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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio

I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio

In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Click to view the Dividend Income Portfolio

Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Selling Pfizer out of my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow on Dem’s proposed drug-pricing bill

Selling Pfizer out of my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow on Dem’s proposed drug-pricing bill

Why introduce legislation that will dead on arrival in the Republican controlled Senate? Because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats know that controlling drug prices is extremely popular with voters. And a proposal that is a serious effort to lower drug prices is a hammer that can be used over and over again to beat up President Donald Trump and Republican House and Senate candidates during the 2020 election.

Barrick Gold at the junction of positive macro and micro trends; raising my target price

Barrick Gold at the junction of positive macro and micro trends; raising my target price

It’s by no means a guarantee of gains, but owing shares of a company that is riding the wave of positive macro and micro trends does indeed usually result in solid profits. On the macro side, Barrick Gold has global trends pointing toward toward higher gold prices as on lower interest rates as central banks try to jump start growth in slowing economies with the spark of cash, cash, and more cash. It can also look forward to rising gold prices as investors worried about recessions, inflated currencies, and financial market risk look to find a safe haven.

Riding the Popeye’s chicken sandwich higher; raising target price for Restaurant Brands International

Riding the Popeye’s chicken sandwich higher; raising target price for Restaurant Brands International

Today I’m raising my target price for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) because I think the new Popeye’s chicken sandwich has legs. A social media storm has accompanied the introduction of a new chicken sandwich at Popeye’s to compete with Chick-fil-A that has led to the sandwich selling out after massive sales. The chicken couldn’t have crossed the road at a better time for Restaurant Brands International, the parent of the Burger King, Tim Hortons and Popeyes fast food food chains.

Apple sketches in September product launches–will they be enough?

Apple sketches in September product launches–will they be enough?

Two big clouds of doubt hover over shares of Apple (AAPL).First, will the continuing U.S.-China trade war take another bite out of Apple’s China revenue? And/Or disrupt Apple’s China supply chain, saddling the company with higher tariffs on its made in China iPhones? Back in January shares of Apple plunged to the lowest price in a year-and-a-half after the company cut its revenue outlook for the first time in almost two decades, citing weaker demand in China. Second, will Apple’s new product announcements in September be exciting enough to put some energy into Apple’s sales?

Step #1 (of 5) to get your portfolio ready for the Next Big One–Special Report update

Step #1 (of 5) to get your portfolio ready for the Next Big One–Special Report update

Last night on my JubakAM.com subscription site I added Step #1 to my Special Report 5 Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big? The post below is a cut and paste of the material I added to the Special Report. I’m posting it separately here to make it accessible to readers on my JugglingWithKnives.com and Jubak Picks sites. (If you want to read the entire Special Report and the complete 5 Steps you can subscribe with the 20% off offer that I sending out tomorrow morning. Meantime, I hope you find this excerpt useful on a very volatile day.) In my macro picture, I wrote, “you’ll find the outline of my first two steps to getting ready for the next big one, be that big one a recession or a credit crunch or best yet some combination of the two.Step #1: Lay the Next Big One risk foundation.

Nektar’s plunge is a buying opportunity–so I’m adding more to my Volatility Portfolio

Nektar’s plunge is a buying opportunity–so I’m adding more to my Volatility Portfolio

What we know about Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) is pretty clear. On Thursday of last week, August 8, trading in shares of Nektar were halted on news from the company had manufacturing problems that resulted in some patients enrolled in the clinical trials for the company’s NKTR-214 cancer drug receiving drugs that were less effective than the correctly manufactured drug. Two of the 22 batches of NKTR-214–Lots 2 and 5 to be precise–were less effective than the other 20 batches and patients given those batches did not respond as well in the trials as those patients who received the correctly formulated batches.

SolarEdge Technologies hits all time high on earnings beat, raising my target price in my Picks portfolio

SolarEdge Technologies hits all time high on earnings beat, raising my target price in my Picks portfolio

Wednesday, August 7, SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) reported second quarter revenue of $325 million, up 43% from the second quarter of 2018 and ahead of analyst projections of $315.5 million in revenue. Adjusted earnings rose 15% year over year to 94 cents a share, well above Wall Street estimates of 73 cents a share. The company told analysts to look for third quarter revenue of $395 million to $410 million. Analysts forecasts had been for $324 million for the third quarter. Not exactly surprising that shares of SolarEdge were up 23.9% Wednesday to an all-time high. (The shares gained another 0.65% Thursday.)

Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points; financial markets want more, more, more

Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points; financial markets want more, more, more

Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee cut the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. That’s pretty much what the financial markets had been expecting–although a sizable minority of investors and traders had been hoping for a deeper cut of 50 basis points. Stocks fell, not so much on the results of the meeting itself but on “clarifying” remarks from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

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