Select Page

The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
ArrowCircle100

%

Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

Click to expand...

Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio

I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

%

Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

Click to expand...

Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio

In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

%

Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

Click to expand...

Click to view the Dividend Income Portfolio

Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Amazon signals slowdown ahead; Wall Street doesn’t believe it

Amazon signals slowdown ahead; Wall Street doesn’t believe it

Great first quarter for Amazon (AMZN.) On Thursday, April 25, Amazon reported earnings of $7.09 a share, $2.43 a share better than Wall Street expected. The company’s cloud unit, AWS, reported a 42% increase in revenue, 59% jump in operating income and a surge in operating margin to 28.9%, up 320 basis points. The “other” segment, which is mostly advertising saw revenue gain 34% to $2.72 billion. EMarketer estimates that Amazon’s digital advertising business is now the third largest in the United States trailing only Alphabet’s Google and Facebook. But looking out further there were signs that the company might be moving back toward a period of of heavy investments that will cut into income.

Selling Independent Bank (IBCP) out of my Dividend Portfolio

Selling Independent Bank (IBCP) out of my Dividend Portfolio

When I posted earlier today that I would keep Bank of America (BAC) in my Dividend Portfolio I said the decision rested largely on the ways that Bank of America wasn’t like the “average” bank. Chief among these “ways” was the bank’s ability to use its fee income–from things like its investment banking unit and its online brokerage–to offset a slowdown growth in net interest income as a result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to put a hold on interest rate increases in the first nine months of 2019 before, maybe, cutting rates in the last quarter of the year. In contrast I added Independent Bank (IBCP) to my Dividend Portfolio because it was a well-managed plain vanilla bank. I’m selling it out of the Dividend Portfolio today because with the Fed’s change in direction, plain vanilla banks are not as attractive as they were in 2018.

2019 shaping up as a tough year for bank stocks–here’s why I’m holding Bank of America in my Dividend Portfolio

2019 shaping up as a tough year for bank stocks–here’s why I’m holding Bank of America in my Dividend Portfolio

2018 was supposed to be a good year for bank stocks. Rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve would provide a positive environment for banks, bank revenues, and bank earnings.2019 is likely to provide a negative backdrop for banks. The Fed is holding interest rates steady, the consensus on Wall Street believes, until the last quarter and then the most likely move is to cut rather than raise interest rates. (Bank revenues and earnings get a boost when rising interest rates increase the net interest margin on loans in general and mortgages in particular.) In general, I’d suggest cutting exposure to bank stocks in the months ahead. But that’s in general. When it comes to specifics I’d suggest holding onto shares of Bank of America (BAC).

Permian goes from tepid to red hot again on Chevron bid for Anadarko

Permian goes from tepid to red hot again on Chevron bid for Anadarko

Chevron (CVX) has agreed to buy Anadarko Petroleum (APC) for $33 billion in cash and stock. On the news shares of Anadarko are up 32.5% to $61.85. Shares of Chevron are off 4.91% to $119.81.Meaured by oil and natural gas production, the deal puts Chevron neck-and-neck with ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS). Measured on last year’s cash flow, the combined Chevron/Anadarko cash flow at $36.5 billion would have surpassed ExxonMobil’s. But there’s more than just size at the core of this deal.

Making Incyte #9 on my 10 most dangerous stocks for earnings season list–and #5 on my buy on any plunge list

Making Incyte #9 on my 10 most dangerous stocks for earnings season list–and #5 on my buy on any plunge list

Today on my JubakAM.com subscription site I made Incyte #9 in my 10 Most dangerous Stocks for Earnings Season Special Report–and #5 on my Buy on Any Plunge Bonus Special Report. Here’s what I wrote: “There’s a good chance that Incyte (INCY) will miss Wall Street earnings and revenue projections when it reports first quarter results on April 30. That’s because Incyte is a biotech adolescent. Think awkward.

Copper meeting bullish on projected supply deficit

Copper meeting bullish on projected supply deficit

The big Cesco copper conference in Santiago, Chile, has been remarkably bullish considering worries about global economic growth and the Chinese economy. That’s because there looks like a significant gap in the development of new supplies in 2019 and 2020 that could be sufficient to push up prices in 2021 and 2022 before new mines go into full operation in 2022 and 2023.

Jim’s Daily Email Alerts

Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!

Sign Up to Read Jim’s Newest “Buy/Hold/Sell” Posts

Most Popular Tags

50 Stocks portfolioAALAAPLairline stocksAI stocksALBAMATAMDAMZNAppleASMLauto industryauto stocksBABABACbanksbank stocksbear marketbear market rallybiotech stocksbond bear marketbondsbounceBrazilbuy on the dipCCATChinaChina coronavirusChina economyChina slowdownChina stimulusChina stocksChina trade warchip stocksCHKCitigroupCloud stocksCMIcommoditiescommodity stocksconsumer spendingconsumer stocksCOPcoppercopper stockscoronaviruscoronavirus economycoronavirus recessioncoronavirus stimuluscoronavirus vaccinecorrectionCPICPI inflationcredit crunchCSCOCumminsCVXDALDEdebt ceilingDHRDISdividend incomedividend portfoliodividend stocksdollardrug stocksearningsearnings seasoneconomic recoveryelectric car stockselectric vehicle stocksemerging marketsenergy stocksEQNRETFseuroFFANGFBFCXFederal Reservefertilizerfinancial crisisfoodFQVLFfree offerGDPGLDglobal economyglobal financial crisisGMgoldGOOGgovernment shutdownhedgeshousing stocksincome investingINCYIndiainflationinitial claims for unemploymentINTCIntelinterest rate cutsinterest ratesiPhoneiron oreJapanJCIJDjobsJPMJubak Dividend IncomeJubak PicksJubak Picks 50Jubak Picks portfolioKOlithium stocksLNGLong-term InvestingMGMminingmortgage crisisMSFTnatural gasnatural gas stocksNFLXNKTRNVDANXPIoiloil drilling and service stocksoil pricesoil shale stocksoil stocksoil supplyOPECoptionsPANWPCE inflationPeople's BankPEPPerfect 5 ETF PortfolioPFEPOTPowell PutPXDPYPLQCOMRallyre-opening economyRe-opening rallyreal estaterecessionrecoveryretail salesretail stocksrotationSCCOSEDGsellSIXstock pickstock picksSWKStariffstax cutsTCEHYtechnical analysistechnology stockstech stocksTreasuriesTreasury bondsTreasury yieldsTSLATSMTWLOU.S.-China trade talksU.S./China trade warU.S. dollarU.S. economyunemploymentutility stocksVALEvideovideosVIXVMCvolatilityVolatility Portfoliowater stocksWFCWMTXOMyenyield curveYouTube videosyuan