Watch out for some nasty revisions in the employment numbers due out on Friday.
The data release will include a revision of numbers stretching back into 2009 that’s likely to show bigger job losses during the recession than previously calculated.
Paul Dales of Capital Economics told the Financial Times on Monday, February 1, that the revisions will show that the U.S. economy lost 9 million jobs during the recession rather than the 7.2 estimated earlier. That’s because, Dales said, earlier versions of the data under weighted job losses at small companies.
If the revisions come in as Dales expects, they’re likely to bolster the position of the more cautious members of the Federal Reserve who would like to see a pickup in employment before the central bank starts to raise interest rates.
For the rest of us, any hike in the job-loss numbers is just likely to confirm our suspicions: That the recession felt worse than the official numbers said it was.
STL,
You’re making me blush!
Seriously though, I don’t claim to have all the answers, or even the right ones. I have made more than my share of mistakes, but enough correct calls to keep me in the game. But I appreciate your faith.
cjxland, please be careful about your language describing Jim Jubak’s investment “advice” — as stated in the disclaimers on this site, Jim is expressing “opinions”, not giving personal investment recommendations (he does not know your portfolio, risk tolerance, investment objectives or time horizon — all of which an investment advisor would need to know before giving personal investment advice). If he were your advisor, he would be assuming fiduciary duty concerning your investment actions and, with that, legal liability.
Jim has proven to be an astute analyst and we all appreciate his detailed, well-reasoned analysis and opinions. However, NO ONE should just take the opinions at face value — we all have to perform our own due dilligence and we are all responsible for the result of the investment actions we take.
EdMcGon…
Your comment about learning how to “walk”, reminded me of my late dad’s advice when I was in a quandary about buying my first home…”You gotta learn how to CRAWL before you walk!” He told me that numerious times as I struggled to get that tiny home fixed up to live in.
cjxland…I’ve been doing what you suggested which is mimicking my buys per Jim’s advice! At any rate, I thrive on the interactions here and respect all comments, suggestions, and/or advice!
Ohhhh, and my intuition (gut feeling) leads me to trust what EdMcGon has to say. I feel that he looks at both sides of a coin before jumping into a fire. Of course, he helped immensely in making this “newbie” feel like a true Jubakster from the start!!
cjxland,
Ok, I see your point. It’s basically letting someone hold your hand through the first steps of learning the market, until you (or in this case STL) learn how to “walk” on your own.
Ed- and STL
I stand by my advice: if you are a novice, and you know doowah, and you seek advice from all these fine folks, you will get 29 [or more] expert opinions on every subject, not all of which can actually be right, since- as Ed points out- no one can call the markets. And then you will really be scratching yer head! [First lesson: that’s WHY there are markets!]
What I’m suggesting is to simplify the problem by simply investing with Jim for now- sure, read the comments, but stick with one theory unti it is dispoved or until you- personally- come up with a better one.
cheers
I own a Prius, and I have to say I’m getting tired of the stuff I keep getting in the mail from Toyota about this recall situation. The first letter, IIRC, stated that it was all due to the accelerator getting stuck under the floormat, ignoring the numerous reports of the problem from people who didn’t even own floormats. The second letter, which I just got last week, claims it’s a combination of the floormat issue and the pedal getting physically stuck in some cases, again ignoring the numerous reports from people whose accelerators were not physically stuck but experienced the out-of-control acceleration anyway. And now, just to put the cherry on top, they’ve just reiterated that although they suspect a software issue is causing problems with the brakes, the accelerator problem is purely a mechanical issue. Oh really? Honestly, I’m starting to get pissed off.
So far, I too think this is a blip for Toyota (although a tremendously expensive blip), simply because at this point it doesn’t seem like malfeasance is involved (a la Bridgestone tires). It appears they just plain and simple can’t find the problem. I would, however, appreciate it if they would just flipping say that instead of trying to blow smoke at everyone.
cjxland,
I disagree, for this reason: There is no one, Jim Jubak included, who knows EXACTLY what the market will do. Even the mighty Warren Buffett makes mistakes.
It is important to get as many views as possible on a stock or investment BEFORE buying, especially when you first get started, like Seaturtlelady is doing. And there is nothing wrong with listening to the commentors here, if they present well-reasoned arguments for or against a specific investment. Over time, she will begin to learn what works and what doesn’t, and what advice works and what doesn’t.
That said, I am NOT putting down Jim. I come here because his assessments are always well-reasoned, even if I don’t always agree with his picks. Although when I do agree with Jim, it’s a beautiful thing (cha-ching!).
