A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March, the...
U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter
The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.7% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. That’s the slowest pace in three years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for growth of better than 1%. The Atlanta...
Weak economic data ahead of first quarter GDP report tomorrow
Modestly disappointing economic numbers were released today ahead of tomorrow’s report on first quarter GDP. Not that much seems to matter with the market transfixed by wrangling in Washington over a potential government shutdown, a possible Saturday vote in the...
Hello! The real economy comes calling this week
Amidst all the guessing about what Congress and the President will do this week to head off a possible government shutdown when spending authorization ends on April 28–and all the speculation about how financial markets will react–we should remember that...
Market’s faith in the growth story fading
In spite of a vote of confidence from the International Monetary Fund and solid first quarter GDP growth in China, the market’s faith in economic growth strong enough to move U.S. stocks up from current levels is fading. You can see that in negative comments...
Jobs report not too hot, not too cold
So how many lives does this Goldilocks market have, anyway? This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs in March. That was the weakest gain since May 2015 and way under the 180,000 jobs expected by economists...
Will tomorrow’s jobs number be too strong for the markets?
Should be an interesting morning tomorrow. The U.S. government is set to release the jobs report for March at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are looking for the economy to add a net 180,000 jobs. That projection could be low, however,...
Big declines in car sales argue for top in auto cycle
Even big sales incentives weren’t enough to prop up U.S. auto sales in March. Sales trailed estimates with sales at Ford Motor (F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) showing big drops of 7.2% and 4.6%, respectively. General Motors (GM) saw a smaller than...
No sign U.S. economic growth accelerating in today’s income report
Personal income in February rose by 0.4% month over month in February, the Commerce Department reported today. That matched economists’ expectations. But personal spending notched only a small gain of 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. The Personal...
Housing strength and Fed chatter push dollar higher–and economy continues to support stocks
Pending home sales for February climbed 5.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for a 2.4% gain. The jump is the largest since July 2010.Pending home sales had dropped 2.8% in January. Pending home...
Make America Happy Again
The new World Happiness report is out. And it’s enough to make you sad. If you live in the United States. According to the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Ernesto Illy Foundation, the United States slipped in 2016 to rank just 19th among the...
U.S. GDP grows by a lower than expected 1.9% year over year in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy slowed to grow at a 1.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported today. That’s down from the 3.5% growth rate for GDP in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 2.2% growth. For the full...
Very preliminary evidence shows higher interest rates slowing U.S. economy
The data actually make sense when you consider the time lags and what these surveys measure. Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes fell in November, unexpectedly, according to the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Pending home sales declined...
Mixed fallout from higher revision to U.S. GDP growth
The news that U.S. economic growth in the third quarter had been revised upward to 3.5% from an earlier 3.2% has been a mixed blessing for the financial markets. Higher growth has helped stocks resume their post-election rally. But it hasn’t helped the bond...
New home sales tomorrow are early test of Fed’s increase in interest rates
Tomorrow, Friday december 23, we get news on new home sales in November. Coming after some market weakness this week and before the long Christmas holiday (financial markets are closed on Monday, December 26), this report has the power to set the tone for a few days....
Sales growth without profits for the holidays?
Solid growth in retail sales for the November and December holiday shopping season. Retail profits not so much. For November, advance estimates show retail and food services sales climbing 3.7% from November 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For December,...
Last obstacle falls to Fed interest rate increase on December 14–November jobs number almost meets expectations
Good enough for government work. The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department announced today. That was up from a revised net add of 142,000 jobs in October but below the 180,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Official...
U.S. economy shows 3.2% growth in third quarter ahead of Fed meeting on interest rates
The second revision to U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was the charm. The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the the three months that ended in September, according to the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 2.9% growth reported in the initial...
Economy adds 161,000 jobs in October; September revised up to 191,000; Fed on track to December rate increase
The U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the September job total upwards to 191,000. The original September report put the month’s job gains at 156,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting the economy...
3 moves for a vulnerable market
If this market is vulnerable, what should I do? I’ve been asked that question repeatedly since I first called this market vulnerable back in my October 11 post “Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable.” To answer that–the what should I do...
Jobs number comes in light but in an OK kind of way
The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised August report of 167,000 net new jobs. The September number was less than the 172,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in the...
ISM service sector survey knocks growth ball out of park (Go Cubs!)
Now that’s a strong report. This morning the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 57.1 for September. That was well above the August reading at 51.4 and above the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com of 52.8. Economists...
Good economic news from Census shows tale of two U.S. economies
Released yesterday, the Census Bureau’s annual report painted an extremely positive view of the economy as a whole. So positive, in fact, that I’ve actually got some hope now that the fundamentals of the economy might even justify record stock prices (at...
Weak report on U.S. service sector puts another nail in coffin for September interest rate increase by the Fed
All this year the U.S. service sector has been making up for weakness in manufacturing. Not in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index slipped to 51.4 in the August survey. That’s down from 55.5 in July and is the lowest...
Weaker than expected August jobs number lowers odds of September rate increase from Fed
Take a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting off the books. Today, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 151,000 net new jobs in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast the...
Worrying manufacturing news today is anxious set up for tomorrow’s August jobs report
Manufacturing activity in the United States contracted, unexpectedly, in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released today, September 1. The index fell to 49.4 in August from 52.6 in July. That was the biggest drop in the...
How long will consumers dip into savings to keep spending?
Yesterday I wrote >https://jubakpicks.com/what-me-worry/ that the combination of slower GDP growth (1.2%) in the second quarter plus declining consumer sentiment worried me. Continued strong consumer spending–household consumption grew at a 4.2% rate–in...
What me worry?
Am I the only one who finds Friday’s GDP report of 1.2% annualized growth worrying? Especially when combined with a drop in consumer sentiment? What’s bothering me? The deeply disappointing second quarter GDP number was only as good as it was because...
What the Fed’s do nothing Wednesday said about an interest rate increase in September
My family and I move every 20 years or so whether we need to or not, so on Wednesday when the Fed was making its decision to keep interest rates right where they are, I was busy unpacking all the boxes that we’d packed on Tuesday. (I’m sooo looking forward to the day...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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