The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Friday. That was the smallest number monthly new jobs in six months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
And traders tried once again, to get ahead of the data. Concluding that slower job growth, meant the Federal Reserve would be more likely to cut interest rates sooner–in September, say, rather than November or December–bonds rallied and yields fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped 7 basis points to 4.5%. The yield on the 2-yer Treasury, which had been flirting with 5% earlier in the week, fell to 4.82%.
Stocks climbed with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 1.26% and the NASDAQ Composite gaining 1.99%.
Trouble is that these moves were the exact opposite of gains and losses earlier in the week. The market believes the Fed when it says its next interest rate decision will depend on the data. The problem is that the data has been all over the block recently.
For example, on Tuesday, U.S. labor costs rose by the most in a year, sending yields on two-year Treasuries above 5%. Three days later, a Labor Department report showed the smallest increase in wages since 2021, sending yields back down.
Recent numbers show that retail sales are surging but consumer debt and delinquencies are rising and growth in gross domestic product has been slowing. Industrial production has been rising while manufacturing has been falling. Jobless claims are holding steady—-yet hiring has ticked down.
Every trader wants to get ahead of the data and put a winning bet on the Fed’s next move and its timing. With the dat so uncertain, though, that has made the markets very sensitive to any hint on the Fed’s direction. Short-term volatility for stocks and bonds is up strongly. According to Bloomberg, one measure of intraday stock volatility has jumped to the highest level since November.
This is a great environment for losing money on trading short-term volatility.
None of the recent news qualifies as the kind of evidence that the Fed is looking for before deciding to make its first interest rate cut.
Fed chair Jerome Powell, who spoke Wednesday after the central bank held interest rates steady for a sixth straight meeting, noted that wage growth probably needs to “move down incrementally” for policymakers to meet their inflation objective. Friday’s report showed some movement in that direction, but not enough, in my opinion. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.2% from March and 3.9% from a year ago, the slowest pace since June 2021. But that’s still almost 4%.
And one month does not make a trend.
