Before this market rout and from the safety of the World Economic Forum in Davos, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio talked about the coming bear market in bonds and likelihood that we were near the end of this cycle of economic boom. Sometime in the next two years, he remarked, we were likely to experience a recession and that would put an end to one of the longest periods of economic growth in the United States. With the experience of the big market rout of January 26 through February 8 behind us–if it indeed is–when the Standard & Poor 500 stock index fell 9.03%, I’d like to make Dalio’s comments a little more explicit and apply them more directly to the stock market.read more
As of yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has climbed 5.8% in the last five trading sessions. That recouped much of the 9.03% drop (not quite an official correction of 10% or more) from January 26 through Februry 8. Which, of course, raises the question of what lies ahead–A rapid climb back through the old high of 2872.87 to new records (a classic V-recovery) or a move back to near the old high, followed by a failure at that level and a deeper correction of, say, 15%?read more
No index here with the headline clout of yesterday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) but the message from three indexes today reinforces the story in yesterday’s CPI data: inflation pressures are increasing. The Empire State Manufacturing prices-paid index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York climbed 12.4 points to 48.6 in February. That’s the highest level since 2012.read more
Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation climbed 0.5% in January, the Labor Department announced today. That was above the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.3% in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a 0.2% increase.read more
In the deal announced today Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) pays Nektar Therapeutics $1 billion upfront, $850 million for stock valued at a price of $102 a share, and a potential $1.78 billlion in milestone payments in exchange for access to NKTR 214, a drug candidate still in trials and that has shown the ability to extend the range of Bristol-Myers Opdivoread more
After the close of New York trading today, Diamondback Energy (FANG) announced fourth quarter earnings of $1.56 a share (excluding one-time items). That beat the Wall Street consensus by 5 cents a share. Revenue climbed 116% year over year to $399 million, above expectations for $366 million. As of today, February 13, I’m raising my target price to $140 a share from the prior $130 a share.