We’ve moved to a risk-off market–for how long?
It’s a classic risk off market today as of 4 p.m. New York time. All the safe havens are up. The yen is ahead 1.2% to 109.65 to the dollar, breaching the 110 level for the first time since November. Gold is 1.73% higher to $1275.60 an ounce. The 10-year U.S....
The market didn’t react to the Syria raid today, but the real stress lies ahead
The U.S. launched 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase last night in retaliation for President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons on a rebel-held town in Idlib province. And financial markets barely budged on Friday, April 7. The Standard &...
Financial markets take-away from today’s Fed minutes: Shrinking the balance sheet on tap in 2017
Amidst all the talk about inflation and inflation targets, and the strength of the labor market, and the role of stock prices in monetary policy, what the financial markets fastened on in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March minutes, released this...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: Facebook options and new life in volatility
Here’s what I’ve been writing about lately on my two paid sites JugglingWithKnives.com and JubakAM.com. I’ve been watching the long LEAPS options on Facebook (FB) since back in January. On March 30 I finally added the January 18, 2018 calls with a...
Another down day for U.S. stocks–consensus still saying that’s a good thing
U.S. stocks closed slightly lower again today, making this week three for three on the down side. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off by 0.2% at the close and the Dow tripped lower by 0.33%. The Russell 2000 small company index was down 0.64%. But...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: Reading oil prices from the futures market and a (possible) return of volatility and the VIX
Let me share two inside baseball investing posts that I put up today on my paid sites. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that parallels the focus of my book Juggling With Knives on volatility. If you...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...
Light volumes make it hard to find a market trend–but watch volatility and the VIX
On a day that has been dominated by geopolitical news–the Obama administration has imposed sanctions in response to Russian cyberattacks during the November election–light volume in the financial markets today make drawing any conclusion from market moves...
Oil price volatility increases as we get closer to OPEC’s November 30 deadline
Oil prices were all over the chart on Wednesday, November 17, as negative data battled optimistic words. Look out for more days of this war as we get closer to the November 30 meeting of OPEC that is supposed to result (but might not) in an agreement to significantly...
Global rout in bonds continues–new danger spot Japan
The rout in global bonds continued today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points to 2.22% as of 3 p.m. New York time. That’s the highest level since January and comes after a jump of 37 basis points last week. Yields on the 10-year German...
6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
U.S. stocks rally ahead of election on second Clinton e-mail letter from FBI
The hedges have been coming off today as the financial markets react to FBI director James Comey’s second letter on the FBI’s perusal of a trove of email’s on a laptop that was shared by Clinton aide Huma Abedin with her estranged husband (and former...
Get Grandfathered at JugglingWithKnives.com
Please note, this isn’t the same thing as being a grandfather. But have I got a deal for you. Go to my new site JugglingWithKnives.com before November 15 and sign up to receive my nightly emails from that site. Then you’ll have access to the site and...
Another indicator: Will the market reward Netflix blowout earnings tomorrow?
Netflix reported third quarter earnings of 12 cents a share, beating the Wall Street consensus by 7 cents a share. Revenue climbed 31.7% to meet Wall Street expectations. And the company raised guidance for the fourth quarter of earnings of 13 cents a share versus the...
Today’s IBM earnings will provide an indicator of market direction tomorrow
The market reaction tomorrow to IBM’s third quarter earnings, announced after the close today, will tell investors and traders a lot about what this market regards as a disappointment and how vulnerable U.S. stocks are to less than exciting earnings results. IBM...
This “vulnerable” market looks to be shifting to a risk off stance
On the surface and if you look only at the market wide indexes, nothing much happened today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, for example, finished just 0.31% lower–that’s 6.63 points–to 2132.55. But look at which assets and sectors...
A week of oil talk–with volatility and (probably) higher oil prices
Lots of talk with the potential to move oil markets on tap this week. And already today we’re got the first installment of that talk from Russian President Vladimir Putin at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul. (The congress brings together OPEC and non-OPEC...
Good economic news from Census shows tale of two U.S. economies
Released yesterday, the Census Bureau’s annual report painted an extremely positive view of the economy as a whole. So positive, in fact, that I’ve actually got some hope now that the fundamentals of the economy might even justify record stock prices (at...
What me worry?
Am I the only one who finds Friday’s GDP report of 1.2% annualized growth worrying? Especially when combined with a drop in consumer sentiment? What’s bothering me? The deeply disappointing second quarter GDP number was only as good as it was because...
How bad will the effects of Brexit be? Pick your time frame
German investor confidence fell in July on worries over the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Released today the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which looks six months ahead ( in other words into early 2017), fell to -6.8 from...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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