U.S. trade deficit climbs in July, deficit with China hits a record
Today, Wednesday September 5, the Department of Commerce reported that the U.S. trade deficit climbed to $50.1 million in July. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a deficit of $50.2 billion.) That was up from $45.7 billion in June and the largest increase...
White House lines up another $200 billion in China tariffs for next week
Just in case you were worried that the days after the Labor Day market holiday might be boring, well, worry no more. Sources in the White House are saying that President Donald Trump plans to move on tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports quickly...
White House announces trade deal with Mexico to replace NAFTA
If you’re looking for a reason for U.S. stocks to keep climbing from current highs, this morning’s event at the White House is a big deal. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Mexico have reached a bilateral trade agreement that would replace...
Another day, another retaliatory tariff
Today the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced 25% tariffs on an additional $16 billion in U.S. exports. The tariffs will go into effect on August 23 and target cars, crude oil, medical instruments, natural gas, and coal along with hundreds of other items.. The tariffs...
Domestic Chinese politics put (some) pressure on Beijing to resume tariff talks–bounce to come?
Still lots of earnings announcements this week but we’re done with the real exciting news from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX). This week the top names are companies like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), The Walt Disney Company...
Negotiating ploy or serious plan: Trump administration signals go ahead with tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods
On Wednesday President Donald Trump ordered the administration’s trade office to consider imposing a 25% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods imported into the United States. The previous tariff proposal from the White House would have imposed a 10% tariff....
China slows a “wee bit”–but that’s too much for an already nervous market
Growth in China’s economy has slipped to the lowest rate since 2016. Which isn’t huge negative news except that Chinese financial markets are already nervous enough to have pushed Chinese stocks into a bear market. In the second quarter of 2018 annual...
Trade war? What trade war? We’re back to the earnings rally today
U.S. stocks closed up on the fifth day out of the last six on a belief that Chinese rhetoric signaled a withdrawal from an immediate confrontation with the United States over trade. The shift wasn’t huge. Chinese officials continued to stress that the government...
Selling Cheniere Energy out of my Jubak Picks portfolio on China trade war
Back when President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping were best buds they announced a deal in principle that would expand Chinese purchases of liquified natural gas from the United States in general and Cheniere Energy (LNG) in particular. I think we can assume...
Trump administration tees up next tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
The Trump administration has released a new list of $200 billion in Chinese goods that would be subject to higher tariffs as promised in retaliation for Chinese tariffs in retaliation for earlier U.S. tariffs. The new tariffs won’t go into effect until the end...
U.S. threatens huge escalation in tariff war with China
At 12:01 a.m. last night higher U.S. tariffs went into effect on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. exports such as autos and soybeans. The Trump administration already has tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese...
Anticipation: The next stage of the U.S.-China trade war starts at 12:01 a.m. tonight
he office of the U.S. Trade Representative has confirmed that tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time tonight. This is on top of tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels that President Donald...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let’s take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why...
Today the markets decide that this “trade stuff” isn’t just a negotiating ploy
Last week the market consensus was that all the moves to raise U.S. tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and everyone else in the world–were just parts of a negotiating strategy by President Donald Trump. Certainly we weren’t on the...
So much for that U.S-China trade truce
The Trump administration has announced higher tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese export and promised additional restrictions on Chinese investments. China immediately promised to impose tariffs with “equal scale, equal intensity” on U.S. exports. The...
Time to further lighten up on emerging markets: Selling Arcos Dorados out of Jubak Picks
Back when emerging markets started to break down, I sold my positions in Argentina. Then it looked like the damage might be limited to that country. Not though it’s clear that the whole sector is under pressure and that investors trying to avoid the next...
Emerging markets “emerging” as focus of worry over trade, strong dollar, credit crunch
If you can’t tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a...
Today the market is cutting risk ahead of possible G7 turmoil
Yesterday the story was that the market rallied on belief/hope that the leaders of the Group of 7 economies due to meet on Friday and Saturday of this week would not allow trade tensions to escalate into a full born trade war. Today it looks like investors and traders...
Trade deficit falls for April–not enough to take the heat out of increasingly hot tariff wars
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in April. The deficit fell to $46.2 billion. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected $48.8 billion. The March deficit was revised to $47.2 billion from an earlier report of $49 billion. The trade deficit with...
Today markets don’t care about trade or tariffs–but what about if the G7 meeting explodes this Friday?
The Group of 7–Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States–is scheduled to meet on Friday, June 8, and Saturday June 9 to discuss, in theory, global economic growth. In reality, the group will discuss trade, U.S....
Temporary exemptions done; Trump administration imposes steel and aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada, and Mexico
Just hours before temporary exemptions on steel and aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico were due to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, the Trump administration has imposed the 25% and 10% tariffs on those imports originally announced in March....
So much for the China tariff truce
Just a week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin declared a “truce” in President Donald Trump’s tariff war with China, today the White House has announced that it plans to put a 25% tariff on $50 billion in Chinese exports to the United...
Stocks up on China trade “truce”–but markets aren’t sure the truce will last or turn into an actual deal
Remarks by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House economics advisor Larry Kudlow over the weekend have the market feeling that the United States and China may avert a full on trade war. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was ahead 0.65% as of...
Financial markets have a case of “trade jitters” today
It’s actually amazing to me that U.S. stock markets weren’t down more today given all the uncertainty regarding trade relations between United States and China, between the United States and its NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico, and between the United...
Was today’s market rally on hopes of avoiding a China/U.S. trade war justified? Here’s the state of what we know
Global financial markets rallied today on a speech by China’s President Xi Jinping at a regional economic meeting that seemed to pull China and the United States back from the cliff and a potential global trade war. Xi promised to open up China’s economy,...
No fade today after market takes off on positive China “feeling”
The market didn’t reverse or fade today. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index hit 2656 by 10:30 and then, despite a dip that took 20 points off the index around 12:30 and a lot of up and downs that ultimately went nowhere, managed to close at 2656...
President Trump ends that tariff calm
Just as financial markets were starting to believe that all the bluster about imposing new provocative tariffs on Chinese imports might indeed be just a negotiating ploy as administration officials loudly proclaimed over the last to days, last night President Donald...
Back to normal today? And a reminder of what normal is
With all available officials on deck today in Beijing and Washington to talk down fears of a trade war and to talk up prospects for trade talks, the U.S. financial markets have returned to “normal.” And what is “normal” right now? A 0.47% gain...
Stocks rally as markets decide trade talks will head off trade war
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index finished up 1.16% today, closing at 2644.69, as traders and investors decided that the tariff measures targeting China that the Trump administration announced last night and the retaliatory measures announced by China...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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