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The return on my Jubak Picks Portfolio
from May 1997 through the end of 2019: 584%
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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019

Jubak’s Picks

Buy and hold? Not really.

Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.

So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?

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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.

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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019

Top 50 Stocks

This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally  based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.

Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.

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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.

To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.

You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives

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Dividend Income Performance 2021

Dividend Income

Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.

Why bother?

Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?

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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.

For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.

CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.

Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.

Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.

But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.

With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.

But wouldn’t ya know it?

Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute  with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.

I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.

Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.

The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.

Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.

What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.

And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.

The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.

How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.

That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.

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Ericsson goes into tomorrow’s earnings riding a lot of momentum

Ericsson goes into tomorrow’s earnings riding a lot of momentum

For  the second quarter Ericsson (ERIC) reported a 43% positive earnings surprise. Could the company surprise again tomorrow? Analysts are looking for the company to report third quarter earnings on October 21 of 16 cents a share. That would be a huge improvement of 184.2% from the third quarter of 2019. But given Ericsson’s momentum during the quarter, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a solid beat above estimates driven by global wins with telecom companies for 5G network equipment..

Pfizer says it will be ready to file for an emergency use application for its coronavirus vaccine by the third week in November

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In a public letter Pfizer (PFE) CEO Albert Bourla wrote that the company hopes to have initial data from its Phase 3 clinical trail of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of October and that it will wait until the third week in November to file an emergency use authorization application with the U.S. Food & Drug Administration.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing raises 2020 revenue forecast again

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported earnings of 90 cents per American depositary receipt today on sales of  $12.14 billion for the company’s September quarter. Net income climbed 36% year over year. Analysts had expected the company to earn 81 cents an ADR and to show sales of $11.93 billion. In the September quarter of 2019 the company earned 62 cents per ADR and recorded revenue of $9.45 billion. The company also raised its outlook for full year 2020 revenue for a second time this year to growth of more than 30%.

Catching up on my October 5 buy of Twilio

Catching up on my October 5 buy of Twilio

This is something of a catch up post. On October 5 I added Twilio (TWLO) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. I announced that buy in a post on October 2 and then again in my Special Report: “Your Investing Guide for the Next 6 Dangerous Stock Market Months” on my JubakAm.Com site I noted it as a buy. But somehow I never quite posted it to those two portfolios. Something I’m fixing today.

Adding Southern Copper with its 3.33% dividend to the (what else?) Dividend Portfolio

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In my just completed Special Report: “Your Investment Guide for the Next 6 Dangerous Stock Market Months” on my JubakAM.Com site I wrote that I’d look to add some coronavirus recovery stocks to my portfolio during weakness in the November time period–looking looking toward better economic growth, a stimulus package, and positive news on a vaccine in 2021. The idea is to find stocks that will begin to anticipate a 2021 recovery–based on a coronavirus stimulus package in January and the wide deployment of an effective coronavirus vaccine beginning with applications to the U.S Food & Drug Administration in late to mid-November.

Twilio jumps 13% today on increase in company estimates of sale growth

Twilio jumps 13% today on increase in company estimates of sale growth

Twilio (TWLO), which makes cloud-based software, climbed 13% today after analysts raised price-target after Thursday’s investors day event. (For example Morgan Stanley raised its price garget for Twilio to $270 from $240. I would note the stock closed at $290 today, October 2.) At the session, Twilio said that it expects sales growth of better than 30% a year in each of the next four years. Wall Street had been looking for 25% growth in 2021 and 23% growth in 2022.

Lithium stocks bounce back as market downgrades Tesla threat

Lithium stocks bounce back as market downgrades Tesla threat

On Wednesday, September 23, shares of Albemarle (ALB) and SQM (SQM), the two dominant lithium producers in the world, fell 11.56% and 11.82%, respectively, on an announcement at Tesla’s (TSLA) Battery Day that the electric car maker would start its own lithium mining operation in an effort to drive down battery costs. (The company also announced that it is developing a new battery technology that would reduce the amount of lithium used in a rechargeable battery.) Getting the price of a battery down by reducing costs and/or improving energy density is the key to making an electric car economically competitive–without subsidies–with a fossil-fuel vehicle. On Thursday, September 24, however, Albemarle shares closed up 3.59% and SQM gained 2.73% in a generally lackluster market. Why the difference?

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