U.S. service economy keeps roaring ahead in latest ISM survey
The U.S. manufacturing sector may be in deep and continued contraction, but according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Non-manufacturing Index, the U.S. service sector–the bulk of the U.S. economy–hit a four-month high in...
A lot of data for a short holiday week
Trading volumes will be low and investors attentions will be focused elsewhere than the financial markets, but this is a week with a surprising amount of market news. Tomorrow, Tuesday December 31, China announces the official Purchasing Managers Index for...
Surprise! U.S. economy adds 266,000 jobs in November; unemployment drops to 3.5%
The United States added 266,000 jobs in November and the official unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The results were buoyed by the return to jobs of 41,300 General Motors workers after the settlement of that strike. But the November total was still impressively stronger...
August numbers say U.S. consumer is in decent shape; business investment still lags
Consumer spending on goods and services, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, increased by just 0.1% in August from July, the smallest gain in six months, according to the Commerce Department today. Personal income was up 0.4% in August....
Decent job growth in July; bond market prices in 100% chance of another interest rate cut on September 18
The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July. That’s down from the 193,000 jobs added in June (revised down from an initial 224,000) and slightly higher than the 160,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. At 3.7% the headline unemployment rate...
Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer
The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today’s...
A pause before tomorrow’s GDP report–and on worries about global growth
U.S. stocks paused as expected today ahead of tomorrow’s initial report on growth in U.S. GDP for the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting that GDP growth dipped to 1.8% year over year in the quarter, down from 3.1% in the first...
Now it’s the service sector showing weakness
In a report on Monday the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the U.S. manufacturing sector slipped. For June the index moved down to 51.7 from 52.1 in May. That still signals expansion–anything over 50 denotes expansion, anything under 50 signals...
U.S. markets counting on visit from Goldilocks tomorrow
Tomorrow, Friday, June 7, brings the May jobs report. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the economy to add a robust 175,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 3.6% (as 49-year low) and average hourly wages growing at a very positive 3.2%...
Manufacturing sector contracts more than expected in May in ISM survey–but, surprising pundits, market doesn’t fold
Going into Monday, June 3, the consensus on Wall Street was that if the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell more than expected, U.S. stocks would follow in a rout. A lower than expected reading on the index would...Negative economic numbers from both China and United States this morning
I’d give the edge to China in the “Whose news is worse?” sweepstakes this morning. For April China’s retail sales rose 7.2% year over year–good news except that economists were projecting an 8.6% increase and that March showed 8.7% year...
More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes
Put today’s numbers on the economy together with those in Friday’s first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending...
GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That’s substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the...
More signs of slower growth in industrial production, cardboard shipments, truck load volume
This morning an unexpected decline in U.S. industrial production (for March) led the parade of indicators pointing to a slowing economy. Industrial production in March fell 0.1%. This comes after a 0.1% increase in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
Numbers on factory orders and durable goods show economy remains in not-too-strong, not-too-weak Goldilocks track
Business investment remained weak according to this mornings report on durable goods. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft–a measure of business investment–remained weak in February, falling 0.1% for the month. However, shipments of...
Jobs numbers show solid but slow growth in U.S. economy
The U.S. economy added 196,000 net new jobs in March. That’s a huge increase from the 33,000 jobs added in February (revised upward from the original 20,000) and showed that the plunge in the February jobs total was an aberration. Economists surveyed by...
Recessions are built on negative shifts in sentiment so today’s news isn’t good
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 58.9 from 60 in the week ended March 31, according to a report Thursday. That’s an eight-week low. Survey respondents’ sentiment on their personal finances posted the steepest two-week drop since 2015. All three main...
Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let’s remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe,...
Durables orders good for stocks and economy
Orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 0.6% decrease. Ex-transportation new orders, which means excluding volatile aircraft orders (for January remember and therefore...
Shockingly low February jobs report this morning–but what’s the trend?
The U.S. economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 173,000 jobs for the month. In January the economy added 304,000 jobs. The huge swing left economists and Wall Street...
Mostly good news on the U.S. economy even in ISM manufacturing slip today
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 56 on the index. (On this index anything above 50 signals expansion in the sector; below...
Today’s economic numbers from U.S. (good) and China (bad)
The first (advanced) estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter showed the U.S. economy growing at a 2.6% annual rate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 2.3% growth. For all of 2018 the economy grew at a real rate (that is after inflation) of 2.9% in...
Wal-Mart’s earnings report reassures stocks
Remember last week when the Commerce Department released figures showing that U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in December from the previous month, the most since 2009. The drop was so big that she Wall Street analysts argued that the data were in error. Today Was-Mart...
The credit cycle sure looks like it’s headed off a cliff in U.S., China
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Presidents’ Day, credit market news has an opening to move higher on the Investor Worry Bandstand. (The kids give it an 65, as they used to say on American Bandstand. But I think its moving up fast. The American Bandstand...
Trump administration economists double estimates of shutdown costs
Yesterday, President Donald Trump’ economic advisers more than doubled their estimate of the damage to the U.S. economy by the shutdown of parts of the U.S. government affecting some 800,000 federal workers. The Council of Economic Advisers now calculates the...
Stocks rally on huge job gains; acceleration in wage growth puts Fed betwixt and between
The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department reported this morning. The government statisticians also revised November’s report to show the addition of 176,000 jobs instead of the prior report of 155,000. Economists surveyed by...
U.S. stocks take a beating as weak manufacturing index follows on Apple sales warning
Last night’s warning from Apple that sales for the December quarter would be well below the company’s earlier guidance bled into a weaker than expected reading this morning  from the Purchasing Managers Index for the Manufacturing sector. The ISM...
Tomorrow morning’s retail sales report for November: really tough comparisons
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting the 8:30 a.m. New York time report on November retail sales to show month to month growth of 0.2%. That wouldn’t be quite so likely to disappoint the market except that retail sales climbed 0.8% month to month in...
GDP grows at annualized 3.5% in third quarter, but…
Real GDP (that is GDP discounting any gains from inflation) increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 3.3% growth rate. In the second quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Big driver in...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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