%
Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
Click to expand...
Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
%
Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
Click to expand...
Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
%
Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
Click to expand...
Click to view the Dividend Income Portfolio
Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Updating Nektar ahead of a dangerous earnings season–and looking to add to positions on any plunge
On April 4 I made Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) #8 in my list of the 10 most dangerous stocks for earnings season and #4 on my list of 5 stock to buy on any plunge in my Special Report on my JubakAm.com subscription site. Here’s what I wrote in that Special Rerport. “Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) won’t miss Wall Street earnings projections when it reports its first quarter financial results on May 9–because the company won’t report any earnings. The consensus projection now has the company reporting a loss of 76 cents a share on revenue of $26.2 million. But that doesn’t mean biotech Nektar isn’t in danger of a big earnings season plunge.
Added Restaurant Brands to my Jubak’s Picks and Dividend Portfolios on February 21
On February 20 I made Restaurant Brands International (QSR) the first pick in my Special Report on JubakAM.com “10 stocks for a market worried about an earnings recession.” At the time I said I’d add the stock to both my Jubak Picks and Dividend Portfolios on February 21. But to add a stock to those portfolios I have to write a post specifically doing that and I didn’t. So I’m fixing that omission today.
Why are shares of China Southern Airlines up 12% today?
I can’t find any news that explains why shares of China Southern Airlines (ZNH) are up 12% today. The entire Chinese market is higher on positive news on the U.S.-China trade talks, but that’s been good for gains like 0.56% on JD.Com (JD) and 0.85% on CTRP International.com (CTRP) not 12%.
Selling Helmerich & Payne out of my Dividend Portfolio today
I named Helmerich & Payne (HP) #6 in my Special Report on the 10 most dangerous stocks for this earnings season on my paid JubakAM.com site. And today I’m selling the shares out of my Dividend Portfolio. After naming Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) #4 and Diamondback Energy (FANG) #5 in that Special Report, I asked What do those two oil shale producers have in common? They’re both cutting capital spending budgets. They’re not alone. Budgets are falling across oil shale geologies in the United States and that’s leading to a decline in the number of rigs working in the oil shale fields.
Selling Diamondback Energy out of my Jubak Picks portfolio today
Diamondback Energy (FANG) made #5 in my Special Report on the 10 most dangerous stocks this earnings season that I’m posting on my paid JubakAM.com site. And I’m selling it out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio today, April 1. If you’re looking for immediate warning signs for the upcoming quarter Diamondback Energy has them. When Diamondback Energy (FANG) reported fourth quarter earnings back in February, it missed Wall Street projections by 40 cents a share. Consensus estimates for the company’s May 7 earnings report call for earnings of $1.42 a share and revenue of $913.5 million. The stock is up 6.3% since the March 8 local low as of the close on March 29. That all sets up Diamondback for a potential short-term miss.
I’m selling Exxon Mobil out of my Dividend Portfolio as part of my annual portfolio rebalancing
I’m part way through the annual rebalancing of my Dividend Portfolio (with other portfolios to follow.) The initial stage of that process requires a close look at which of the stocks in the portfolio I’d like to keep for another year (based on their prospects for the next year) and which I’d sell because I don’t want to own them for the year ahead. So far, I’ve sold AT&T (T) out of the portfolio on a negative read on the company’s growth prospects and its huge debt load. But the effort is taking a little longer than usual this year because I find myself having to work out a strategy for dividend investing in the age of global warming.Today, I’m selling Exxon Mobile (XOM) out of the portfolio
Adding Dollar General to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
At a moment when all of brick and mortar retailing can seem to be suffering, Dollar General (DG) has announced that it will open 975 new stores in 2019 and remodel 1,000 existing stores. For 2019 capital expenditures are projected at $775 million to $825 million or about 3% of sales. Besides the new stores the company will also invest in speeding up the introduction of self-checkout lines, optimizing restocking practices to reduce in-store labor demands, and in-sourcing of more perishable food distribution. (Importantly 10 of the new stores will be new smaller formats aimed at younger customers.) In the fourth quarter sales climbed 8.5% year over year with same store sales up 4% year over year. Same store sales climbed on increase in the average transaction amount and in customer traffic. I think it’s safe to say that the new stores announcement is a statement of the company’s confidence in the future. So why is Dollar General able to buck the trend that has taken down so many other retailers?
Adding Digital Realty Trust to my Dividend Portfolio
On March 15 I added Digital Realty Trust (DLR) to my Special Report: 10 Stocks for an Earnings Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site. With this post, I’m also adding Digital Realty to my Dividend Portfolio. For Digital Realty Trust (DLR), a REIT that owns 198 data centers in 32 metropolitan areas with 2,300 customers, the case for stable earnings growth–one of my criteria for stocks to own during the earnings recession that’s looming for 2019–is pretty solid.