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Jubak’s Picks Performance 1997-2019
Jubak’s Picks
Buy and hold? Not really.
Short-term trading?
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak’s Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active — the holding period is 12 to 18 months — all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 584% as of December 31, 2019. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 335% during the same period.
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Top 50 Stocks Performance 2019
Top 50 Stocks
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak’s Picks Portfolio I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
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Dividend Income Performance 2021
Dividend Income
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why bother?
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Good enough earnings from Coke and Pepsi, adding both to additional portfolios
Neither company crushed Wall Street earnings expectations, but both reported good enough news in a very tough environment. I own PepsiCo in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio, where it was up 220.4% from my initial December 30, 2008 pick as of the close on April 26. I will add the stock to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, April 27, with a target price of $190 a share. The stock pays a 2.47% dividend I own shares of Coca-Cola in my Jubak Picks Portfolio, where it was up 29.8% from my February 19, 2021 pick, and in my Dividend Portfolio, where it was up 41.75% from my May 1, 2020 pick. Tomorrow, April 27, I will add shares of Coca-Cola to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. In addition I will raise the target price on Coca-Cola in my Jubak Picks Portfolio to $78 from the current $56 a share.
Please watch my new YouTube video: “Quick Pick Booking Holdings Update”
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Booking Holdings Update” went up today. Today I’m updating my Quick Pick from about a month ago to say that this last week’s earnings report from Delta (DAL) plus optimistic forecasts and earnings from American Airlines and United Airlines only make me more confident of the growth story for Booking. I think that with travel returns to near pre-Pandemic normal this summer, travel booking sites will see revenue increases in the later quarters of 2022. Plus, these sites don’t have to worry about fuel costs like actual airlines. (And I think”bargain hunting” sites like those owned by Booking Holdings will get an extra boost from rising inflation and from worries about a potential recession. I’ll be adding these shares to my Jubak Picks portfolio with a target price of $2800 a share tomorrow, Friday, April 22.
Buying Booking Holdings in my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, April 22.
In my Quick Pick video Update just posted, I noted that I would be buying shares of travel booking global marketshare leader (or co-leader) Booking Holdings (BKNG) tomorrow, Friday, April 22 in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m setting an initial target price of $2,800 a shar
Another round of higher oil prices headed our way
Today, April 21, reports from a number of different sources are pointing to lower oil production–which will mean higher oil prices. Even from current levels.
Lessons from Netflix for all consumer stocks
Let me take step back to look at the one of the larger economic forces revealed by the Netflix miss. I’d argue that the Nexflix miss should put pricing power and questions of what price increases will hurt demand up near the top of your stock picking check list. Especially since the streaming service’ loss of 200,000 subscribers this quarter and the ported loss of 2 million subscribers next quarter qualifies as just the first shoe to drop.
I’d be surprised if today’s oil price weakness persists
You don’t need to look in obscure, dark corners of the financial market for the reason for today’s big drop in oil prices. The IMF sharply cut its forecast for global growth today and China announced that it would keep its Zero Cover lockdowns in effect. A slower global and Chinese economies will lower global demand for oil. But… After pulling back to establish new positions, Russia has launched an intense bombardment all across Ukraine to soften up the country as Russia troops roll into Ukraine’s eastern region, the home of pro-Russian separatist governments. The new fighting promises to be even more vicious than the old fighting and already Ukraine’s Western supporters are looking for new sanctions to impose on Russia
Delta spikes on earnings and forecast of rebound in summer travel
Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a smaller than expected first quarter loss today and shares rose strongly after the company said a strong rebound in summer traffic would turn results positive in the second quarter. As of noon New York time Delta shares were up 4.51%. The airline lost $1.23 a share, slightly less than the Wall Street consensus of a $1.27 a share loss
Trimming bank stocks ahead of earnings: Selling WFC and KBWB ETF
Just want to make sure that no one missed the sell recommendations in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post on my subscription JubakAM.com site. Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.