Selling TSM out of my long-term 50 Stocks and Millennial portfolios on China fears
I hate to do this. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the premier chip manufacturer in the world and I see the company continuing to grow revenue from the increasing demand for smaller and more powerful chips. And I certainly hate to sell a stock that’s...
Selling Tesla tomorrow out of the Volatility Portfolio on China slowdown and trade war uncertainties.
Even before the Biden administration launched a new U.S./China trade war by imposing restrictions on U.S. exports of advanced chip technology, Tesla (TSLA) was facing a sales slowdown in China. Now, with what I regard as the near certainty that Tesla will be one of...
Selling ASML Holding today in an effort to get ahead of the trade war with China
Today I’m selling ASML Holding (ASML) out of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. My take on Asmel hasn’t changed: this is one of the key chip equipment companies in the drive to produce smaller and denser chips. What has changed in the market and the global...
Even after yesterday’s rip-roaring gains, the S&P 500 is stuck–so what comes next?
Yesterday, May 18, the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed at 2953. We’ve been here before. Several times, in fact. On May 8, the index closed at 2929.80. On April 29, the close was 2939. With the 200-day moving average at 2998.,56, even yesterday’s...
The U.S.-China trade war looks to move beyond words–and again it involves Huawei Technologies
China is ready to put U.S. technology companies such as Apple, (AAPL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Qualcomm (QCOM) on its “unreliable entity list.” That would likely result in investigations and economic restrictions on those U.S. companies, according to the...
Now that the U.S. and China have signed that Part 1 trade deal, let the second guessing begin
The United States and China signed a Part 1 trade deal today that contained little in the way of positive surprises and an expected lack of detail. As analysts and economists struggled to fill in the blanks, much of the deeper dive wound up stressing the negatives in...
China almost confirms January 15 deal signing
It’s not exactly a confirmation of President Donald Trump’s announcement that the Part 1 trade deal would be signed between the United States and China at the White House on January 15. But China has scheduled a high-level trade delegation for travel to...
More stimulus on the way in China
It looks like looser monetary policy is on the way in China for 2020. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Monday the government will study further cutting bank reserve requirements in 2020. It’s a good bet that the Premier would have raised the possible policy...
Tariff news from China today should be enough to feed rally in holiday markets
We’ve got two short weeks coming up–since the New York markets are closed this week for Christmas and next week for New Year’s–when trading volumes shrink and it doesn’t take much in the way of news to move stocks up or down. I think we...
IMF raises China growth forecast on announcement of Part 1 U.S.-China trade deal
The new head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has told China’s Caixin Global news service, that she expects the Part 1 agreement to boost China’s GDP growth to 6% in 2020. That would be an increase from the IMF’s previous...
The markets say “Happy Holidays!”
This morning it doesn’t matter that the Part 1 U.S.-China trade agreement isn’t signed and that we don’t have more than the bare, vague outlines of the deal. This morning it doesn’t matter that the smashing Conservative Party victory in the...
Market decides it can’t figure out the news on the U.S.-China trade agreement
What if they announced a Part 1 agreement in the U.S.-China trade war but nobody could figure out what if meant if anything? Stocks would go nowhere. The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained all of 0.1% today and the Dow Jone Industrial Average matched that big...
Do you believe Trump when he says a big China deal is near?
Today, Thursday December 12, just five minutes after stocks opened for trading in New York, President Donald Trump, tweeted that the U.S. and China are very close to signing a “big” trade deal. “They want it, and so do we!” he tweeted. Of course, last week President...
Democrats sign onto revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement with vote likely next week
Washington, D.C. is the home of the surreal these days but the timing of the announcement by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still raised eyebrows. Just minutes after the House committees investigating President Donald Trump voted two articles of impeachment,...
China exports drop again in November
China’s total exports dropped 1.1% year over year in November, the country’s customs administration said on Sunday. Total exports to the United States fell 23% year over year. That was the worst result for exports to the United States since February and a...
China bond defaults head for another record year
With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That’s close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant...
“News” on U.S.-China trade talks takes away, “news” on talks gives back
A day after “news” on the lack of progress of U.S.-China trade talks led to a decline in stocks, “news” of progress in the talks has led to a modest rally. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.63% today and the Dow Jones Industrial...
Trump says, No hurry to strike a trade deal with China in 2020, and markets tumble
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that...
Where’d that come from? Trump reinstates tariffs on Brazilian and Argentine steel and aluminum
President Donald Trump has reinstated tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Argentina and Brazil, leaving global financial markets wondering what that means. At best, the move is based on mis-understanding by the White House of how exchange rates work. The...
What about the Hong Kong vote? Market’s focus on just part of China news sends U.S. stocks to all-time highs
Today both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index hit all time highs. As of 3:40 p.m. New York time on Monday, November 25, the S&P 500 was up 0.67% and the NASDAQn Composite had gained 1.26%. There are two main drivers for the market...
China’s Xi Jinping demonstrates why ending the U.S.-China trade war will be so tough
In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues...
Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
Senate passes Hong Kong support bill, House to take it up today scrambling China trade talks
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy...
White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures
The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera “As the Deal Turns.” starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say...
Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.
The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as...
Failure to set Trump-Xi meeting place and date stalls market
It now looks likely that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign that Part 1 trade deal until December. The two sides still haven’t set a date or a place. The Chinese have ruled out the first two U.S. suggestions of Iowa and...
Market soars on “news” of U.S.-China trade war truce
We’ve been here before. We’ve had other days and other rallies on news, rumors, speculation that the U.S. and China would reach some kind of deal that amounts to a truce in the two countries’ trade war. We been disappointed in that story before when...
It’s a ping pong market over U.S.-China trade talks
Overnight financial markets tumbled on fears that U.S.-China talks to end their trade war were looking at failure. Today stocks are up again as hopes for a so-called “mini-deal” have advanced as China signaled that it might be open to such a limited deal,...
Not surprisingly U.S.-China trade war rhetoric heats up ahead of renewal of talks
Today the Trump administration put eight of China’s technology giants on a blacklist over alleged human rights violations against Muslim minorities. And China signaled that it would retaliate over the blacklist. Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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