It’s by no means a done deal—nothing is in South Africa these days—but Nedbank, the South African bank majority owned by insurer Old Mutual (OML.L), is HSBC’s (HBC) deal to lose.
HSBC beat out rival Standard Chartered (SCBFF.PK) for the right to hammer out a formal offer to acquire South Africa’s fourth largest bank over the next two months. I think HSBC will pull it off. Old Mutual own 51% of Nedbank and the insurer is a motivated seller because the company is selling assets to pay down debt. HSBC won’t be able to gain 100% of Nedbank’s outstanding shares because South African law reserves a percentage of shares for black investors. But the company should be able to gain the 70% of shares that it has said will let it achieve it strategic goals.
And what are those goals?
First, but not foremost, HSBC wants to gain a foothold in Africa’s largest economy.
Second, but more important, HSBC wants to stake a claim to financing the increasingly important trade between Africa and Asia. Roughly a third of Africa’s exports—mostly minerals and other commodities—head for Asia these days. Ten years ago only 1% of Africa’s exports went to China. Today China is the destination for 10% of the continent’s exports. And with China investing in Africa’s commodities as fast as it can identify deals and funding big infrastructure projects like the proposed Durban to Johannesburg high-speed rail line that Africa-China traffic will continue to grow.
And now that HSBC has defined itself as an Asian bank, it can’t afford not to have a presence in Africa.
The price looks reasonable at an estimated $8 billion. And I think HSBC will manage the sensitive politics of South Africa well enough to ink the deal.
As of August 30 I’m keeping my target price for this Jubak’s Pick at $67 a share by June 2011.
Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any company mentioned in this post in my personal account.
muxy7,
Jim said he sold most of his stocks in these portfolios and bought his new global fund.
Also even if that wasn’t the case he might sell a stock for his own reasons even if the stock is still recommended in one of his theoretical portfolios here on this site, and as he wouldn’t post just to say he is selling stocks in his personal portfolio.
Previously Jim was an owner of this stock. When did he get out? Why did he not mention it?
A good looking lion, indeed! …could even sell some stock, that one!
Ah, but that’s a fine lion!
java12jack,
I must admit, I am starting to like STD. Ideally, I’d want it at $9, but I’m not sure it will drop that far short of a complete market crash, which is possible, although it was that low in June. You can buy it above that, but you will be carrying some downside risk. However, with the dividend, it might be worth riding it out, even if you pay too much.
For TCK, I think I’d look for a price in the $31-32 range. However, if we do get deflation, TCK might take a hit. Be careful with that one.
My neighbor bought his house from HSBC, he had a very hard time will them on the closing. They didn’t show up for closing, accepted the bid then turned it down and then closed.
My experience with my online savings account was not very good. I closed my account and couldn’t get the last bit of money, they sent me a letter saying here’s your check there was no check. The check that did come had a stop payment on it.
hsbc needs to straighten things out
Ed,
Interested on your thoughts of STD and TCK? On a market pullback what would be a good entry point?
Thanks!