Stocks hold most of last hour’s gains–and that’s important
An extremely volatile day–but the market held most of its gains into the close–and that’s important if you’re trying to figure out whether we’ve seen the last (for a while, at least) of this week’s selling. Let’s take a look...
White House talk of tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods ends “breather day”
Markets started off today as if they were determined to take a breather from a week of worry that the emerging markets crisis was about to spread to developed markets. In morning trading the Standard & Poor’s 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the iShares MSCI...
Domestic Chinese politics put (some) pressure on Beijing to resume tariff talks–bounce to come?
Still lots of earnings announcements this week but we’re done with the real exciting news from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX). This week the top names are companies like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), The Walt Disney Company...
This market’s volatility puzzle–it’s as if investors and traders don’t think risk is climbing in the general market
Facebook (FB) falls almost 20%. Netflix (NFLX) tumbles 14%. Twitter (TWTR) is down 21% on earnings. Intel (INTC) finished today down 9%. And yet the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the price that traders are willing to pay to hedge risk VIX, the so-called...
More evidence today that inflation is creeping higher
No index here with the headline clout of yesterday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) but the message from three indexes today reinforces the story in yesterday’s CPI data: inflation pressures are increasing. The Empire State Manufacturing prices-paid index...
Higher long-term volatility lurks in widening spread of interest rate forecasts
Today Goldman Sachs projected that the yield on the Treasury 10-year note will climb as high as 3.5% in the next six months. In addition, the Wall Street giant told Bloomberg, the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates four times in 2018. The yield on the 10-year...
A constructive day but the short-term key remains CPI inflation on Wednesday
The Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both finished in the green today, up 1.39% and 1.70%, respectively, after having held off a bout of selling around 3:46 p.m. New York time. Volatility also made progress on returning to normal....
Chinese stocks bounce back on better than expected but still tight liquidity
As is so often the case, liquidity was the driver for Chinese stock today, Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.78% to 3,154.13 points by the close of trading Monday, after initially falling 0.45% during the morning. Two indexes with more exposure to...
The financial markets are in shock at Washington’s debt plans
Notice that the signing of a bill early this morning to keep the government open and to fund operations for two years hasn’t resulted in a serious rally in either stocks or bonds. As of 11:30 a.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.18%, or...
On my JubakAM.Com subscription site, I just added an ETF for the bond bear market–and today’s meltdown
The logic is pretty simple–I think the rise in yields on Treasuries and the anticipated rise in interest rates from the Federal Reserve that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 650 points today isn’t over. There’s just too much...
I never like to see this kind of big intraday reversal–but it’s not that serious YET
U.S. stocks came racing out of the gates on strength in overseas markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading at 26,000–283 points higher than the Friday close at one point during the day. Then came the plunge as indexes gave back all their gains and...
I hope you weren’t expecting clarity from today’s market
In my Morning Briefing post published on my JubakAM.com subscription site around noon (and on this site around 8 p.m.)today I said it would be critical to see if the early slight move up in the prices of stocks in technology and other risky sectors held through the...
A mildly positive but inconclusive day so far for U.S. stocks
An absolutely inconclusive day so far. Â Which is actually kind of positive. The upward move in technology shares and other risky sectors isn’t strong enough to qualify as a bounce. But it’s certainly not a continuation of the strong selling on Monday and...
Financials continue to rally in wake of reports of less damage than expected in Florida from Irma
Yesterday forecasts of lower than expected damage from Hurricane Irma were enough to light a fire under shares of insurance companies, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the market as a whole. Yesterday shares of Swiss RE and Munich RE, two re-insurers that...
The bond market gets nervous about the debt ceiling and other DC shenanigans
You wouldn’t know that there was anything to worry about from the U.S. stock market. So what that the President of the United States has threatened to shut down the government unless Congress funds The Wall. So what that the promised tax cuts so near and dear to...
Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe its the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But...
Market sinks; volatility climbs on strong economic news, D.C. chaos
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed down 1.54% today and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.94%. Gold picked up 0.87%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) broke above 15 again, soaring 31.94% on the day. There was just too much for the markets to...
Not a lot of conviction today: Markets refuse to bounce or to fall farther
Each rally today was greeted with selling. Every dip resulted in a recovery. U.S. equity markets refused to go much of anywhere today after yesterday’s big sell off. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, for example, finished the day up 0.13% at...
Market goes from worried to freaked out today
U.S. President Donald Trump threatening North Korea with fire and fury was certainly enough to worry global stock markets yesterday. Taunts from North Korea overnight and a promise from that country to drop four missiles into the waters off Guam sometime around the...
Haven assets in demand after day of heated rhetoric on North Korea and nukes
Not surprisingly haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen are up today. So are volatility measures such as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.) Surprisingly, the rush to safety hasn’t been as strong as you might expect after a day when...
Why the huge intraday swing in stocks? The reason matters
At the end of the day, the move in the Standard & Poor’s 500 wasn’t all that large–just a drop of 0.24% to 2474.92. (Although these days, that’s a big decline for U.S. stocks. You have to go back to the beginning of July to find a bigger...
Yesterday’s tech stock rally evaporates this morning
Yesterday’s rally in technology stocks and the NASDAQ Composite has disappeared this morning. At 12:30 New York time the NASDAQ was off 1.6%; the Technology Sector Select SPDR (XLK) was down 1.72%; and individual technology stocks were also in the red. Amazon...
Tech stocks down again but not a replay of Friday rout
Set off, or certainly encouraged, by a downgrade of Apple (AAPL) to neutral from buy at Mizuho Securities, tech stocks continued Friday’s retreat. But the speed of the drop has been much more measured during the first half of the trading day in New York. The...
Oil markets disappointed as OPEC does the expected
OPEC and allied non-OPEC producers have agreed to extend oil production cuts at current levels for nine more months through March 2018. Oil markets, which had been expecting exactly this result for days now, fell on disappointment that OPEC didn’t go further and...
Buy on the dip reflex intact today
Last night I posted that today would be critical for this market’s buy on the dip reflex. Yesterday’s move up after the Wednesday rout wasn’t convincing, I noted, and a retreat today would have raise doubts that the long-standing buy on the dip...
Is buy on the dip intact? Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and use your 30-days of free access to my $199 paid JubakAM.com site to read my take on tomorrow’s market volatility
So did today’s slight rally put an end to the dangers of a correction? Is buy on the dip still in force? Usually I’d be teasing my post on my paid JubakAM.site here and telling you to subscribe if you want to read all of what I think tomorrow will bring...
Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and use your 30-days of free access to my $199 paid JubakAM.com site to read my take on tomorrow’s market volatility
Usually I’d be teasing my post on my paid JubakAM.site here and telling you to subscribe if you want to read all of what I think tomorrow will bring after today’s extraordinary volatility. The Dow Industrials fell 372 points and the VIX volatility index...
Markets rediscover risk–for a day anyway
This morning it looks like the combination of turmoil in Washington and some weak economic data have led traders and investors to take money out of risk assets and put money into safe havens. As of 11:40 a.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was off...
Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks with 30-days of free access to my $199 paid JubakAM.com site–where the first two closed picks to my new Volatility Portfolio gained 36.9% and 49.1%
I think if you try my paid site, you’ll like it. What’s not to like, after all, about the 36.9% gain in a month on Facebook options or the 49.1% gain, again in a month, on shares of Nektar Therapeutics. Those were the first two closed picks in my new...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!