Watch my new New YouTube video: Forget GameStop; It’s the Fed’s bubble to burst.
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The eighth YouTube video “Forget Gamestope; It’s the Fed’s Bubble to Burst” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
Yields on the 10-year Treasury pull back a bit in today’s auction
For a day, at least, the seemingly inexorable climb in Treasury yields stopped. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is up 23 basis points in the last month, dropped back to 1.13%, a retreat of 2 basis points. (It takes 100 basis points to make up one percentage...
Inflation worries? You’ve got to be kidding but bond market starts to price in higher interest rates
The stock market is in the midst of euphoria at the prospect that unified Democratic control of the White House and Congress will mean more fiscal stimulus–those $2,000 checks for a start–increased aid to cities, and increased spending (maybe) on...
Fed stands pat on interest rates, bond buying–and again expresses worry about coronavirus and lack of a stimulus bill
Today, November 5, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee decided to keep the target for the federal funds interest rate in the 0% to 0.25% range where it’s been since March. And to continue bond purchases at the current rate of $120 billion a month....
How old fashioned! CBO worries that U.S. government debt will hit 2 times GDP by 2050
The U.S. government’s debt will be almost twice the size of the U.S. economy by 2050, according to new projections from the Congressional Budget Office. That would be up from 98% this year and 79% in 2019. (The prior, pre-coronavirus forecast for 2050 debt in January...
This rally is built on the Powell Put and, now, the Vaccine Put–what could possibly go wrong?
Yesterday in my post “Now there are two Puts supporting the market as the Vaccine Put joins the Powell Put. Those two bets–that the Federal Reserve will continue to flood the financial markets with cash and will increase the flow if the markets start to...
Now there are two Puts supporting the market as the Vaccine Put joins the Powell Put
First, there was the Powell Put, the conviction of Wall Street and investors that the Federal Reserve would ride to the rescue to support stock prices if financial markets or the economy threatened to tumble. The existence of a Powell Put didn’t seem arguable as...
Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer
As anticipated in Wednesday’s rally–the Standard & Poor’s 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%–Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its...
Market passes baton back to Fed’s Powell Put for today’s rally
On Monday the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit new all-time highs on what I’m calling the Vaccine Put, the hope that we’ll see the announcement of an approved coronavirus vaccine by early in 2021 or maybe even the end of 2020...
Fed pledges to hold interest rates near 0% through 2022–stocks dip anyway
Could this be the first signs that the financial markets are questioning Goldilocks? Investors and traders heard almost everything they could have hoped to hear from the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting Open Market Committee meeting today. Sure, the Fed...
Another reason stocks are rallying? A belief in negative interest rates by early 2021
The Fed funds futures market, which trades bets on where the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rates are headed, has rallied this week to send prices for futures contracts in early 2021 above 100. Above 100 traders are pricing in negative interest rates from...
Fed keeps policy stable, says 0% rates as far as the eye can see
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current level of 0%-0.25%. And there were very few changes in the central bank’s language. But a few subtle shifts are worth noting, I believe. The Fed said in early April that “We have also committed...
Think the Fed got everyone’s attention with a Sunday night interest rate cut to 0%?
On Sunday night the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut interest rates to 0% (actually a policy range of 0% to 0.25%) from the current 1.00% to 1.25% range. The central bank will also resume its program of quantitative easing by buying at least $700 billion in...
Credit markets are even uglier than stock markets
By now I assume you know that today was another brutal day for U.S. stocks (although markets moved up significantly in the last hour.) The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down another 1.71% and the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 0.98%. The NASDAQ Composite was...
Oops!”Emergency” interest rate cut spurs U.S. stock sell off as Fed creates negative feedback loop
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced an “emergency” 50 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate. The cut left the Fed benchmark with a range of 1% to 1.25%. The move comes ahead of the Fed’s regular meeting on March 18. The interest rate cut,...
For another day, at least, financial markets continue to believe in central bank fairy dust
Financial markets moved higher on news that finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven economies will hold a teleconference tomorrow, Tuesday, on how to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. The expectation is that central banks in Japan, England,...
Jim’s Extra!! Next big date in the coronavirus selloff? March 18
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
GDP up at 2.1% rate in 4th quarter but weakness emerges (or continues) in the numbers
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That matches the growth rate for the third quarter and is slightly above the 2% growth predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Full-year GDP growth finished at 2.3% in 2019, the lowest of...
India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets
Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn’t mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank’s December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly
As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global...
Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
Fed report notes that continuing low interest rates could threaten U.S. (and global) financial security.
Well, duh. Yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee that”we’re in a world of much lower interest rates.” He seemed to shrug his shoulders at the prospect as if to say, Hey that’s what it is and the Fed doesn’t...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning’s testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn’t important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it...
Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go
Here’s the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the...
I think we can call this a data dependent market for Friday
The trend in U.S. financial markets this week has pointed down on data that shows the U.S. economy is slowing. Certainly the disappointing numbers in both the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Indexes have supported that conclusion. That could all change...
Wall Street puts two more 2019 interest rate cuts back on the table
Yesterday’s disappointing Purchasing Managers Index news on U.S. manufacturing has put two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve back on Wall Street’s expectations.(Economists had expected that the PMI number for September would show the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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