May 29, 2022 @ 11:07 pm | Breaking News |
I’m looking for a test this week of the new “Fed Call” theory. A few weeks ago, before last week’s rally anyway, the theory starting going around that the “Fed Put” (sometimes called the “Powell Put”) was dead. The Fed...
September 2, 2020 @ 7:15 pm | Breaking News |
Yesterday in my post “Now there are two Puts supporting the market as the Vaccine Put joins the Powell Put. Those two bets–that the Federal Reserve will continue to flood the financial markets with cash and will increase the flow if the markets start to...
September 1, 2020 @ 7:26 pm | Breaking News |
First, there was the Powell Put, the conviction of Wall Street and investors that the Federal Reserve would ride to the rescue to support stock prices if financial markets or the economy threatened to tumble. The existence of a Powell Put didn’t seem arguable as...
August 28, 2020 @ 7:37 pm | Breaking News |
As anticipated in Wednesday’s rally–the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its...
August 26, 2020 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News |
On Monday the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit new all-time highs on what I’m calling the Vaccine Put, the hope that we’ll see the announcement of an approved coronavirus vaccine by early in 2021 or maybe even the end of 2020...
May 29, 2020 @ 7:28 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
I think we witnessed the birth of a Trump Put on the stock market in today’s Rose Garden press event that investors and traders can pin beside their terminals along with the Powell Put from the Federal Reserve. Ahead of what had been billed as an announcement...
November 21, 2019 @ 7:01 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
October 8, 2019 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News |
It quacks like quantitative easing. It walks like quantitative easing. But it’s not quantitative easing. According to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell anyway. In a speech today, October 8, to the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said the...
August 19, 2019 @ 7:55 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Gotta love that financial market enthusiasm for central banks. Last week the markets rallied on signals from the European Central Bank that it would cut its key interest rate–now at a negative 0.40%–to a negative -0.50%, lower the rates that banks pay to...
August 16, 2019 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News |
We’ve seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in–not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany’s Der...
June 25, 2019 @ 7:05 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The financial markets are getting ahead of themselves in a bad case of rate cut fever, Fed chair Jerome Powell, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard both said today. This is a message that I’ve been waiting to hear as the financial markets moved to price in...
June 19, 2019 @ 6:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
So much for “patient.” Today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee on interest rates the Federal Reserve announced that it would leave benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.50%. But in its words the Fed delivered what the market hoped...
May 29, 2019 @ 6:40 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
U.S. stocks dropped again today with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down another 0.69% to 2783.03. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied with the price of the 10-yer bond up enough to push the yield down to 2.21% for a drop in yield of 26 basis points in the...
May 15, 2019 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...
January 31, 2019 @ 7:28 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there’s more chance of an interest rate cut than of a...