Today gold pays attention to dollar, interest rates, Fed
Sometimes it’s not so much new news that moves the market as it is a tipping point where the market decides to pay attention to what it has known all along. Today gold dropped to a three-month low to close at $1253 an ounce. That drop brings the 200-day moving...
You can read today’s inflation data two ways–which will the Fed pick?
Hope you weren’t expecting this morning’s inflation data to tell you whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. (I believe that an interest rate increase at the Fed’s November 2 meeting is just about a...
Brazil–and Itau Unibanco–is rallying big on hopes of an interest rate cut from the central bank
Update September 26, 2016 Could Brazil see the first interest rate cut since 2012 in October? With the Banco Central do Brasil’s benchmark Selic interest rate at 14.25% there’s certainly plenty of room. And even though the country’s politics are a...
Q3 is almost over–will it continue the earnings recession?
Amidst the worry over global growth, interest rates, and central bank stimulus, it’s easy to lose track of the earnings picture for a third quarter that’s due to close in two-and-a-half weeks. Or maybe that’s because no one really wants to focus on...
Have bond markets finally started to have doubts about central bank commitments to endless stimulus?
I’ve been waiting seemingly forever for the financial markets to show some acknowledgement that central bank stimulus policies can’t go on until the sun turns into a dark cinder. For how long have I been waiting? More than a year certainly. But each time I...
Weak report on U.S. service sector puts another nail in coffin for September interest rate increase by the Fed
All this year the U.S. service sector has been making up for weakness in manufacturing. Not in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index slipped to 51.4 in the August survey. That’s down from 55.5 in July and is the lowest...
Weaker than expected August jobs number lowers odds of September rate increase from Fed
Take a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting off the books. Today, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 151,000 net new jobs in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast the...
Worrying manufacturing news today is anxious set up for tomorrow’s August jobs report
Manufacturing activity in the United States contracted, unexpectedly, in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released today, September 1. The index fell to 49.4 in August from 52.6 in July. That was the biggest drop in the...
So far the markets believe the Fed was bluffing in Jackson Hole speeches on September interest rate increase
Last week Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen tried to convince financial markets in her speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole get-together that an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting was still a possibility. But just as the...
Time for me to stop fighting the Fed and its delays on raising interest rates, and sell Capital One
There’s really nothing wrong with the shares of Capital One Financial (COF) that a stronger U.S. economy, a more confident U.S.consumer, and an interest rate increase–or two–from the Federal Reserve wouldn’t fix. It’s just that I...
What the Fed’s do nothing Wednesday said about an interest rate increase in September
My family and I move every 20 years or so whether we need to or not, so on Wednesday when the Fed was making its decision to keep interest rates right where they are, I was busy unpacking all the boxes that we’d packed on Tuesday. (I’m sooo looking forward to the day...
Treasuries slip as market struggles to absorb supply
Update July 12. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to 1.52%, the highest level this month (and prices fell). Last week the yield on the 10-year Treasury hit a record low of 1.318%. The climb in Treasury yields is likely to be temporary, in my opinion. The market is...
Ignore the volatility in monthly jobs numbers–this economy is about where it should be for this point in the cycle
Here’s the smartest thing I’ve read about today’s news that the economy added 287,000 jobs in June, way more than the 180,000 consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg: “The bottom line is that seeing through the month-to-month...
Economy and financial markets point in different directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Pity the poor Federal Reserve. In making decisions about interest rates–in this case about whether or not to raise interest rates at its June, July or September meetings–it has to consider the condition of both the real economy and the financial markets. And right now...
Voting heavy in Brexit referendum despite heavy rains in London and southeast
Despite torrential rains in London and the southeast of England, polling places are reporting long lines for today’s Brexit referendum vote. Before the actual vote, a BMG Research poll for the Electoral Reform Society found that 67% of people said they would...
UK voters decide to leave European Union–What’s next (Part 1 short term effects)?
By a surprisingly large margin of 52% to 48% the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit referendum. Global financial markets plunged in a decline all the more dramatic because traders and investors had decided on Wednesday that the...Even after an "adjustment" at 4.9% China's inflation is too fast
Call it the surprise that wasn’t very surprising. Before today’s release of consumer price inflation data for January in China, economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 5.4% annual inflation rate. That would have been a big increase from the 4.6% annual...So when will interest rate hikes stop hanging over emerging stock markets?
One and done. Two, we’re through. Three, we’re free. Four, no more. Five… At some point the central banks of India, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and other developing countries will decide that they’ve raised interest rates enough to combat inflation. They will...Inflation and interest rates in developed economies? Here's what the markets are predicting now
Here’s an interest rate calendar for the economies of the developed world that you can put up on your office wall—but it is subject to revision. (I know it’s shocking but markets do get this stuff wrong from time to time.) Right now the futures markets are...India shows why money is flowing out of emerging markets right now
Want to see why investors worry so much about the world’s emerging markets that they are taking money out of these stocks? Just take a gander at India. In an effort to fight inflation the Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates seven times in the last 12...Sell Branco Bradesco (BBD)
This is a very tough call. If I owned more than one Brazilian bank stock, I might not sell Banco Bradesco (BBD) out of Jubak’s Picks today—but I don’t. If I had less exposure to Brazilian stocks in my Jubak’s Picks portfolio, I might not sell Banco Bradesco—but I own...Brazil's new central bank president steps on the brakes with a 50 basis point interest rate increase
Not as bad as the worst forecasts, but the January 19 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase from Brazil’s central bank does promise that Alexandre Tombini, new president of the Banco Central do Brasil, is going to aggressively raise rates to fight inflation....China will set the tone for global stock markets in 2011 but what message are China's stocks sending now?
The Shanghai stock market is closed today, Monday January 3, to observe New Year’s Day—which gives investors a chance to catch up on the market’s rather unusual reaction to a Christmas Day interest rate increase by the People’s Bank of China.The Fed says it will stay the course and bond yields keep moving up
Nothing surprising in the news from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee yesterday. The Fed said its plans were unchanged and that it would buy $600 billion in Treasuries in the first six months of 2011 in order to stimulate the economy. The economy itself, the...Higher interest rates, lower bond prices–it's a new world
It’s a bond rout. On December 8, prices for U.S. Treasuries plunged and yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a six-month high of 3.33%. That’s a full percentage point higher than the October low. And it’s a shocking 0.76 percentage points above the yield...Inflation rages ahead in China, rising 5.1% in November: So where's the action from Beijing?
Bad news from the consumer price inflation numbers released in China on December 11. Inflation not only climbed in November from October’s already too-high 4.4% annual rate but jumped to a 5.1% pace. That’s well above the 4.7% rate that economists surveyed by...Bond prices are down and yields up–and the trend looks like it could go on for a while
It’s not just happening to U.S. Treasuries. Bond prices are plunging and yields soaring for developed economy bonds across the globe. The benchmark 10-year yields on government debt in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Japan are all up by 20 to 25% in...Shanghai stock market falls on speculation that another interest rate increase is on the way–soon
On the Shanghai stock market it’s time to play “Can you guess what the government will do next?” As fans of this ever popular game know, the point is to guess what market roiling move Beijing plans next and then by buying or selling to get your portfolio positioned to...China stocks reverse; Shanghai finishes up 2% on belief that yesterday's interest rate hike will be last one
Well, that’s one way to read it. After dropping in the first hour of trading, China’s stocks climbed,with the Shanghai Composite Index going from a 1% loss in the first hour to a 2% gain at the close. Investors and traders in China have apparently decided that...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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