Powell says just about nothing and market rallies
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively...
New claims for unemployment tick up slightly–if the numbers can be believed
Applications for unemployment benefits in regular state programs rose last week to 207,000 for the week ended January 1, the Labor Department reported today, Thursday, January 6. That was up 7,000 from the prior week and above the 195,000 predicted by economists...
Markets don’t like what they hear in Fed minutes from December
Today, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from its December 15 meeting of its interest-rate setting body the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors and traders didn’t like what they thought they heard–a growing consensus on a first interest rate...
U.S. private payrolls grew by 807,000 jobs in December, ADP says today as market waits for Fed minutes from December meeting
U.S. private payrolls grew by 807,000 in December, according to ADP Research Institute today. That’s the most jobs added in a month in seven months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected an increase of 410,000. Financial market reaction has been modest...
10-year Treasury yields pop today
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 11 basis points as of 1:30 p.m. New York time today, Monday, January 3, to 1.62%. That’s the first time the yield has been above 1.60% since the emergence of the Omicron Variant in November. The yield on the 30-year...
What’s ahead for the stock market (and investors) in 2022? Here’s what to look for to drive the year
Looking ahead at 2022, it’s not too hard to list the forces that will drive the financial markets. Putting those forces together and blocking out a schedule for their effects on the stock market? Well, that’s a lot harder. But let me try. Here’s my...
Watch my new YouTube Video: Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-first YouTube video “Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s...
CPI inflation ran at 6.8% annual rate in November–exactly what economists had projected so stocks moved higher
Stocks rose today, December 10, as a huge jump in CPI inflation exactly matched economists’ projections. As they say on the basketball court, “No surprise; no foul.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed at a 6.8% annual rate in November....
Watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Wells Fargo
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventy-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Wells Fargo” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
Federal Reserve’s Powell stops calling inflation “transitory” and stocks tank–except for Apple
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation in testimony today in front of the Senate Banking Committee. And, Powell continued, the Fed might accelerate the pace at which it is winding down its purchase of...
Watch my new YouTube video: Recalculating the interest rate outlook for 2022
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventy-second YouTube video “Recalculating the interest rate outlook for 2022” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
Selling remaining Treasury ETFs out of my portfolios
On what looks like solid odds for interest rate increases in 2022, I’m selling my remaining Treasury ETFs out of my portfolios. (Treasuries drop in price as interest rate and yields climb.) I’m selling the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) out of my...
Fed says it will start taper of asset purchases in November with end to buying by middle of 2022
After today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee the U.S. central bank said it would start slowing the pace of its monthly $120 billion in asset purchases this month. The slowdown would take place at a rate of $15 billion a month, which...
Beware the bond market’s duration bomb
As bond yields have tumbled because of the Federal Reserve’s lower interest rates for longer monetary stance, investors have compensated by buying longer duration bonds. The logic is pretty simply. A one-year Treasury now yields 0.11%. A two-year Treasury pays...
Why financial markets didn’t believe today’s jobs number
Going into today’s September jobs report, the consensus speculation was that a print of fewer than 200,000 new jobs for the month had the potential to move the market because it would be weak enough to push the Federal Reserve into putting off its plans to begin...
Tomorrow’s September jobs number is the BIG DEAL for this week
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting the economy to have added 500,000 jobs in September. Anything way above or way below the number will move expectations on when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasuries and...
Treasury yields broke out of their range last week
After being range-bound for months, yields on the 10-year Treasury broke through the top of a range that’s held since mid-July. Yields ended the week at 1.45%. The 50-day moving average on 10-year yields was 1.29% on Friday. The 2021 low, set in August, was...
More (verbal) news from the Fed this afternoon than the consensus expected
As expected the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee kept the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at 0% to 0.25% and left its bond buying program on a path to buy $120 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets a month. Unexpectedly, though,...
Stocks gain on “No surprises” speech from Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn’t surprise Wall Street with his speech today at the (virtual) Jackson Hole central bankers conference. Instead he left the Federal Reserve on a path to begin reducing its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets...
Stock market “frets” ahead of tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed chair Powell
Investors and traders are hedging their bets–a little–ahead of tomorrow morning’s speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the central banker’s (virtual) Jackson Hole jamboree. The worry is that Powell will says something relatively...
Is it “Delta Variant to the rescue” for financial bets on lower for longer interest rates from the Fed?
This quote on Bloomberg today caught my eye. It may be a crucial explanation for why the market is so unfazed by the possibility that the Federal Reserve might announce a schedule for paring back its $120 billion in bond purchases either at next week’s central...
Release of Federal Reserve July minutes sends stocks tumbling
Very little mystery about what sent stocks lower today, August 18. As of 2:10 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat for the day with a tick down of just 0.05%. By 2:16, after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s...
Stocks decide inflation is in retreat and move higher
The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.5% in July. That was in line with Wall Street expectations. And down from the 0.9% gain in the inflation index reported for June. That was enough to send stock prices higher as investors and traders decided the data supports the...
July job report says the economy added 943,000 jobs in July: Did it really? What’s it all mean
This morning the Labor Department released its July jobs report. It showed a gain in non-farm payrolls of 943,000 against 938,000 in June and the 865,000 proejcted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The headline unemployment rate fell to 5.4% from 5.9% in June and a...
Federal Reserve says it is staying the course, for now
No change. But change coming someday. (Not soon, though.) That was the message from today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The central bank held interest rates steady at 0% to 0.25% and maintained its schedule for purchases of...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
The week’s big event? Friday’s report on jobs for June
All eyes on the Friday morning release of the June employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a rebound from a weak May report to 700,000 net jobs added in June. May was a surprisingly weak 559,000 new jobs....
No surprise: Fed’s preferred inflation measure climbs at 3.9% year over year rate in May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in May to an increase of 3.9% from May 2020. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed at a 3.4% rate from May 2020. That was the highest...
New unemployment claims fall but by less than expected
The job market is improving, but the rate of improvement is tantalizingly slow. New weekly jobless claims in regular state unemployment programs fell for the week ended on June 19 to 411,000. Economists had expected a drop to 380,000. The prior week saw a (revised)...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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