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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Nvidia reports after the close today–watch to see if it misses on earnings to create a buying opportunity
Nvidia (NVDA) will report first quarter earnings today, May 16, after the close of New York markets. Wall Street is expecting the company to report earnings of 81 cents a share–which would be a drop of 60.5% year over year–on revenue of $2.195 billion, a decline of 31.6% year over year.
Recent weakness good opportunity to pick up Disney for patient, long-term investors
Every so often the calendar and the movie release schedule give patient long-term investors a chance to buy Disney (DIS) on some mild weakness. That’s where we are now.
Tariffs up, talks end, Chinese retaliation next
Whatever the ultimate end point of the trade talks between the United State and China, the next step is almost certainly the announcement of retaliatory measures by China in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the United States to 25% from 10%. The likely step isn’t the imposition of tit for tat tariffs on U.S. exports to China. Instead look for Chinese moves that are easier to implement and that hit hard at U.S. energy and agricultural exports.
Middleby sees 17.4% revenue growth, stock pulls back slightly on earnings miss
Yesterday, May 8, Middleby reported earnings of $1.24 a share, 10 cents a share below Wall Street estimates. Revenue for the first quarter climbed 17.4% from the first quarter of 2018 to $686.8 million, slightly above the $683.01 million Wall Street projection. Gross margin climbed to 37.5% from 36.2%.Today, May 9, the shares closed at $135.24, down 1.36%. The stock is a member of my long-term 50 Best Stocks Portfolio. Middleby is up 180.23% as of the close today since I added it to the portfolio on May 3, 2013. This wasn’t a bad quarter, but it didn’t knock my socks off either.
Pioneer Natural Resources gains on earnings beat, production increase, and asset sales
A complicated but very positive quarter for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.) The stock, a member of my long-term 50 Best Stocks Portfolio, climbed 3.92% today to $153.77. First, after the close on May 6, the company announced earnings of $1.83 a share, 20 cents a share better than Wall Street projections.
Jubak Pick SolarEdge beat on earnings yesterday, gains 23% today
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) reported earnings of 64 cents a share after the New York markets closed yesterday. That was 7 cents a share above Wall Street projections. The company reported first quarter revenue of $271.9 million, up 29.5% year over year, and ahead of Wall Street projections of $266.11 million in revenue. But it was the company’s guidance for the second quarter that popped the shares.
Kinder Morgan, a Dividend Portfolio pick, raises quarterly payout by 25%
On April 17, Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported first quarter 2019 results that were a penny below Wall Street estimates (at 24 cents a share) and that missed revenue projections at $3.43 billion versus the $3.63 billion consensus. (That amounted to a 0.3% year over year gain in revenue.) But the company still left dividend investors smiling at the outlook for all of 2019.
Vulcan Materials beats on earnings–up 4.4% even without infrastructure deal in Washington
Before the New York market opened this morning Vulcan Materials (VMC) announced earnings of 46 cents a share, excluding one time items. That was a full 9 cents a share above Wall Street expectations. Revenue of $996.5 million was up 16.6% year over year and beat Wall Street estimates of $915.68 million. The company told Wall Street to expect earnings per share of $4.55 to $5.05. The current consensus projection for the year was $4.78 a share.