It was a short session today, the Friday after Thanksgiving, on Wall Street but that didn’t stop the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite from setting new all-time records. The S&P 500 closed up 0.24%. The NASDAQ Composite finished ahead by 0.92%.
Volume, as you might expect, was relatively light–just 60% of the average daily volume this year.
But that didn’t prevent some really big moves today.
Not in the vaccine-recovery-dependent stocks that have led the market higher in the last few days on positive vaccine announcements. American Airlines (AAL), for example was up just 0.27% and MGM Resorts International (MGM) was ahead only 0.81%..
And not in the big tech momentum stocks that had led the market higher for most of 2020. Apple (AAPL) added only 0.48% today. Microsoft (MSFT) gained 0.64%. Amazon (AMZN) was higher by 0.32%.
No, the big gains came in momentum names that have done nothing or sold lower in the last few sessions.
For example, Twilio (TWLO) gained 4.44%. Veeva Systems (VEEV) added 3.01% on the day. Infineon (IFNNY) picked up 3.93%. SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) moved higher by 4.44%. And Nidec (NJDCY) added 9.67%.
I like all the stocks in this latter group. I own all of them in my online portfolios and in my personal portfolios too.
But today’s moves are truly extraordinary.
And they send a signal that you and I need to watch as this market closes out 2020.
You see many money managers have a performance problem as we head to the end of 2020 that has gone from being an annoyance to being a problem in the last few months.
The S&P 500 is up11% in November as of the November 26 close. Â The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7.64% the last month. NASDAQ Composite has gained 4.77%.
For the year many managers lagged the volatile NASDAQ Composite and the big-tech heavy NASDAQ 100. That was bad enough, although it was a lag that a money manager could explain to investors. But in the last month those money managers have been getting killed even by the wider and theoretically less volatile S&P 500 and Dow. And that’s really, really hard to explain.
Let me give you an example. The Fidelity Contrafund, one of the best of actively managed funds, had, until very recently held its own for 2020. For the year, the fund was up, as of November 26, by 27.8%. That’s within striking distance of the NASDAQ Composite for 2020 at 35.6%.
But the last month and three months have opened a big gap between the fund, up 2.72% in the last 3 month and 1.64% in the last month, and the indexes. (Remember the S&P 500 is up 11% in  November and the Dow is up 7.64%)
The Contrafund has such a great long-term track record (an average annual total return of 16.8% over the last five years) that I doubt many sane investors will pull money from the fund because of a few months lagging the indexes.
But not all money managers have that kind of record or that kind of faithful investor group.
For them, lagging badly behind the big general indexes for the last month and three months is a huge potential problem. And I can’t say I blame these managers for trying to fix the problem by chasing momentum performance that might help them close the gap. (Which doesn’t mean that I want to imitate this move.)
My conclusion after today–just one day, of course, and a low volume day at that–is that we’re seeing a big jump in performance chasing that could drive the momentum stocks up today up further and faster in December.
Keep your eyeballs peeled for more evidence of that trend. And hold onto the stocks in this momentum group that you may own for December and the early part of January before looking to take some profits.
