Please Watch My New You Tube Video: “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising”
My one-hundred-and-forty-second YouTube video “The Treasury Yield Tide Is Rising” went up today. Yields are up for 2-, 5-, and 10-year Treasuries. I’m also seeing higher expectations for more rate increases in the coming Fed meetings with the odds...
Listen carefully–the Fed says, again, expect a 50 basis point increase in June and July and no September pause
Another Federal Reserve official talked the interest rate increase talk today. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard told CNBC that expectations for half-percentage-point increases in interest rates this month and next were reasonable, and that she saw no case for...
Watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Housing market cools
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week:Housing market cools” went up today. We’re seeing some of the first effects of the Fed’s increase in interest rates in the cooling of the housing market. In Austin, for...
So does the Fed want the stock decline to continue? First Fed speaker of the week emphasizes 50-basis-point interest rate hikes
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said today, May 30, that he wants to keep raising interest rates in half-percentage point steps until inflation is easing back toward the central bank’s goal of 2%. “I support tightening policy by another 50 basis points for...
Fed’s minutes from May meeting reassure markets; everybody is on the same page on interest rates
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 4 meeting shows central bank officials in agreement on the ned for 50-basis-point interest rate increases at the June and July meetings. And then, the minutes say, the Fed would respond to developments in the economy either...
Selling U.S. Bancorp out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Back on April 11 when I sold Wells Fargo (WFC) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) out of portfolios to reduce my exposure to a slowing economy caused by the Federal Reserve interest rate increases, I kept my position in U.S. Bancorp (USB) because I wanted to collect...
Fed’s Bullard says two 50 basis point increases and a move to 3.5% by end of year are a “good benchmark”
But did he have to say it? The financial market would prefer not to think about inflation all the time. The markets are indeed pretty good at ignoring the inconvenient. But this morning Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said out loud what Wall...
U.S. economy adds 428,000 jobs in April; stock market says, Oh! No!
The U.S. economy aded 428,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, May 6. That matched the jobs gains in M arch and was above e the 380,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Economists...
Treasury yields toy with 3% ahead of Wednesday Fed meeting
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project the Federal Reserve will hike its benchmark short-term interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday in an effort to damp inflation. And bond traders have just decided that the U.S.central bank will raise rates by 75 basis...
Headed your way–a flood of numbers on the economy; here’s my preview
Data, data everywhere in the next two days. From inflation to GDP. To begin with the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to report first quarter U.S. GDP growth tomorrow, April 28. Economists expect to see that the economy has grown at an annualized rate of just...
Projections of more aggressive Federal Reserve continue to hammer stocks
The financial markets have moved from pricing in 50 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate at the May 4 and June 15 meetings to considering the possibility that the Fed will increase rates by 75 basis points in June and July. A 25...
Fed March minutes show central bank as hawkish on interest rates as expected/feared
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve released Wednesday, April 6, showed that only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kept the central bank from raising benchmark interest rates by 50 basis points instead the 25 basis-point increase the Fed actually...
Ooof! Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 2.38% at the close today
As of the close today, Tuesday, March 22, Treasuries had sold off steeply raising the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.38%, a huge (for the Treasury bond market) 9 basis points. The rout took the yield on the 2-year Treasury to 2.16%. On Friday,March 18, the 2-year...
Please watch my new YouTube video: The Fed gets depressed
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and thirteenth YouTube video “The Fed gets depressed” went up today. Happy spring! But not for the Fed. In the meeting today, the Federal...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Central Banks tighten faster than expected
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and twelfth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Central banks tighten faster than expected” went up today. This week I’m looking at tightening by...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Hey, remember the Fed! New inflation numbers tomorrow, Friday, morning
I know it’s easy to forget that there’s other market moving news on the horizon (besides what the next day will bring in the Russian invasion of Ukraine) but tomorrow, Friday, February 25, the government will report the Personal Consumption Expenditures...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and-fifth YouTube video “Russia sanctions and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases” went up today. So how will the seemingly imminent...
Next inflation report due Friday and it’s not looking good
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the inflation index that the Federal Reserve uses, is projected at an annual rate of 6% in January, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The core rate, which excludes food and fuels, is forecast to...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
Please watch my YouTube video: 50 basis points in March because the Fed is scared not to
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-ninth YouTube video “50 basis points in March because the Fed is scared not to” went up today. This week, I’m predicting that the Fed will use...
CPI inflation comes in hotter than expected at 7.5%
CPI inflation climbed at a 7.5% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was above the 7.3% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a big jump from the 7.0% annual rate reported in December. The inflation number just...
Tomorrow’s a big day for inflation and interest rate increases from the Fed
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
Federal Reserve delivers the expected
Today, January 26, in its post Open Market Committee press release the Federal Reserve said it would “soon” be appropriate to raise interest rates, as inflation runs above policymakers’ preferred target and the job market strengthens. The Fed left interest rates...
What happens when/if the Federal Reserve does nothing, says (almost) nothing tomorrow?
At the moment, Wall Street is mesmerized by tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. The meeting is almost certain to result in no action on interest rates or Treasury purchases or balance sheet...
It’s a bull market on inflation fears and scary Fed forecasts–which is actually a good thing
Once upon a time there was a stock market with what the central bank called “transitory” inflation. Wall Street money managers worried that the central bank was behind the curve on fighting inflation and projected that interest rates would go up in...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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