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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)
With the VIX “fear index” falling back closer to “normal” levels–it dropped to 21.89 yesterday from 31.12 on December 1–it sure feels like the extreme volatility of the end of November and early December is on the ebb. The move to yesterday’s 21.89 close from December 1 was was a surge of 30% in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index in a week. This move away from panic follows on a jump in the “fear index” in the week from November 24 to December 1 of 67% in the opposite direction. I’d be surprised if we don’t see another surge in volatility in the rest of December or in January with what promises to be a crazy earnings season, but even if volatility holds at something like today’s level–slightly elevated from the historical averages but in the rough ballpark–don’t forget that volatility has a long tail. Volatility, in fact, creates volatility. And not least of all in individual stocks.
Adding Bristol-Myers Squibb to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow
As I noted in my posts over the weekend, I think that along with all the general volatility and the rotation away from high moment and higher price-to-earnings ratio technology stocks, the last week or so saw a rotation into “safe” haven stocks such as utilities and Big Pharma. Which is one of the reason I’m adding Bristol-Myers stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as of December 7
Watch my new YouTube video: 4 Picks for the Omicron Wave
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventy-fifth YouTube video “4 Picks for the Omicron Wave” went up today.
Be careful out there: This is one insanely volatile market both on the up and down sides
Want to know exactly how volatile the stock market is right now? Yesterday investors and traders got news that the first case of the Omicron Variant had been recorded in California. On that, and some “We’ll tighten sooner than expected” remarks from Fed officials, stocks plunged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing a 972 point swing from high at 11:25 and 34,994 to the close a 34,022. Today investors and traders got news of a second case–a Minnesota man who had attended an anime conference in New York. And the stock market didn’t just shrug; it rallied big time with the Standard & Poor’s 500 closing up 1.42%, the Dow Industrials u 1.85%, and the small cap Russell 2000 ahead 2.74%.
A stock isn’t a buy just because it’s cheaper than it was–Lessons from Disney on when to buy on the dip
After a huge rally like we’re had this year, it’s easy to fall into one of the most common buy on the dip traps. Just because a stock is cheaper than it was, it’s not necessarily a bargain. There’s nothing that says a stock has to return to its previous price after a dip. And especially that it has to return to that former price on your schedule. Let me use Disney (DIS), one of the 25 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter on my paid subscription site JubakAm.com, as an example.
Danaher is Pick #6 for end of the year momentum and raising target price in Jubak Picks
It’s hard today, November 30, to find any stock with the kind of momentum that I’m looking for in the last month of 2021. Apple (AAPL) looks like a good possibility, which is why I made it Pick #5 in my Market Melt Up Special Report on my subscription site JubakM.com and why I added the shares to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. Danaher’s (DHR) momentum is less obviously–especially on a day like today when the stock has closed down 1.87% to $320.42. But take a step back.
Why is Apple green today when everything else is red?
Even as losses accelerate for almost all stocks as we head into the close today–the Standard & Poor’s 500, which was down 1.31% at 2:30 In New York had moved to a loss of 1.74% as of 3:30–shares of Apple (AAPL) continue to hang onto the green.
Selling Zebra Technologies out of Jubak Picks tomorrow
When I bought Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) back on June 28, 2021, I thought the stock was moderately over-valued. But that, like many over-valued stocks with momentum, it would move higher. I set a target price then of $596 a share. Well, moderately over-valued has become more seriously over-valued. Morningstar calculates that the stock traded at a 37% premium before the 2.79% gain today, November 29.