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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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Click to View the Jubak’s Picks Portfolio
I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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Click to view the Top 50 Stocks Portfolio
In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Click to view the Dividend Income Portfolio
Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Airline stocks take another whack on fears that higher jet fuel prices will require many to sell stock to raise capital
As far as I’ve been able to discover, it was a research note from Wolfe Research that began the negative “rethink.” Wolfe forecast that the airlines including United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) were burning cash so fast because of the jump in the cost of jet fuel that they might need to sell stock to secure more liquidity.. The worry isn’t outlandish. Oil broke above $115 a barrel (for U.S. West Texas Intermediate) today and JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have both recently projected that crude could rise to $185 a barrel by the end of 2022. Today shares of American Airlines (AA) were off 7.13%. United Airlines (UAL) dropped 9.07%. And Delta Air Lines (DAL) was down 5.63%.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Auto Supply Stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and seventh YouTube video “Trend of the Week Auto Supply Stocks” went up today. Two big deals for auto suppliers have Wall Street excited! Last week, Cummins (CMI) bought Meritor (MTOR) and Apollo Group bought Tenneco (TEN). These stocks jumped up in part because they were so undervalued and cheap before, but it also points to a larger trend: with the ongoing transition to EVs, makers of auto parts that can be put to use in that process will be increasingly important. That’s why I’m recommending you look at Dana (DAN), BorgWarner (BWA), and American Axle (AXL). As well as Cummins, the buyer in one of these deals
Putin strikes back at Western sanctions; stock market expects more as cybersecurity stocks soar (and I’m adding SentinelOne to my Jubak Picks Portfolio today)
You didn’t expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to just shrug at Western sanctions that now include theU.S. Treasury clamping serious restrictions on Russia’s central bank, did you? Putin has banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts. Russia has $478 billion in external debt. Much of that is now in danger of default. (It’s not clear to me how this helps the Russian economy. Anyone want to lend or do business with a country that says, “Hey, forget about getting paid?) Today in New York trading, it’s clear that U.S. traders and investors don’t think these moves are Putin’s last. Cybersecurity stocks are soaring. And why not since Russia and it hacker gangs are about to demonstrate exactly why everybody needs to buy more security software. Which is why I’m adding shares of SentinelOne to my Jubak Picks Portfolio today.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Pioneer Natural Resources
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick Pioneer Natural Resources” went up today. This week my Quick Pick is Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). I don’t like oil and gas companies in the long term (hello, global warming), but in the short term I like companies that are exercising restraint in spending on further exploration and development. With oil prices rising, Pioneer is set to generate high positive cash flows in the short term. That surplus will be distributed in the company’s two-tier dividend structure, giving investors a nice pot of money. For that reason, I’ve added Pioneer to my Dividend Portfolio
I’m adding Alcoa to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as a hedge against Ukraine risk and as a commodity boom play
Today I’m adding shares of Alcoa (AA) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. At 3:10 p.m. today, February 18, the shares were up 2.01% on the day. My target price for the shares is $93. The pick is a short-term hedge against sanctions against Russia if the Ukraine/Russia conflict escalates further. Russia supplies 6% of the world’s aluminum and I’d expect European and U.S. sanctions to hit those exports. The pick is longer term bet on the continued rise in demand for aluminum and a continued and growing shortage of supply.
For investors hedging the Ukraine/Russia conflict, here’s my best estimate of what’s next
If you believe as I do that one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goals in igniting the current conflict in Ukraine was to attempt to use Europe’s dependency on Russia natural gas to drive a wedge among NATO members, the most recent developments make a great deal of sense. And we look like we’re on the road to a major escalation of the conflict in the Ukraine.
Please watch my new YouTube video : Steady vs. hot hands
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and second YouTube video “Strong hands vs. hot hands” went up today. Today I’m looking at a few stocks that exemplify what most experienced traders know: some hands are steady, and some are not. So when Nvidia announced this week that it expected to see supply chain issues (despite beating earnings and raising guidance), the stock fell. Similar things happened to chip-making equipment supplier Applied Materials and Albemarle, the lithium maker. I’m taking this opportunity to add some of these stocks into my portfolios. What about you?
Nvidia beats on earnings and revenue after the close–stock trades flat after pre-earnings run
After the close today, Nvidia (NVDA) reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.32 a share (versus analyst projections of $1.22) and revenue of $7.6 billion (versus expectations for $7.42 billion). As of 4:45 the stock has trading down $1.09 in the after-hours market. In my opinion that’s likely a result of a big run up in the stock before earnings. The stock gained 11% from February 11 through the close today, February 16. From January 27, a low in the recent downturn in Nvidia shares, to today’s close the shares are up 21%.