Jubak Picks Portfolio Performance 1997-2014
Buy and hold? Not really.
Not by a long shot.
So what is the stock-picking style of The Jubak Picks portfolio?
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I try to go with the market’s momentum when the trend is strong and the risk isn’t too high, and I go against the herd when the bulls have turned piggy and the bears have lost all perspective. What are the results of this moderately active—the holding period is 12 to 18 months—all-stock portfolio since inception in May 1997? A total return of 334% as of December 31, 2012. That compares to a total return on the S&P 500 stock index of 125% during the same period.
Jubak Top 50 Portfolio Performance for 2016
This long-term, buy-and-holdish portfolio was originally based on my 2008 book The Jubak Picks.
Trends that are strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to surpass stock market averages.
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In The Jubak Picks I identified ten trends that were strong enough, global enough, and long-lasting enough to give anyone who invested in them a good chance of beating the stock market averages.
To mark the publication of my new book on volatility, Juggling with Knives, and to bring the existing long-term picks portfolio into line with what I learned in writing that book and my best new ideas on how to invest for the long-term in a period of high volatility, I’m completely overhauling the existing Top 50 Picks portfolio.
You can buy Juggling with Knives at bit.ly/jugglingwithknives
Dividend Income Portfolio Performance for 2016
Every income investor needs a healthy dose of dividend stocks.
Why not just concentrate on bonds or CDs?
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Because all the different income-producing assets available to income investors have characteristics that make them suited to one market and not another. You need all of these types of assets if you’re going to generate maximum income with minimum risk as the market twists and turns.
For example: bonds are great when interest rates are falling. Buy early in that kind of market and you can just sit back and collect that initial high yield as well as the capital gains that are generated as the bonds appreciate in price with each drop in interest rates.
CDs, on the other hand, are a great way to lock in a yield with almost absolute safety when you’d like to avoid the risk of having to reinvest in an uncertain market or when interest rates are crashing.
Dividend stocks have one very special characteristic that sets them apart from bonds and CDs: companies raise dividends over time. Some companies raise them significantly from one quarter or year to the next. That makes a dividend-paying stock one of the best sources of income when interest rates start to rise.
Bonds will get killed in that environment because bond prices will fall so that yields on existing bonds keep pace with rising interest rates.
But because interest rates usually go up during periods when the economy is cooking, there’s a very good chance that the company you own will be seeing rising profits. And that it will raise its dividend payout to share some of that with shareholders.
With a dividend stock you’ve got a chance that the yield you’re collecting will keep up with rising market interest rates.
But wouldn’t ya know it?
Just when dividend investing is getting to be more important—becoming in my opinion the key stock market strategy for the current market environment—it’s also getting to be more difficult to execute with shifting tax rates and special dividends distorting the reported yield on many stocks.
I think there’s really only one real choice—investors have to pull up their socks and work even harder at their dividend investing strategy. That’s why I revamped the format of the Dividend Income portfolio that I’ve been running since October 2009. The changes aren’t to the basic strategy. That’s worked well, I think, and I’ll give you some numbers later on so you can judge for yourself. No, the changes are designed to do two things: First, to let you and me track the performance of the portfolio more comprehensively and more easily compare it to the performance turned in by other strategies, and second, to generate a bigger and more frequent roster of dividend picks so that readers, especially readers who suddenly have a need to put more money to work in a dividend strategy, have more dividend choices to work with.
Why is dividend investing so important in this environment? I’ve laid out the reasons elsewhere but let me recapitulate here. Volatility will create repeated opportunities to capture yields of 5%–the “new normal” and “paranormal” target rate of return–or more as stock prices fall in the latest panic. By using that 5% dividend yield as a target for buys (and sells) dividend investors will avoid the worst of buying high (yields won’t justify the buy) and selling low (yields will argue that this is a time to buy.) And unlike bond payouts, which are fixed by coupon, stock dividends can rise with time, giving investors some protection against inflation.
The challenge in dividend investing during this period is using dividend yield as a guide to buying and selling without becoming totally and exclusively focused on yield. What continues to matter most is total return. A 5% yield can get wiped out very easily by a relatively small drop in share price.
Going forward, I will continue to report on the cash thrown off by the portfolio—since I recognize that many investors are looking for ways to increase their current cash incomes. But I’m also going to report the total return on the portfolio—so you can compare this performance to other alternatives—and I’m going to assume that an investor will reinvest the cash from these dividend stocks back into other dividend stocks. That will give the portfolio—and investors who follow it—the advantage of compounding over time, one of the biggest strengths in any dividend income strategy.
