Are stocks headed for an earnings season of selling on the good news?
Beware the Ides of April. As that well known Roman risk taker Julius Caesar found out many quarters ago, living up to expectations can be a tough job. And the crowd can take it out of your hide whether you do or don’t. All that applies to the upcoming earnings...Are things as bad as most investors think they are? I'd say No
One of the cliches about bear markets is that they’re so devastating to investors’ portfolios because they (1)inflict huge losses in the sell-off and then (2) leave most investors so traumatized that they can’t bring themselves to participate in any rallies. Well,...The indicators are pointing? Well, they're confusing
Stocks keep going up. But the market indicators are getting stranger and stranger. On the one hand, the VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index, commonly called the “fear index” because it’s a measure of how nervous investors are, is back to levels of complacency that...Stocks show signs today of having more fuel in the tank
I wouldn’t get complacent about this rally but it passed some milestones yesterday and today (March 9) that argue it has some more room to run. Here are the positive signs: In the final hour today volume picked up. That’s a huge positive because if a rally is to...Yum, yum! Is risk tasty again?
What do these sectors—solar energy, wind, gold, Spain, Italy, steel, metals and mining, and retail—have in common? They’re all among market leaders today. ETFs (exchange traded funds) in these sectors are outpacing the Standard & Poor’s 500 (up 0.5% as of 12:25...Is it a bull? Is it a bear? A strategy for making the best of a market that's both
So this is a cyclical bull market rally of potentially up to three to four years’ duration inside a secular bear market steady decline of potentially 10 to 20 years? That’s what I argued in my post of February 19...Why even after a 70% gain this is still a secular bear market
This is still a bear market Even though stocks, measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index, were up 70% from their March 9, 2009 low to their recent high on January 19, 2010. Yep. Yes indeed. Absolutely. If by bear market you’re talking about what’s called...So is the correction over already?
So that’s all ya got? If the much feared correction is over, then investors are still waiting for the kind of 10% correction that normally punctuates a rally. From the January 19 peak close at 1150.23 to what is so far the bottom at 1056.74 at the close on February 8,...Forget the January effect–this year watch the Lunar New Year effect
When thinking about when to buy Chinese stocks, don’t forget the Lunar New Year effect. China’s New Year holiday stretches from February 13 to February 21 this year. And Shanghai and other Chinese stock markets will be closed for five days from Monday February 15...Odds that this is a 10% correction (and not just 5%) rise as tech stocks sink
About a week ago, on January 22, I wrote a post called “So far this looks like just a correction” https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/22/so-far-this-looks-like-just-a-correction/ I noted that the rally that began in March had been dotted with 5% corrections, but that we...Stocks have nothing to fear but uncertainty itself
What will it take to stop the downturn in U.S. stocks? Traders and investors stepping up to buy stocks. Whatever the reason—good earnings, some positive news on the economy, a reassuring statement from the Federal Reserve, whatever—stocks won’t go up unless more money...A glimmer of an end to the rout in stocks?
Stocks around the world took a beating last week. So what will this week bring? A continued slide or a rebound? Monday, January 25, has started off on a mixed but positive note. Before the U.S. stock markets opened, trading in London showed futures on the Standard...When to buy
If this is a correction and if this is therefore a buying opportunity, how long do you wait? That’s the most asked question I’m seeing in the comment sections of the Jubak Picks today. My opinion? I think we’ve got more downside next week. And I’m going to explain why...So far this looks like just a correction
Lots of investors have been waiting for a correction, arguing that no market can go only straight up and that the longer stocks go without a 10% correction they riskier they became. Well, it looks like we might be about to get that correction. The Dow Jones Industrial...2010–well, the first half anyway–looks good for stocks despite the current correction
The odds that the U.S. stock market will win its current bet look daunting. Especially with stocks currently threatening a good-sized correction. Investors are betting that the U.S. economy will produce a big enough increase in earnings to keep stock prices headed...What comes after the Ho, Ho, Ho! of the Santa Claus rally usually isn't quite as jolly
It’s January. Time to think about taking some profits? Or at least to settle in for a period when U.S. stocks as a whole don’t go much of anywhere. January ends the three month period that for more than 50 years has been on average the best part of the year for...Another day, another GDP revision: I don't think new numbers on the 3rd quarter will tell investors much tomorrow
Stocks and the U.S. dollar rallied today, December 21, on a belief that U.S. economic growth will be so strong in 2010 that even a Federal Reserve interest rate hike around mid-year won’t be enough to derail a recovery. Tomorrow the market gets a little dose of...And now for something shocking: The dollar and stocks start to move up in tandem
I’m seeing the first signs of a new relationship between stocks and the U.S. dollar. Ever since Lehman Bros went into bankruptcy in the fall of 2008, the dollar and stocks have been negatively connected. When the dollar went up, stocks went down, as investors saw any...What's the matter with …? (Fill in the blank with your favorite stock)
Nothing like a market where volume is drying up as it usually does at the end of the year—which makes it easier for traders to move stocks on news and rumors. Especially when the world is so busy supplying lots of potentially market-moving headlines. It’s a potent...Yes, stocks are rotating away from risk but does it mean anything?
On the surface the stock market isn’t going anywhere. The choppy daily action hardly moves the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in a narrow range between 1088 and 1100. A “strong” rally like that of December 11 moves the index 4 points or 0.37%. But beneath the surface...Watch tomorrow's initial claims for unemployment number for signs that the economy is strong?/weaker? than expected
Time to torture the data! Wall Street will have the red-hot irons and the Spanish boots out in full force tomorrow morning trying to extract the last bit of information out of the initial claims for unemployment number that will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The hope...Short-term stock market momentum falters; watch for signs of a further breakdown
So far—as of yesterday, that is—the dollar rally has been just a bounce. But a rising dollar has now pushed the euro, the Australian and Canadian dollar, and the Brazilian real down to a critical level. Same is true for gold, oil, and other commodities that have...Santa is leaving coal for regional bank stocks this year
‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling. When good investors go to sleep with visions of taking losses to offset profits dancing in their heads. Investors sell losing stocks in November and December in order to generate tax deductions they can use to offset profits...Up for the dollar and down for almost everything else
So far this morning looks a lot like Friday afternoon. The dollar is up against the euro to its highest level in a month as traders continue to bet that the smaller than expected job loss announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday is a sign that the U.S....Good news on jobs hurts Treasuries, oil, stocks; crushes gold
All it took was an unexpectedly strong unemployment report. Following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of numbers showing the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November rather than the expected 125,000, the Dollar Index broke above its 2009 trend line and the...What does it say if today's good news on unemployment doesn't lead stocks higher?
Stocks should soar today. If they don’t, investors will need to rethink their explanation for recent market weakness. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November. That was a huge surprise. Wall Street had...Not a double dip but a sputter for the economy in 2010
The economy is looking increasingly dicey for 2010. Oh, things are okay now. The most recent numbers are, in fact reassuring. The United States seems to be on track for something like 3% economic growth in the fourth quarter. That would be a slight acceleration from...A more defensive rally in November: Is the market losing momentum?
Stocks continue to move up but investors are getting more defensive. You can see it in a list of what sectors led the stock market in November and which lagged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index was up 6.4% in November. Sectors that trailed the S&P for the...Stocks hit the top of the channel again; a 5% correction would be business as usual here
Here we go again. For all the ups and downs; the crisis scares and the crisis solutions; the good numbers and the bad numbers; this stock market is still moving up. But instead of running up by leaps and bounds, it’s now inching up. Each time it rallies it manages to...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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