New unemployment claims fall but by less than expected
The job market is improving, but the rate of improvement is tantalizingly slow. New weekly jobless claims in regular state unemployment programs fell for the week ended on June 19 to 411,000. Economists had expected a drop to 380,000. The prior week saw a (revised)...
As promised in my YouTube video: How to position a portfolio for this market (additional thoughts)
To continue from my last post: Second, I think it’s just as important to recognize that even though the market is very slow and very reluctant to abandon a profitable long-tern macro story, it is very comfortable and indeed very adept at recognizing shorter term...
As promised in my YouTube video: How to position a portfolio for this market (first thoughts)
After Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve, we all know that an interest rate increase is coming–even if we don’t know when. Could be 2022. Could be 2023. And even if we don’t know how many increases we’re looking for in that time...
Today brings the selling that many expected after Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Yesterday, growth stocks climbed in the face of signals from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday that interest rates increase were coming sooner–as soon as the end of 2022–than expected. That seemed puzzling. May be, one line of thought (mine) had it,...
The Standard & Poor’s 500 is basically flat with a loss of just 0.04% as of the close today. If you want ACTION!!! you have to look elsewhere: To the NASDAQ Composite, which was up 0.87% at the close and to the small cap Russell 2000, which was down 1.18%...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-eighth YouTube video “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Today it’s the Dot Plot and not the Fed’s story that sends prices down
The rhetoric was the same after today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee: “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.” The Fed kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0% to 0.25% But the Dot Plot...
Faith in the Fed, yes, but today no one wanted to get too far ahead of the June 16 meeting
Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 hit its first new all-time high since early May as investors and traders bought into the reassurance from the Federal Reserve that the 5% year over year increase in the Consumer Price Index was merely a temporary jump in...
Prices rise by a 5% year over year rate in May, market continues to buy Fed argument that inflation is temporary
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 5 percent in May from May 2020. That’s the fastest rate of increase since the Great Recession that followed on the Global Financial Crisis. Both the Federal Reserve and the Biden White House...
PCE inflation up at 3.6% rate in April; financial markets agree that inflation surge is temporary
Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose at a year over year rate of 3.6% in April. Prices rose 0.6% in April from March, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced this morning....
Go away in May but come back when?
The Wall Street adage “Sell in May and go away” looks to be spot on this year. At the close yesterday on May 18, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which tracks the NASDAQ 100, was still p 2.83% for 2021, but down 2.96% for the last three months and off...
Inflation soars and today investors are worried the Federal Reserve has lost control
Consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared in April. For the month prices in the all-item index gained 0.8% for a 12-month increase of 4.2%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices in the food and energy sectors, was up 0.9% in April...
Watch my new YouTube video: 5 Stocks for an Inflation Scare
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-third YouTube video “Five Stocks for an Inflation Scare” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
VIX “fear index” spikes ahead of Wednesday’s CPI inflation report
Stocks are down across the markets today, May 11–with the Standard & Poor’s 500 lower by 0.87% at the close, the Dow down 1.36%, and the NASDAQ Composite off 0.09%–ahead of tomorrow’s report on the Consumer Price Index read on inflation....
What’s there to be afraid of this week? How about Wednesday’s CPI inflation report
Today’s drop in stocks–a drop of 1.04% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and a loss of 2.55% for the NASDAQ Composite at the close on May 10–is a reminder that runaway economic growth is only one horn of the financial market’s fears...
Weak jobs surprise send risk stocks up–but doesn’t take shine off commodity-inflation plays or reopening bets
Basically everything was up to one degree or another on the surprisingly weak jobs report–the economy added only 266,000 jobs–for April. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed higher by 0.74% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%. The...
Today’s ADP jobs survey keeps markets on edge over Friday’s government jobs report for April
U.S. private employers in April added the most jobs in seven months, according to data from the ADP Research Institute released today. Company payrolls rose by 743,000 in the month. That’s a big gain from the upwardly revised 565,000 gain in March. And...
Jobs, jobs, jobs: A blockbuster report on April jobs on Friday is likely to put more pressure on the Federal Reserve
The U.S. economy is likely to have added 978,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report on Friday May 5, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be up from March’s gain of 916,000 jobs and would be the biggest increase since...
Trifecta for stocks today–yield on the 10-year Treasury drops to 1.58%, another 6 basis points lower
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 6 basis coins to 1.58% today, April 15. The drop brings yields back to where they were in early March. More importantly for the current rally that continues to take stocks up to record highs after day, the drop in yields...
Consumer price inflation rises more than expected but markets go “So What?”
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in March from February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Year over year consumer prices are 2.6% higher than they were in March 2020. Economists had projected that the headline CPI would climb 0.5% in March from...
Show us the jobs, Federal Reserve says, before any interest rate increase
We want to see the job gains before we remove any support for the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at an event at the International Monetary Fund, on Thursday, April 8. Putting another marker in the ground on when the central bank might start to...
New claims for unemployment up again this week
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose by 16,000 to 744,000 in the week ended April 3, the Labor Department reported today, April 8. This was the second straight weekly increase in new claims. For the prior week, the total new claims figure was...
Nothing in the Federal Reserve minutes released today to pause financial markets.
Nothing to see here. Move along. In the minutes from its March 16-17 meeting, released today April 7, Federal Reserve officials told the financial markets “that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the [Open Market] Committee’s...
On second thought, financial markets decide they really didn’t like yesterday’s news from the Federal Reserve
After not moving very much yesterday on the actual news from the Federal Reserve-the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 0.29% and the NASDSQ Composite closed higher by 0.40%, today, March 18, markets decided they really didn’t like the Fed’s...
The Fed stands pat but I see interest rate increase “slippage”
At today’s (March 17) meeting of its Open Market Committee the Federal Reserve held its target interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and continued its commitment to buying $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets, as expected. But the central...
Can the Fed win on Wednesday against market sentiment?
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve will update its projections for GDP growth, inflation, and the timing of any interest rate increase. In December, Fed officials, on the famous (or infamous) dot plot indicated that that central bank officials expected to hold benchmark...
I almost forgot…the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday
With everything going on, it’s easy to forget about the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee, on Wednesday. Which would be a mistake because, in my opinion, nothing is more important than interest...
Just so we’re all on the same page: My buy of CPER and KWBW hedges posted yesterday and an add of the KWBW hedge to the Jubak Picks Portolio today
Call this making sure we’re all on the same page. Yesterday in my YouTube video and in my latest addition to my Special Report: “Profit and Protect” I added the U.S. Copper Fund ETF (CPER) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) to my Perfect Five ETF...
Don’t expect too much movement from stocks in the next couple of days–there’s just too much news due on Thursday and Friday
Stocks are neither moving ahead to follow up on yesterday’s big gains. Nor selling off under the wave of profit taking. Given the news calendar on Thursday and Friday that’s about what I’d expect. We’re due for a bushel of potentially...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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