What are some of the numbers on this portfolio? $29,477 in dividends received from October 2009 through December 31, 2013. On the original $100,000 investment in October 2009 that comes to a 29.5% payout on that initial investment over a period of 39 months. That’s a compound annual growth rate of 8.27%.
And since we care about total return, how about capital gains or losses from the portfolio? The total equity price value of the portfolio came to $119,958 on December 31, 2012. That’s a gain of $19,958 over 39 months on that initial $100,000 investment or a compound annual growth rate of 5.76%.
The total return on the portfolio for that period comes to $49,435 or a compound annual growth rate of 13.2%.
How does that compare to the total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index for that 39-month period? In that period $100,000 invested in the S&P 500 would have grown to $141,468 with price appreciation and dividends included.) That’s a total compounded annual rate of return of 11.26%.
That’s an annual 2 percentage point advantage to my Dividend Income portfolio. That’s significant, I’d argue, in the context of a low risk strategy.
Portfolio Related Posts
Johnson Controls, a member of my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio, hasn’t done much of anything for a year now. Over the last 12 months the shares are up just 0.66%. That performance isn’t surprising. The company just about completely remade itself in 2016 by spinning off its automotive interiors business and by merger with Ireland-based Tyco International in what has been called one of the most egregious examples of corporate tax avoidance since Constantine outsourced the Roman Empire to Byzantium. Frankly I don’t think investors have known what to do with the “new” company–and the bad taste left by the 2016 tax inversion ploy and the company’s continued problems in generating cash have given investors very few reasons to put in the homework necessary to figure it out. But I think Johnson Controls deserves a little bit of attention now
Yesterday before the market opened in New York China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) reported September quarter earnings of $1.29 a share (excluding one-time items.) That was 26 cents a share better than Wall Street projections. Revenue climbed 61% to $8.63 billion for the quarter, again ahead of projections (at $7.86 billion.) I think it’s safe to conclude from the report that there is absolutely nothing wrong with the company’s core business in China
Facebook (FB) announced third quarter earnings of $1.59 a share today after the market closed. That was 31 cents a share better than the Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed 47.3% year over year to $10.33 billion, ahead of projections for $9.84 billion. Last quarter Facebook reported earnings of $1.32 per share and an earnings beat of 20 cents a share. Revenue in the second quarter climbed 44.8%.
When eBay (EBAy) and PayPal (PYPL) split up in July 2015 (with eBay shareholders getting one share of eBay and one share of PayPal) I told myself (and readers) that I wanted to keep PayPal in my long term 50 Stocks Portfolio but would one day sell eBay out of that group. Well, today I’m keeping PayPal–the stock is up 73.37% since I added it to the portfolio (after the split) and is ahead 83.84% for 2017 to date (as of October 31). The shares were up another 1.98% today. And tomorrow I’m selling eBay out of this portfolio with a 64.97% gain since I added it to the portfolio back in May 2013. (eBay acquired PayPal in 2002.) I’m keeping PayPal because it’s showing signs of being a winner in the revolution that FinTech is bringing to the financial sector. And I’m selling eBay because, in the long-term, I really don’t want to own a company that has to compete with Amazon (AMZN).
Just the bare facts. And on the bare facts of earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel it’s hard to see the market doing anything but climbing tomorrow.
Today October 25 Visa (V) reported September quarter earnings of 90 cents a share, 5 cents a share above Wall Street projections. Revenue climbed 13.9% year over year to $4.86 billion vs. Wall Street projections of $4.63 billion. Payments volume, on a constant dollar basis, rose 10% year over year. Total processed transactions climbed 13% year over year.
On October 16 Jubak Picks Danaher (DHR) reported third quarter earnings of $1.00 a share, five cents a share above Wall Street expectations. Revenue grew by 9.7% year over year to $4.53 billion, above Wall Street projections of $4.47 billion. The company raised its guidance for the full 2017 year to earnings of $3.96 to $4.00 a share against the consensus estimate of $3.96 a share and above prior guidance of $3.90 to $3.97 a share. On the news the stock has decisively broken above its 50-day moving average
Apple’s supplies of iPhoneX to be extremely limited at November launch, sales getting pushed into 2018?
Best explanation I’ve seen so far of the details of Apple’s (AAPL) problems with the iPhoneX comes from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. That report was summarized on MacRumors.com last night. According to the KGI report, the biggest hurdle has likely been the flexible printed circuit board for the phone’s antenna.