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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

Portfolio Related Posts

Selling Visa out of Dividend Portfolio to make room for new dividend strategy and picks

Selling Visa out of Dividend Portfolio to make room for new dividend strategy and picks

My first sell of the day. Way back in November 2019–if you remember a period when projected earnings growth was strong and before the coronavirus recession–I argued for a dividend strategy that focused on companies with fast growing and solidly predictable earnings that were, in my opinion, likely to raise their dividends significantly over the next five years or more. It didn’t matter all that much, I argued, that these stocks didn’t pay a big yield now. Buy them now for the future dividend increases. And rather than focusing on the steady dividend growers in the S&P Dividend Aristocrats list, I added stocks like Visa (V) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW) because if their stronger projected earnings growth. Well, it’s a new world now.

Disney misses Wall Street projections on earnings; signals worse to come

Disney misses Wall Street projections on earnings; signals worse to come

How did Wall Street analysts get Disney (DIS) earnings today so wrong? Analysts had been projecting earnings of 86 cents a share. The company reported earnings of just 60 cents for the company’s second quarter. The bigger-than-Disney takeaway here is “Wonder if it would be prudent to suspect analysts are still way high on earnings for a lot of companies? I mean Disney isn’t exactly an obscure underfollowed stock.”

Adding Coke to my Dividend Portfolio

Adding Coke to my Dividend Portfolio

Today’s shocking announcement from Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) that it would cut its 10% dividend, to 16 cents a share is a brutal reminder of one of the big challenges facing dividend investors. Royal Dutch shares were down 12.02% as of 3 p.m. Nw York time today, April 30. A drop like that wipes out a lot of quarterly dividend payouts. And there are a lot of dividend cuts going around lately in the coronavirus recession. But the risk of a dividend cut isn’t the only challenge for investors looking for income from dividends.

Selling Restaurant Brands into today’s “another coronavirus rescue bill” bounce

Selling Restaurant Brands into today’s “another coronavirus rescue bill” bounce

There was that little detour for the complete and utter meltdown in the oil market, but now I’m resuming my plan to sell into the “re-opening the economy rally.” That rally is in its last stages I believe, with its life extended by another coronavirus rescue bill, the prospect of yet another major rescue bill (these days a $500 billion package counts as small  change), and the possibility of more action from the Federal Reserve to shore up one part of the financial market or another. Restaurant Brands (QSR), the owner of the Burger King, Tim Horton’s, and Popeye’s brands, was up 6.28% today as of 1 p.m. New York time. It might have further to run if this bounce lasts for a few days more, but I’m going to use this as an exit in the position.

Nidec splits 2/1

Nidec splits 2/1

No, the problems in the Chinese auto industry–a big customer for Nidec’s (NJDCY) small motors and electric drive trains–didn’t suddenly spike and cut Nidec’s share price in half. The Japanese company executed a 2/1 split on April 9.

Disney delays release dates on entire Marvel movie slate–including Black Widow

Disney delays release dates on entire Marvel movie slate–including Black Widow

You know that Disney (DIS) is really serious about the likelihood of continued social distancing measures disrupting movie going for months when it delays the release date of Black Widow, once intended as the tentpole of its summer schedule. Black Widow has been pushed back to November 6–a compromise in my opinion that still gives the studio room for more delay before the holiday movie season. With Black Widow delayed all other Disney/Marvel dominoes have tumbled.

Selling infrastructure play United Rentals out of Jubak Picks into today’s rally

Selling infrastructure play United Rentals out of Jubak Picks into today’s rally

United Rentals (URI) is a great stock to own when construction projects are booming–whether infrastructure or housing. And it was a seriously undervalued stock back in January when I added it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. But in a Bear Market nobody cares about undervalued. It’s just sell and then sell some more on every worry about a coronavirus recession

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