Market worries that a smaller-than-expected drop in new claims for unemployment portends future downturn in economy
Initial jobless claims in regular state programs totaled a seasonally adjusted 1.3 million in the week ended July 11, down just 10,000 from the prior week, the Labor Department reported this morning. That’s the smallest drop in the new claims since March and...
Everything was rosy until the last hour
At the high point during the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 2.2%. It closed with a gain of just 0.1% for the day. The trend wasn’t limited to U.S. stocks. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was up 1.26% at noon New York time but closed off...
Another day, another market Put: this time it’s remdesivir
et’s count the Puts that are keeping any Bad News Bear from biting this market. Of course, first and foremost there’s the Federal Reserve Put (or Powell Put for lovers of alliteration). The Fed has told investors they can expect the current near 0%...
Inflection point for stocks approaches
Today what I’m calling “re-opening dependent” stock fell again. At least in the early going. Toward the end of session–like yesterday–these stocks and stocks in general rallied. Which in and of itself tells us something important about...
Today markets forget China rally and return to coronavirus recession worries with UAL announcement
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) has warned employees that it has seen a sharp drop in bookings in the last few weeks. Bookings at United’s Newark hub were at 16% of July 2019 levels as of July 1. That rate is roughly half of the level a few weeks ago when it...
Don’t fight the Fed? Well, maybe
The advice “Don’t fight the Fed” makes sense. If the Fed is flooding the financial markets with cash, then buy and follow along as the Fed makes money available to drive up asset prices. If the Fed is tightening, reducing the available supply of...
Patterns and positioning after today’s weakness in stocks
I think anyone who tells you they “know” where stocks are going next week is either smoking something (and I’d like some, please) or is looking to sell you something. In the last two weeks we’ve seen a market that was totally willing to look...
Turns out re-opening is easy; staying re-opened is hard
With Texas setting a one-day high for new coronavirus cases on Wednesday at 6,584 Governor Greg Abbott reversed a pledge that that going “backward” and closing down businesses was “the last thing we want to do.” Effective today bars must close (although they can...
Stock patterns today show deep uncertainty about market direction in today’s buying and selling
It wasn’t a day for big moves in U.S. stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed ahead 0.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.15%, for example. Nobody wants to get every far ahead of the trend–whichever direction it’s...
Stop torturing the data to determine the “reality” of the coronavirus re-opening–Look to an early adopter model from technology to determine the stock market trend from the re-opening economy
I’m as much in favor of reality as the next guy. Maybe more so. And during the coronavirus pandemic and the current economic re-opening I’ve been scarfing up every bit of data that I can. I begin my day by digging into the latest news of cases n Arizona,...
Retail sales soar in May; Wall Street decides it’s a sign of a V-shaped recovery for the economy
May retail sales surged 17.7% from April. The pickup was a record month over month gain in data going back to 1992, the Commerce Department reported this morning. Stocks jumped on the news–as well as a trial balloon testing the waters on yet another attempt at a...
Why today’s official jobs and unemployment rate numbers are probably wrong
According to the official Labor Department report on jobs and unemployment for May, the economy added 2.5 million workers in the month and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% (from 14.7% in April.) Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 6 million drop in...
Anticipating more rally for the end of this week: slower growth in new claims for unemployment (Thursday) and in job cuts (Friday) likely to be seen as signs of a bottom for economy
Tomorrow it’s Thursday and time for another weekly report on initial claims for unemployment. In absolute terms the numbers are likely to be grim. Economists project that tomorrow’s report will show another 1.8 million workers have filed new claims for...
Jim’s Extra! A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices–3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor’s 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today–continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal...
Wall Street starts to watch something called the market price/liquidity ratio to justify this rally
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index may be closing in on the February 19 record closing high of 3386.15–about 11.2% from the Friday, May 29, close at 3044.31, but some Wall Street strategists see more rally ahead–with a close at the end of...
Can stocks now count on a Trump Put?
I think we witnessed the birth of a Trump Put on the stock market in today’s Rose Garden press event that investors and traders can pin beside their terminals along with the Powell Put from the Federal Reserve. Ahead of what had been billed as an announcement...
New claims for unemployment 2.12 million for week ended May 23
The stock market is seeing the glass as half full this morning. This morning the Labor Department reported that 2.12 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment in the week that ended on May 23. That is down from 2.45 million initial claims in the prior week...
S&P 500 becomes untethered from earnings growth
Yesterday’s rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500, which pushed the index back over 3,000, sent the forward price to earnings ratio–that is the PE based on projected earnings per share for the stocks in the index–to 23.36. That’s the...
Jim’s Extra! Of the 3 reasons I think the re-opening economy will disappoint, the biggest is state budget cuts
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Do you see what I see?
This morning what I saw in photos and videos from this past Memorial Day weekend was a country rushing pell mell toward re-opening the economy without a thought for safety amidst a still uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak. I saw photos of crowds at beaches, on board...
Here’s why stocks went up today even with news that the economy contracted by 4.8% in the first quarter
My explanation. See if this makes sense to you. Nothing in the rear view window matters to Wall Street right now. Not first quarter earnings. Not economic growth or the lack thereof. Nothing in the second quarter matters either. Forecasts of a 30% or more drop in...
The re-opening rally is back on
Today is all about optimism–forget plunging oil prices, uncertain earnings, or a first quarter drop in GDP– for an upturn in the economy as more states–Colorado is newest to climb on board–re-open parts of their economies. Today, at least, no...
Jim’s Extra! 5 MORE smart, short-term moves while we wait for longer-term trends to resolve
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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