So what happened to the big market crash?
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again...
Want to know where the market is headed? Watch the reaction to a Nvdia beat
The market reaction to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, to be released after the close on Wednesday, February 21, will tell investors a lot about the short-term direction of this stock market. We’re likely to learn more, however, from the reaction to an Nvidia...
Will the Magnificent Seven stocks let the market down?
The Magnificent Seven stocks accounted for virtually all of 2023’s 24% stock market gain. The Magnificent Seven stocks are Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). And according to Wall...
Bonds keep chugging higher, stock investors have doubts
Bond traders and investors kept the bond rally going today December 20. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped another 8 basis points to 3.85% today. The yield on the 2-year note fell 4 basis points to 4.40%. The drop in yields came as a result of gains in bond...
S&P 500 earnings on track to grow by just 0.6% in 2023
So how much does the year-end stock market rally depend on the Federal Reserve and the anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2023? A huge amount. Perhaps a frightening large amount. Given the very slim year-over-year growth in earnings and revenue likely for 2023 when...
For this week’s Fed meeting, watch the central bank’s Dot Plots and not what it says
Well now, let’s see. What could the financial markets be thinking about this week? The Yankees’trade for Juan Soto? Who will be the next Speaker of the House when Republicans force Mike Johnson out? The link between Mexican avocados and the country’s...
Rally or bear trap: Concentration in megacap tech stocks reaches a record high
I’m trying to decide if we’re watching a legitimate rally or a classic bear trap. If this rally is real, and likely to run for a while, investors should be putting cash to work even at market highs. If it’s a bear trap–you know one of those...
Will Tuesday’s rally continue? 3 things I’m watching
One day fluke? The next step in an end of year Santa Claus rally? Huge bear market trap? The beginning of the next big Bull market? Tough questions to answer but important for figuring out an investment strategy for NOW. So here are three things that I’ll be...
Want to know where this rally is headed? Watch Tuesday’s CPI inflation report
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained. Right now, short-term, stocks look like they want to move higher. That trend is built on a narrative that says, the...
So you knew that most of this year’s stock market gains came from just a few BIG tech stocks–but did you know the difference was this big?
You’ll find the answer to that question at the end of all this explainin’ I’ve been hammering away at how narrow this market rally is. Most of the gains have gone to investors in just a handful of very big technology stocks. You know that. But did...
The stock market is trading in narrower and narrower bands
Important observation out of Morningstar on Friday. While the Morningstar U.S. Market Index is up 15.4% from its bear-market low on October 14, the market is only 1.4% higher than it was at the end of November. AND in recent months, the stock market has been moving in...
Stocks struggle today as macro “facts” look more negative
As of the close in New York today, February 9, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.88% and the NASDAQ Composite was off 1.02%. That’s not a big absolute drop but it does mark quite a turnaround from earlier in the day. At 9:51 a.m. the S&P 500...
Will Netflix earnings on Thursday shock the market?
Right now Wall Street analysts project that on Thursday, January 19, Netflix (NFLX) will report earnings of just 44 cents a share for the fourth quarter of 2022. That would be a huge drop from the $1.33 the company reported in the fourth quarter of 2021. If Netflix...
Apple, Amazon, Alphabet,Adobe, Applied Materials and other big techs rally hard–rest of stocks not so much
Today, Monday November 29, it’s a tale of two bounces from Friday’s big sell off. Technology stocks and especially big technology stocks are up big. At the close in New York Applied Materials was up 5.53%. Adobe (ADBE) was ahead 3.83%. Nvidia (NVDA) was...
In today’s rally everyone loves risk–which isn’t necessarily a good thing
If you look only at the major indexes, today was a mildly positive day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.30%, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.73% at the close and the NASDAQ 100 added 0.77%. The small...
Ho, hum: Another day another stock market record
Stocks climbed for a sixth straight day–the longest string of gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 since August and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning in its best start for a February since 1931. The S&P 500 finished the day ahead 0.34%...
Today, Friday November 26, smacks of desperation–to catch up with the indexes
It was a short session today, the Friday after Thanksgiving, on Wall Street but that didn’t stop the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite from setting new all-time records. The S&P 500 closed up 0.24%. The NASDAQ Composite finished...
Was yesterday the high tide for near-term optimism?
If you remember, my “calendar” listed a short-term post-election rally to be followed by a downward trending market into the early part of December. And then a renewed rally heading into January. I didn’t include yesterday’s coronavirus vaccine...
Slide in the afternoon doesn’t augur well for tomorrow
The NASDAQ Composite was down an already punishing 2.75% at noon in New York. But the damage wasn’t done for the day. The tech-heavy index closed the day down 4.11% And the big techs, the stocks that had driven the rally up and are now pacing the move down, sold...
This rally is built on the Powell Put and, now, the Vaccine Put–what could possibly go wrong?
Yesterday in my post “Now there are two Puts supporting the market as the Vaccine Put joins the Powell Put. Those two bets–that the Federal Reserve will continue to flood the financial markets with cash and will increase the flow if the markets start to...
Market passes baton back to Fed’s Powell Put for today’s rally
On Monday the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit new all-time highs on what I’m calling the Vaccine Put, the hope that we’ll see the announcement of an approved coronavirus vaccine by early in 2021 or maybe even the end of 2020...
What rally? Yes, tech has zoomed but the average stock in the S&P 500 was still down 28% from its February peak as of the Friday close.
Forget about a “V-shaped” recovery or a “W-shaped” bounce-pullback-move up again recovery. The talk on Wall Street is now about a “K-shaped” recovery where a handful of companies and their shares sooar ahead but where the average...
Dancing around the 200-day moving average
At 3:00 p.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.33%to 3012.13. That, not so coincidently, is almost exactly the 200-day moving average for the index at 3012.39. Today, no big bounce after yesterday’s 5.89% drop for the index. Bargain...
What happens when computer trading programs and individual investors agree? You get a 6% drop in stocks
I don’t know who/what started the rout today, human beings or machines. But conditions were ripe for selling from both sources. On the human side, investors were looking at gains of 50% or more in the last month in stocks that had been crushed by the coronavirus...
Has the market broken it’s upward trend? I’m watching the big tech stocks as indicators
As of 12:30 p.m. New York time today, U.S. stocks had continued their downward move of yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was lower by 2.23% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had tumbled 2.35%. The NASDAQ Composite was off 2.44% and the Russell 2000...
Down 3.58% yesterday; up 7.24% today–what does Netflix’s volatility mean for sellers or buyers?
On Tuesday after the close of trading Netflix (NFLX) smashed through fourth quarter projections by adding 8.76 million subscribers globally in the quarter. That easily beat analyst estimates for the quarter of 7.9 million new subscribers. For the quarter earnings came...
The first of four not so easy pieces for rebalancing any portfolio but specifically my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
In an ideal world, every stock market trend–up, down, sideways–would begin on January 1 and end on December 31. That would make an annual rebalancing of any portfolio as easy as falling off a madly spinning log in a Canadian logging festival. Most market...
Stocks start 2020 in melt-up mood
We’ve seen this before. And investors and traders seem determined to keep a good thing going–until it doesn’t work anymore. Today, January 2, the first trading day in the new year for U.S. markets, stocks were off to the rally races again. The...
Can earnings be the catalyst to take markets higher? Not this quarter, at least
Join me on my search for the elusive catalyst that could take U.S. stocks higher from what is already an all-time high. Quiet, though, catalysts can be very shy. Peaking through the bushes surrounding the water hole, I can see signs of company earnings. The big banks,...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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