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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Oil rallies on U.S. inventory drawdown, record U.S. exports, slip in U.S. production–and, oh yes, those pesky tensions with Iran
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is now up 10% for the week following on a 2.44% jump in price to $59.24 a barrel today. International benchmark Brent crude gained 1.94% to $66.31 a barrel. Continued tensions between the United States and Iran, of course, have kept the trend pointing upwards. But today’s big move is a result of a surprise drawdown, announced this morning by the Energy Information Administration, in U.S. crude inventories of 12.8 million barrels from the level of the prior week.
Raising target price on Tencent Holdings , #4 in my 10 Best Picks for the Next 6 months of 2019 Special Report on JubakAM.com
In my first three picks for my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Next Six Months of 2019 on my subscription site JubakAM.com I’ve focused on index ETFs that, in my opinion, will ride the big trend of lower interest rates higher in 2019. In other words, these are picks that go with the dominant market and economic trend. For my next three picks, I’m looking for stocks, ETFs, or whatever that do indeed have the macro trends at their backs but that also have significant internal catalysts that will drive the price higher even if trends turn out to be weaker than (or contrary to) expectations. China’s Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) is a good example of this group.
$416 billion for seawalls in the United States by 2040–that’s a lot of gravel sales for Vulcan Materials
In the next 20 years spending on seawalls to protect communities could cost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system. Total spending to defend against rising ocean levels could run to $416 billion in the next 20 years, according to a report from the Center for Climate Integrity. Coming as it does just days after the Trump administration gutted the Obama administration’s regulations to reduce carbon emissions from power plants, the report raises a number of rather “interesting” questions.
Adding Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF to my Picks Portfolio
Despite the challenging words from Fed chair Jerome Powell pledging that that he will serve his full term, I think it’s likely that the Trump White House sees the continued shift of the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates to neutral to a bias toward interest rate cuts in 2019 as a sign that the Federal Reserve is yielding to political pressure from President Donald Trump. My observation of this administration leads me to conclude that when Trump thinks he sees a weakness in his opponent, he ramps up the pressure. Winning re-election in 2020 depends to a large extent on the health of the U.S. economy, which increases the President’s motivation to press the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2019.
Apple contemplates moving some production from China–but not back to the United States
President Donald Trump has argued that slapping higher tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States would bring jobs back to this country–if China didn’t agree to a new trade deal–as companies moved factories in order to avoid the higher tariffs.
According to a report today from Japan’s Nikkei, however, companies that supply Apple (AAPL) are indeed thinking about moving production lines from China–but not to the United States
I added Parsley Energy to my Jubak Picks Portfolio back on April 17–but neglected to post it to the portfolio
Back on April 17, I made Parsley Energy (PE) my first disruption in the oil sector pick in my Special Report on Disrupted Sectors on my JubakAM.com subscription site. I didn’t actually post that pick to the portfolio on all my sites, however, and this post, excerpted from the Special Report, is a fix for that error. Parsley Energy traded at $20.83 on April 17 and it closed at $17.05 on June 14.
Two more oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman; here’s how financial assets moved and which might be interesting ahead
For the second time in a month two oil tankers came under attack in international waters near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. One ship, a Japanese-owned tanker carrying methanol, was apparently attacked by limpet bombs attached to its hull or by a mine. The second ship, owned by Norway’s Frontline and carrying naphtha, was apparently hit by a torpedo. The attacks come just a day after Iranian-backed forces in Yemen fired a missile at an airport in Saudi Arabia. And they were timed to coincide with the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Tehran in an attempt to lower tensions in the region between the United States and Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran or Iranian proxies for the attack. The Iranian government disclaimed involvement and suggested that “other regional players,” which in this situation was probably meant to indicate Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, might have staged the attack in order to provoke hostilities between the United States and Iran. As you’d expect, oil prices moved up today but not by as much as you might think after yesterday’s tumble in oil. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.80% to $52.06 a barrel. International benchmark Brent was up 2.15% to $61.26 a barrel. The gains weren’t enough to make up for yesterday’s drop of 4% and 3.89%, respectively in the two benchmarks. That disparity is an indicator of how deep worries are about a slowing global economy and last week’s increase in U.S. oil inventories.
Nektar Therapeutics bumps along ahead of August FDA action on new non-addictive opioid
Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) have been bumping along between $32 and $34 for two months now, but the company continues to take steps to prepare for the likely August approval of NKTR-181, a new non-addictive opioid. Nektar has formed Inheris Biopharma, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Nektar, to handle the launch preparation and commercialization of NKTR-181, the first opioid molecule designed to provide the extremely effective pain relief of an opioid without the high levels of euphoria of existing opioids that lead to addiction. NKTR is currently under review at the U.S. Food & Drug Administration with an FDA advisory panel meeting in early August ahead of an August 29 hearing that I expect to result in approval for the new drug.