How much higher will a surge in new Treasury supply push bond yields? How about 2.9% on 10-year Treasuries by the end of 2018?
Another date to put on your investing calendar: January 31. That’s when the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to announced how it plans to finance the government’s huge revenue shortfall over the next three months. The betting on Wall Street is that the...
Two-year Treasury yield back to 2%, rate not seen since global financial crisis
Some mornings I have to dig for a lead new story. Other days I’ve got candidates crawling out of the woodwork like roaches in a dirty kitchen when the lights are off. Today I’ve got lots and lots of choices. I’m gong to begin with the bond market...
Are bond yields finally climbing (and bond prices falling) in a belated response to a global shift in central bank policies?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points today to 2.55%. That’s the highest yield since March. That prompted bond guru Bill Gross to declare that we have entered a confirmed bear market in bonds with the upward trend lines for bond prices of...
Good luck on getting that done: Debt ceiling truce looks to be over (if it ever really existed)
Back on August 2–you know, a week ago–it looked like, maybe, raising the debt ceiling wouldn’t be impossible after all. Sure time was short, very short. There were only 12 working days when both houses of Congress were in session before Treasury...
Yellen doesn’t say much but bond market likes what it thinks it heard
It’s not much to hang a rally on, but the Treasury and stock markets moved up after Fed chair Janet Yellen told the House Financial Services Committee today that “the federal funds rate may not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy...
June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event
The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 14. And it’s a strong consensus, to put it mildly with the CME Fed Watch tool calculating that the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 95.8% chance of an interest rate...
Fed minutes from May point to June interest rate increase
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 3 meeting, released today, point to another interest rate increase, the second for 2017, at the central bank’s June 14 meeting. According to the minutes, “most participants judged that if economic...
Global rout in bonds continues–new danger spot Japan
The rout in global bonds continued today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points to 2.22% as of 3 p.m. New York time. That’s the highest level since January and comes after a jump of 37 basis points last week. Yields on the 10-year German...
Global bond markets decide Trump means more government spending, a big tax cut, bigger deficits, and higher inflation–and increased odds that the Fed will raise interest rates faster than expected just last week
Global bond markets fell to the tune of a more than $1 trillion loss this week after Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election. The market value of the Bank of America’s Global Broad Market Index, which tracks 24,000 bonds around the world, fell...Money is moving out of U.S.Treasuries in anticipation of higher interest rates
The bond market is putting distance between European and U.S. government bonds. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury have climbed twice as fast as yields on similar German government bonds since the start of December, according to Bloomberg. The bonds had traded in sync...Bonds killed stocks in the last 10 years–but how about the next 10?
Okay, we get it. This was “The Lost Decade” for stock investors. Yes, since January 2000 the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index is down, as of December 10, a painful 11%. We know this. We feel it in our portfolios. But what should we do about it? I suspect that the...Interest rates are rising even before the Federal Reserve moves
The march to higher U.S. interest rates is on. Oh, the Federal Reserve won’t increase short-term rates, the only ones it directly controls, for an “extended period” yet. I still think we’re looking at mid- to late-2010 before the Fed moves. Ben Bernanke and Company...The next bubble? Here's a logical and surprising place to look
Everyone is warning about bubbles. These warnings have all been unconvincing to me because they imagine that the next bubble will look like the last one. Until today. Gillian Tett in the November 23 Financial Times has come up with the first description of a bubble...Inflation or deflation danger ahead? The markets say, Yes, but not which
Call it the great inflation vs. deflation battle. On the one side, the U.S. TIPS market. In the last few months demand for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities from investors worried about a resurgence of inflation has reduced supplies of the bonds at Wall Street...The U.S. Treasury is getting ready for the day the Fed raises interest rates
Oh, those sneaky little dogs at the U.S. Treasury. Did they really think they could start getting ready for higher interest rates without anyone noticing? You’ll find it in the details of the Treasury’s upcoming auction of $81 billion in new and rolled-over U.S. debt....Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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