Back when emerging markets started to break down, I sold my positions in Argentina. Then it looked like the damage might be limited to that country.
Not though it’s clear that the whole sector is under pressure and that investors trying to avoid the next breakdown (after Argentina and Turkey) are looking to sell just about anything in the sector. And especially anything in Brazil.
I think it’s worth clearing the decks here so that if there’s a recovery in the October or so (the recovery that I was looking for when I added these shares in September 2017), I’ll be ready to take advantage of it in whatever stocks look best then rather than being saddled with what stocks looked good a few months back.
So today, I’ll be selling McDonald’s franchisee, Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) out of my Jubak Picks portfolio. The company is the largest McDonald’s franchisee in the world but the bulk of their exposure is to Brazil and Argentina. And that’s not where I want to be now.
I have a 25.62% loss on these shares since I added them to the Jubak Picks portfolio on September 21, 2017.
My long term rule of thumb has been to expect about 2x the volatility out of emerging markets. So, for example, a developed market correction is a 10% drop. A correction in emerging markets would be 20%. Just a rule of thumb, mind you. But helps guide my expectations.
Emerging markets have always been relatively volatile. I suspect the prospect of an extended trade war, strengthening $, specific country debt and political issues will increase volatility/ downward pressure in the short term. See also:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2018/06/08/matthews-asia-country-updates