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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Adding silver to my market hedges: Buying First Majestic Silver for my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios
Way back last Friday, July 19, in my Friday Trick or Trend post on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I argued for adding silver to a portfolio because 1) it is a good hedge for portfolios in the second half of 2019, and because 2) silver, after lagging gold for the first half of 2019 , looks to be playing catch up now. On Thursday, July 18, silver futures on the Comex had used a fifth straight day of gains to record their highest finish since June 29, 2018. In that post I promised that I would add a silver vehicle to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios. Here’s that pick: First Majestic Silver (AG).
Market rally today expands on last week’s “Microsoft rally”
Technology stocks drove the market higher today in an expansion of last week’s subdued but important “Microsoft rally” on that company’s earnings. With earnings from Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) on tap on Wednesday and Thursday, the odds are that technology news will be enough to keep the market in an upward tend until the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate move on July 31.
Adding Tyson Foods as last of my 5 Value Picks Special Report–and adding to my 50 Stocks Portfolio
Today I’m making Tyson Foods (TSN) the fifth and final value pick in my Special Report 5 Value Stocks for a Market at an All-time High.That Special Report ran on my subscription JubakAM.com site. And I’m adding the shares to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. It’s clear that shares of Tyson Foods are cheap.
Adding China Mobile to my 50 Stocks Portfolio
Recently in my Special Report on Disrupted Sectors on the coming 5G disruption to the telecom and Internet space on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I noted that China would be relatively early to roll out 5G capacity and handsets and that because of that timing and China’s huge wireless phone market, the country would be a leader in 5G technology and its global consequences. And I said that I would be adding China’s largest phone operator China Mobile (CHL) to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. Which I did today July 11. But China Mobile crossed my radar screen for another reason.
In the shortish short term does anything matter for U.S. financial markets except for the Fed?
Think about it this way: The bulk of investors and traders believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at both the July 31 and September 18 central bank meetings. A significant minority believes that the Fed will deliver more than just two 25 basis point cuts. Maybe, the odds now say, one of those will be a 50 basis point cut. We’re in the midst of a rally–based on a reversal of Fed interest rate policy and built on expectations of those Federal Reserve cuts–that has taken the broad U.S. stock market and narrower indexes such as the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite to one all time high after another. So why would you sell ahead of the September 18 Fed meeting?
PepsiCo beats on earnings as usual
Before the open today, July 9, PepsiCo (PEP) announced second quarter earnings ahead of analyst expectations. But with the stock already up 21.69% for 2019 to date, the market shrugged. PepsiCo shares fell 0.62% at the close. PepsiCo has beaten analyst earnings projections in every quarter except for one stretching back to the second quarter of 2014. PepsiCo is a member of my 50 Stocks long-term portfolio. The shares are up 143.56% since I added them to the portfolio on December 30, 2008.
Correction: I’m adding DuPont to my 50 Stocks (not Dividend) Portfolio
I’d be willing to be dollars to donuts that U.S. stocks won’t repeat their first half performance–up 17.4% on the Standard & Poor’s 500–in the second half of the year. It’s hard for me to find a catalyst that isn’t already priced into the market–from interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war to Goldilocks growth of 2% with inflation below 2%. My opinion is that the second half of the year is likely to see a consolidation of the gains of the first half with U.S. stocks wandering but not finishing much higher than they are now. Which is why I’ve been looking for value stocks lately, especially value stocks that pay dividends. And that’s why I made DuPont (DD) the third pick in my Special Report 5 Value Stocks for a Market Near All-time Highs on my subscription JubakAm.com site, and why I’ll be adding it to my 50 Stocks Portfolio on July 8.
Adding Palo Alto Networks, #6 in my 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019 on JubakAM.com, to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios tomorrow
Today I made Palo Alto Networks (PANW) the sixth pick in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019 on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Tomorrow, June 28, I’ll add these shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my Volatility Portfolio with a target price of $260. The stock closed at $204.89 today, June 27. Catalysts to drive this shares of this cyber security company higher? Let me count them.