Higher unemployment could soon be called full employment
You know your team’s in trouble when they start talking about moving the goal posts. At the same time as economists are talking about the possibility that the economy will create net jobs in March, the Federal Reserve is thinking about redefining full employment for...What Bernanke should tell Congress but won't
According to forecasts by the Federal Reserve, U.S. unemployment will stand at a horrendous 9.5% at the end of 2010. That’s just about where unemployment stands today at 9.7%. So I certainly understand why U.S. Senators and Representatives will want to hear from Fed...Never mind: actually unemployment wasn't on the rise last week
Remember last week when everybody was in a dither about an unexpected increase in the number of workers filing an initial claim for unemployment? Suddenly the economic recovery in the United States looked in doubt. Well, never mind. Today’s initial claims number, for...The economic recovery is on track in spite of today's disappointing initial claims number
Take a deep breath, guys. With all the hyperventilating about today’s (February 4) disappointing initial claims for unemployment numbers you’d think that everyone has forgotten that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Unemployment numbers will be one of the last...Were more jobs lost in the recession than we thought?
Watch out for some nasty revisions in the employment numbers due out on Friday. The data release will include a revision of numbers stretching back into 2009 that’s likely to show bigger job losses during the recession than previously calculated. Paul Dales of Capital...So where's the growth supposed to come from?
People who don’t have jobs don’t run up their credit card balances. Not much of a surprise. But in November it added up to a record 14th straight monthly drop in credit card debt. Today, January 8, the Federal Reserve reported that credit-card debt fell by $13.7...Not much good news in today's unemployment numbers
Good news (well, a little) and bad news in the unemployment numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor this morning. Although the number of workers filing initial claims for unemployment climbed in the week ended January 2 to 434,000 from 433,000 in the previous week,...Another jobless "recovery"?
The U.S. government releases its jobs figures tomorrow and Friday, January 7 and 8. Lucky economists aren’t groundhogs or they’d be scaring themselves back into their burrows for well more than six more weeks of unemployment winter. I’d call the mood on jobs and...Nothing surprising in this morning's surprisingly bad unemployment numbers
As you read this morning’s bad news on unemployment, keep repeating: “Unemployment is a lagging indicator; Unemployment is a lagging indicator.” It should keep your blood pressure down , prevent you from climbing out on ledge, and from joining this morning’s knee-jerk...Initial claims number leaves jobs picture murky
I’m glad we cleared that up. Going into this morning’s 8:30 ET release of the numbers for initial claims for unemployment for the week ended on December 4, the big question was whether or not the data would support the big drop in November job losses—to just...Watch tomorrow's initial claims for unemployment number for signs that the economy is strong?/weaker? than expected
Time to torture the data! Wall Street will have the red-hot irons and the Spanish boots out in full force tomorrow morning trying to extract the last bit of information out of the initial claims for unemployment number that will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The hope...What does it say if today's good news on unemployment doesn't lead stocks higher?
Stocks should soar today. If they don’t, investors will need to rethink their explanation for recent market weakness. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November. That was a huge surprise. Wall Street had...Job losses slow but still higher than expected
Another 169,000 jobs lost in November. About the best thing you can say about the report from ADP Employer Services released this morning is that the U.S. economy is shedding jobs at a slower rate. The 169,000 jobs lost in November is the smallest drop since July...The unemployment rate is doing exactly what it's supposed to do before an upturn in hiring
The unemployment rate continues to climb, and at a faster rate than expected. The official unemployment rate hit 10.2% in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s up from 9.8% in September and ahead of the 9.9% rate that economists had expected. At...Job loss is slowing but not very quickly
Initial claims for unemployment–that’s the number of people filing claims for unemployment for the first time because they’ve just lost a job–fell by 33,000 from the previous week to just 521,000, according to data released this morning by the...Nothing but bad news in this morning's unemployment numbers
The only good news in the September unemployment numbers was that the market had sold off 203 points the day before on worries over these figures. So the drop Friday morning hasn’t been very steep so far. But the numbers were bad, no doubt about it. How bad? Let...The economy will start adding jobs again–in April
Unemployment will start to decline and the economy will start to add jobs again in April 2010. At least that’s the result you get if you extrapolate the current rate of decrease in new jobless claims out into the future. The Financial Times did the calculation...Huh? Wall Street figures higher unemployment is good news?
You’d think that last week’s jump in the August unemployment rate to 9.7%–the consensus among economists was for just 9.5%–would have sent stocks tumbling. After all, if more people are out of work, consumers will buy less. And it’s not exactly a vote of...Will Monday's second thoughts on the jobless numbers leak into Tuesday? And beyond?
Remember Friday, August 7? That day the stock market tacked 114 points, a huge gain for a market that was looking tired, onto the Dow Jones Industrial Average on news that jobless rolls, rather than swelling by 328,000 as economists had expected showed an increase of...Jobless numbers tomorrow–and on them hangs the trend in this market
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the July payroll and unemployment numbers tomorrow before the stock market opens. It’s a chance to give some badly needed new life to the “We can see the turn in the economy coming” optimism that has...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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