Sell W.R. Berkley (WRB)
It’s like some insurance industry version of “Night of the Living Dead.” Zombies keep eating insurance premium increases. In this case it’s not hordes of zombies that are the menace, but one great big one, American International Group (AIG). The crippled insurer,...Nervous? Afraid to stay in but scared to get out? Join the club (and read my three strategies for coping)
Feeling twitchy? Your portfolio is probably full of stocks trading at 52-week highs. And I’ll bet you’ve thought about selling. And you would do that–except that the stock market keeps going up (well except for the last couple of days), cash pays close to...After this rally I'm still waiting for signs that the economy is in a sustained recovery
Cash flows and cheap money are enough to keep the current rally going into 2010, I believe. Comparisons with really, really weak quarters in the first half of 2009 for global economies in general and for company earning in particular favor a continuation of the upward...My guide to how to worry: Know what to worry about and when if you don't want to get spooked out of a rally–or get killed in a correction
(Originally posted on October 14 but several readers have asked me to repost.) What me worry? On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 10,000 for the first time in a year and when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closes within kissing...If Germany can't kick the stimulus addiction, what hope is there for the U.S.?
We all know that for the long-term health of the global economy and financial system national stimulus packages have to end and governments need to begin paying down the debt that they’ve run up during this crisis. And we all doubt that governments will do any such...Top 10? The ten states facing the biggest budget holes
California tops the list of the 10 states in the deepest financial hole. But not by much. Arizona is a close second. (For more on the state and local budget crisis, higher taxes, and the effect on the economic recovery see my post...Is the New Frugality just hype?
Jimmy Choo—well, his iconic Sex-in-the-City shoes anyway—is now on the war-torn economic frontline. So is Stella McCartney. Anna Sui. And, of course, McDonald’s. The battle is over the New Frugality, the current marketing hot button as the United States gradually...China's economy shifts into a higher gear
Good news, bad news from China. Good news first: China’s economy continues to roar ahead. Retail sales climbed at an annual rate of 16.2%. Exports slowed their slide and the trade surplus almost doubled to $24 billion in September. GDP growth looks well on its way to...If you or your business think it's harder to get a loan, you're right. Still.
When will banks start lending again? Wasn’t in October. Doesn’t look like November. Maybe 2010? That would be a relief for any investor counting on 3% or better growth from the U.S. economy next year. The economy can’t start cooking if banks aren’t lending. The...Will rising state taxes sink the recovery in 2010?
The taxman cometh. That’s not only going to be individually painful in 2010 but the collective hit to consumers could be enough to stall the economic recovery. 2010, though is the short-term. The International Monetary Fund, in a burst of pre-holiday cheer, warned on...So far–so far–this is a normal correction. Watch the GDP number on Thursday
I know this is painful. Stocks, mine in the JubakPicks.com portfolios and in my own portfolios, are down. And it’s starting to feel serious. Stocks have dropped for four trading sessions in a row and for six of the last seven. Since the decline began, small cap...Bad day at the bond auction drives interest rates higher; a sign of things to come?
What if they gave a Treasury bond auction and nobody came? “Nobody” is highly unlikely but lower demand isn’t. That’s what happened at Thursday’s auction for $12 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds. With demand lighter than expected yields...How much is that house? At least 10% below the asking price
When sales of existing homes fell in August–for the first time since March–home sellers jumped into action, slashing the asking price on their properties. The average discount from asking price to sale price was 10% as of October 1, according to Trulia, a...Job loss is slowing but not very quickly
Initial claims for unemployment–that’s the number of people filing claims for unemployment for the first time because they’ve just lost a job–fell by 33,000 from the previous week to just 521,000, according to data released this morning by the...Earnings above low expectations? Probably. Revenue growth? Unlikely. Will that be enough for a rally?
Last June when this rally looked likely to falter, earnings bailed it out. Not that earnings were so great. They were just better than expected. Analysts had reduced their predictions by so much, in fact, that some companies turned in quarters that were 20, 30, or...Bad news for commodities: China's buying spree is slowing
The Baltic Dry Index. If you invest in commodities or commodity stocks, this is the best indicator of short-term trends in the market for commodities such as iron ore,grain, and coal that are carried in bulk by ships. And the news hasn’t been good recently. The...The Fed decided to go slow on removing housing stimulus–and that's a good thing
I heard what I was hoping to hear in yesterday’s statement from the Federal Reserve’ s Open Market Committee: the U.S. central bank isn’t going to cut back its support for the U.S. mortgage market ahead of schedule or abruptly. And that will keep...Read the fine print on predictions that Asia will lead the world's economies in 2010: There's a big "if"
On Tuesday September 22 the Asian Development Bank said that the economies of developing Asia–that’s Asia excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand–would grow by 3.9% in 2009 and by 6.4% in 2010. That would be enough to lead the global economy out...The recovery isn't yet a sure thing
In my 11:45 post today, “Huh? Wall Street thinks higher unemployment is good news?” I said that I was still not convinced that the economic recession was truly over. The recovery that we’ve seen signs of in the last few months could simply be inventory restocking....Is the speed of China's economic growth a fiction?
Timing is everything. Any first year accounting student knows that the easiest way—in the short term–to make a company’s revenues and earnings look good is to change when a company recognizes a sale or an expense. Recognize a sale as soon as the sales person...Will Monday's second thoughts on the jobless numbers leak into Tuesday? And beyond?
Remember Friday, August 7? That day the stock market tacked 114 points, a huge gain for a market that was looking tired, onto the Dow Jones Industrial Average on news that jobless rolls, rather than swelling by 328,000 as economists had expected showed an increase of...Payroll losses down–that's good. But consumer credit falls–that's bad–and so does the Baltic Dry index–that's bad too. The economic picture is clearly mixed
On Friday before the U.S. financial markets opened the Labor Department reported that only a net 247,000 workers lost their jobs in June. That was a big decrease from the drop of 443,000 in June. And way better than the 325,000 decline that economists had been...Is the global current stock rally counting on more spending than the U.S.consumer will deliver?
We know that the U.S. consumer isn’t spending. Consumer spending, known to the government as “personal consumption expenditure,” fell at an annualized rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. That’s a bigger decline than government figures showed for the economy as a...GDP numbers show the recession crawling to an end but followed by a very slow and weak recovery
The government’s reports on quarterly GDP (gross domestic product) are the most detailed picture investors get of the state of the economy. The initial report for the second quarter shows an economy that’s still contracting but at a much slower pace than...Testing the June highs–again
Looks like the stock market is thinking about taking a rest. As I noted way back on July 15 in the first column I wrote for this blog, “Why rallies fail,” I don’t think any rest is going to be a long one–there’s too much money on the...The long-range problem
Green shoots won’t fix the long-term problems with our economy. Yes, the economy is getting less worse, less quickly. And yes, there are signs that the economy is starting to stabilize. And, yes, if you’re really optimistic you can see a day in 2010 (or 2011) when...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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