shares are down 14.98% over the last 12 months. The stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. It yields 6.55%. So why, especially given the stock’s underperformance in the last year, didn’t AT&T climb more today?

Adding 50 Stocks pick VMC to Jubak Picks Portfolio as well

If politicians are to be believed Vulcan Materials (VMC) would be my perfect earnings recession stock. Revenue and earnings look on a steady uphill trend in 209, after carving out that track in 2018. The company’s business is almost totally domestic. And there’s even a catalyst–if politician can be believed. Vice-President Mike Pence told the National Governors Conference that a big administration infrastructure bill is on its way to passing Congress. That’s plausible because Democrats are known to favor an infrastructure package sine 1) the country needs it and 2) it would give them a positive achievement to run on in 2020. Unfortunately, the sources that cover Capital Hill say no one has seen any signs of a White House infrastructure bill and that the idea of a bill is bogged down in deep disagreement over how to pay for it. I don’t give an infrastructure bill better than 1 in 3 odds for 2019. But even without this specific catalyst the general news on infrastructure pending is good for Vulcan Materials.

Raising target price on Danaher in Jubak’s Picks after GE deal

Raising target price on Danaher in Jubak’s Picks after GE deal

I have had some doubts about whether Danaher (DHR) had enough of a catalyst to carry it upward during the slowdown in earnings predicted for at least the first three quarters of 2019? Yes, the company was selling off its dental unit, which would leave the company much closer to a pure play on water and tools for the drug sector (and other industrial users that depend on extra clean water.) But would that be enough? Well, this morning brought a much bigger catalyst. Danaher will buy General Electric’s (GE) biopharma business for $21.4 billion (or $20 billion after a tax break.)

ING yields 5.8% and may have turned the corner on share price in the last month

ING yields 5.8% and may have turned the corner on share price in the last month

I’m sure you’re happy with the 5.80% forward dividend yield on ING (ING). That dividend is why the stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. I’m also sure that you’re not happy with the loss in the stock’s price–down 13.64% year to date as of today’s close at $12.59. And down 13.78% since I added them to my Dividend Portfolio on March 7, 2017. But it looks like the shares bottomed on December 24 and are on the mend

Albemarle beats on earnings, sees rising lithium deman

Albemarle beats on earnings, sees rising lithium deman

After the market close yesterday, Albemarle (ALB) announced fourth quarter 2018 earnings that beat Wall Street earnings estimates of $1.47 by 6 cents a share and reported revenues grew 7.4% year over year to $921.7 million, against the $894.5 million consensus. The company also issued upside guidance for 2019 of $6.10 to $6.50  per share in earnings (analyst consensus projection was $6.14) and revenue of $3.65 billion to $3.85 billion (analyst consensus was $3.64 billion.) Today, on the news shares of Albemarle climbed 7.79% to $89.26.

Ya betta listen when Cummins talks business cycle

Ya betta listen when Cummins talks business cycle

Some companies you listen to because their stocks themselves are good investments–and because of their insight into a big chunk of the economy and trends in the economy. For example, I pay attention to what Deere (DE) says in its quarterly earnings report because the farm equipment maker is a great company (shares of Deere are a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio) and because the company keeps its finger on the pulse of farm incomes and the health of the farm sector. I follow Cummins (CMI) with a similar dual purpose.

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