Normally, a report of 8% year over year inflation wouldn’t be considered good news for the financial markets.
But in case you haven’t noticed, these aren’t normal times. Which means a report of 8% year over year inflation in April in the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday is likely to be seen as good news by financial markets that have been pounded in 2022.
A report of 8% inflation isn’t guaranteed by any means but it is “likely” according to economists at Bloomberg. That would make March’s 8.5% year over year CPI inflation the high for the current cycle (or at least the market would see it that way for now absent other news in the coming months.)
In the current very negative atmosphere for stocks and bonds a sense that inflation has peaked–even at 8%–might well be enough to set off a strong bounce for a day or two or three. No one would be convinced that the very real problems in the global economy are over nd down with. China’s economy would still be slow. Global supply chains would still be a mess. Food and energy inflation as a result of the war in Ukraine would still be pushing a third of the world toward hunger. And central banks would still be launched on a cycle of her interest rates.
But with everyone now looking for a market collapse–the pessimists say “soon”; the optimists say “not quite yet”–I would certainly remember the old adage about the market–that seems to work to embarrass everyone. The fact that everyone is so negative is actually a positive sign in the short run.
Assuming that the CPI reports does indeed deliver a number that can be spun as “the inflation peak.”
I’d be very careful here about shorting anything at these crushed price levels before Wednesday’s report.