Two schools:
Hell yes; this is a pr nightmare, but at the end of the day Toyota has made a great product at a great price for 50 years. This is a blip.
Hell no, this is the tip of the iceberg. TM has a computer glitch in its accelerator system and can’t find it. There has been reports of similar problems for years and TM has denied a problem for years (a denial we now know was reckless at best). The southern california cop who killed his family in a lexus careening at 120 mph was a professional driver; he would not have panicked and he would have been able to “unstick” a stuck accelerator if that was truly the problem.
On balance, I’ll pass. And I drive a toyota (my fourth).
Is now the time to be watching Toyoto for an entry point?
STL- I think you are missing the point here- maybe not seeing the forest on account of all the trees:
There is really no need to ask the commentors on this site for advice-
You are already getting the best advice in the world… from the master- just buy what he buys, sell what he sells, he’ll tell you when- and hide and watch [by which I only mean count yer profits and learn the game by observing]. You don’t have to do anything else at all, till you are ready.
No offense to anyone intended. But he does have the numbers to back him up!! [Thx Jim].
And as long as I’m here- wouldn’t it be refreshing if this were the only site on the net WITHOUT all the petty and cheap and constant 2 bit political sniping?? I don’t see how that makes any of us better investors. No offense to any of you snipers, personally, intended.
Seaturtlelady,
Feel free to ask me anything. I have an answer for any question, although sometimes the answer is “I don’t know”.
EdMcGon…
As always, thanks for your candid response!
Greenflash98…
Nope, I didn’t take what you said the “wrong” way at all. You gave me good advice to follow. In fact, I welcome ALL the advice I can get!! Feel like I’m bringing up the rear since I’m the “newbie” Jubakster in trying to learn as much as I can in a short amount of time!
This has been such a great experience for me to hang out here and absorb everyone’s thoughts and/or perspectives. Now, if I just didn’t have to wait until mid-March to get Jim’s book…
Seaturtlelady,
I sold MRVL because my portfolio was overweighted in tech, and I preferred Apple as a tech play.
I didn’t buy INTC because I just don’t see it’s future growth as worthy of it’s current price. I could very well be wrong. It’s just a gut feeling on my part.
SeaTurtleLady,
Hope you don’t take this the wrong way, but don’t let yourself get aggravated with a short-term slide in any stock you buy. No one can predict the daily/weekly gyration of the market, most of which has nothing to do with the inherent qualities of the stock you just lost a bit on. While we would all like to make our picks and then see them do nothing but rise from there, that’s not the reality of this game. Similarly, don’t get too happy about the upticks either, because they, too, usually don’t last. I think you said it yourself about something else–steady as she goes. Buffett has trained himself to take the emotion out of investing, as have most who are successful here. Not easy, but something to strive for…best of luck.
EdMcGon…
If you don’t mind my asking, why did you sell MRVL??
And, why didn’t you buy INTC??
Sorry Seaturtlelady. I never bought INTC (although there is nothing wrong with it), and I already sold my position in MRVL about a week ago.
As for BRF, I don’t expect to buy it where I got it, but I’d settle for a bit closer to that.
Morning EdMcGon…
I bought a small position of BRF on Monday…just waiting for a transfer of funds to buy some more! I’m already up 1.37%…still a wee bit aggravated with INTC and MRVl. grrrrrr…
I lost my job in Manufacturing in 2008 after 33 years of continuos employment. The job was outsourced to Asia and will not be back. I have exhausted my unemployment benefits and I no longer show up in the statistics.
Jim, I don’t see brf as part of Jubaks picks, didn’t you buy a couple of days ago ?
– Have a great time in FLA (looking forward to your next trip to Las Vegas…
My wife is an independent sales rep in Michigan. She is still working, no one is buying. She and thousands of other people are in the same boat. Working, but effectively unemployed (income = 0) and not counted in the statistics.
On an unrelated note, but pertinent to the “Jubaksters”, BRF has dropped below $45/share (my guess is on the strengthening of the Real). Could this be the buying opportunity Jim suggested in his buy recommendation? Pay attention to this one folks.
I will not be surprised if the revision show more jobless.
Jim,
Let’s not underestimate the government’s ability to massage the revision. Lately they’ve been taking the whole ‘fun with numbers’ thing to new depths.
I guess spinning the truth it beats addressing the problem…
I think we all should proceed, with the presumption that past numbers were too favorable, and future numbers may well be prodded, to present the most positive message possible.