Federal Reserve holds rates steady as expected, so why did 10-year yields fall 18 basis points?
Certainly, it wasn’t any surprise that at today’s meeting the Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. Going into the meeting the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of the Fed standing pat on rates at close to 100%. So why then...
Thursday GDP report expected to show a too “hot” economy
The expected strong GDP growth report for the third quarter to be released on Thursday will send the bond market wild again. The U. S. economy, economists project, grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in the third quarter. The actual figures from the Bureau of...
Will we see a market trend emerge this week from Friday’s big volatility day?
I’m hoping for some clarity this week on the market trend after Friday’s wild day. Friday’s intraday moves summed up the uncertainty about the direction of this market. After the huge surprise on the September jobs number, stocks fell immediately out...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Are We Looking at a Supply Crisis for Treasuries?
Today I posted my three-hundred-and-sixth YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Are We Looking at a Supply Crisis for Treasuries? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for...
Treasury yields jump as prices fall–What me worry?
Today at 2:30 p.m. New York time the yield on a 10-year Treasury was up 10 basis points to 3.55%. Yesterday the yield had dropped to 3.50%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, very sensitive to sentiment on Fed interest rate policy, crossed back above 4% to 4.15%....
Higher and longer creeps further into Wall Street thinking
Stocks didn’t move much today after the Consumer Price Index for January showed enough inflation strength to bring Federal Reserve officials out in force to talk about a potential need to raise interest rates above current financial market expectations. But...
Rising bond yields and higher odds of bigger hikes from the Fed at December meeting cap stocks
The two-day bounce in U.S. stocks stalled today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 0.67% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.40%. Why? Increased sentiment that the Federal Reserve will raise its target short-term interest rate by a hefty 75 basis points...
CPI headline inflation falls more than expected; core inflation remains steady
The annual rate of inflation as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped in July to 8.5%. That was down from June’s annual rate of 9.1%. Economists had expected the inflation rate to drop to 8.7% However, the news wasn’t as positive on...
Treasury yields toy with 3% ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project the Federal Reserve will hike its benchmark short-term interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday in an effort to damp inflation. And bond traders have just decided that the U.S.central bank will raise rates by 75 basis...
Could the Federal Reserve have a surprise for financial markets at its March 16 meeting?
I don’t think there’s a significant chance that the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates at its March 16 meeting. Inflation is just too potent and the risk to the U.S. central bank (and economy) just too great of encouraging a perception that...
10-year Treasury yields pop today
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 11 basis points as of 1:30 p.m. New York time today, Monday, January 3, to 1.62%. That’s the first time the yield has been above 1.60% since the emergence of the Omicron Variant in November. The yield on the 30-year...
For one day at least the central banks are back in charge of stock and bond markets
Stocks rallied today and bond prices moved higher (sending bond yields lower) on news that China People’s Bank and the European Central Bank would both pursue monetary moves to bolster growth. The People’s bank reduced the amount of cash that banks have to...
How about this for an explanation for the weakness in stocks over the past few days: The computers are messing with us
I’ve read all the headlines explaining today’s drop in stocks, and yesterday’s and the day before. The chaos at OPEC and in oil prices. Fears that the economic recovery is slowing. Thoughts that inflation isn’t a worry and that instead we...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
OPEC+ is in crisis again–but since no one knows quite what the result is likely to be, we’ve had big swings in sentiment and prices in the oil market (and in banks, other commodities, and the inflation/deflation play) today
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its affiliated oil producers (OPEC+) abandoned their Monday meeting after days of tense talks failed to result in an agreement on a tentative deal to increase production, and even over how to measure production....
Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, stocks tread water
As of the close on Monday, June 4, the major stock indexes were treading water waiting to here what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might say after the Wednesday meeting of its interest-rate-setting body, the Open Market Committee. (No one really expects the Fed to...
Trifecta for stocks today–yield on the 10-year Treasury drops to 1.58%, another 6 basis points lower
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 6 basis coins to 1.58% today, April 15. The drop brings yields back to where they were in early March. More importantly for the current rally that continues to take stocks up to record highs after day, the drop in yields...
Consumer price inflation rises more than expected but markets go “So What?”
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in March from February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Year over year consumer prices are 2.6% higher than they were in March 2020. Economists had projected that the headline CPI would climb 0.5% in March from...
Bond traders speculate that the bond “lull” won’t last long–and that yields will spike again
Today April 6 the yield on the 10-year Treasury is down again–to 1.65%, a drop of 5 basis points. After looking like it was on a short path to breaking 1.90% and threatening 2.00%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has been stuck in a range of 1.60% to 1.70%....
Apparently everybody decided today that tomorrow’s March jobs report will show accelerating economic growth
With the financial markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, traders and investors jumped in to buy today ahead of what is expected to be a jobs report tomorrow morning showing unemployment dropping to 6.0% (by the official measure) from 6.2% in February. The Standard...
Rotation turns to general selling
At 11:07 a.m. today the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.80%. At the close it was down 0.55%. Same picture for the small cap Russell 2000 index. Up 1.65% at 10:54 a.m. New York time. Down 2.26% at the close. What looked like one of the rotation markets...
This week’s Treasury auctions start off smoothly–what does it mean if yields and stocks are down?
This weeks long list of Treasury auctions started off with a very good sale of $60 billion in two-year notes today. Today’s sale came with a yield of 0.152%–yep that’s where interest rates are right now–on the two year note. That matched the...
Today do stocks believe Fed’s Powell on inflation or are we seeing signs of worry about economic growth amid reports of rising coronavirus infection rates?
This morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave reassuring inflation testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Prices would rise this year as Americans are able to go out and spend post-pandemic, but while “We do expect that inflation will move up...
Treasury market is waiting for heavy week of bond auctions that gets up to speed tomorrow
The yield on the 10-year Treasury didn’t move much today, Monday, March 22, with the yield dropping 3 basis points to 1.69%. Treasury volatility could pick up big time later this week as the government auctions off Treasuries across a range of maturities. The...
On second thought, financial markets decide they really didn’t like yesterday’s news from the Federal Reserve
After not moving very much yesterday on the actual news from the Federal Reserve-the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 0.29% and the NASDSQ Composite closed higher by 0.40%, today, March 18, markets decided they really didn’t like the Fed’s...
The Fed stands pat but I see interest rate increase “slippage”
At today’s (March 17) meeting of its Open Market Committee the Federal Reserve held its target interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and continued its commitment to buying $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets, as expected. But the central...
Can the Fed win on Wednesday against market sentiment?
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve will update its projections for GDP growth, inflation, and the timing of any interest rate increase. In December, Fed officials, on the famous (or infamous) dot plot indicated that that central bank officials expected to hold benchmark...
Sorry, the volatility isn’t over because the climb in Treasury yields isn’t over
In the last few days the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has tumbled from 1.6% on Monday, March 8, to 1.54% on Tuesday to 1.52% today. That’s brought a breather selling that had, by Monday, pushed the NASDAQ Composite index into a correction of around 11%...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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