Existing home sales say Fed hasn’t wrecked U.S. economy in a week
Reassuring. Existing home sales in May rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.62 million. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 5.52 million annual rate. The May total is up from April’s revised total of 5.56 million and is 2.7% above the...
Maybe just enough economic data this week to concern a market worried about growth
This week is a kind of mini-referendum on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy, and oil prices. Think of it one where some chickens come home to roost. (Hence the photo.) It’s not a big week for economic data but what there is is suggestive. On Wednesday, for...
Regional Fed banks cut their forecasts for second and third quarter U.S. GDP growth
What? Did the regional Federal Reserve banks all miss their money coffee? Their GDP forecasts released today all sure were grumpy. The most visible of the bunch, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast calls for 2.9% growth in the second quarter. The forecast was...
Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected; talks of reducing balance sheet starting by end of 2017
No surprises on interest rates. A mild surprise on reducing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. As expected–the Fed Funds Futures market was giving odds of 99.6% that there would be a 25 basis point interest rate increase–the Federal Reserve raised...
Market slips into neutral ahead of Fed interest rate decision tomorrow
Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you know that the Federal Reserve is set to announce a decision on interest rates after tomorrow’s meeting of its Open Market Committee. Â And you also know that the Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark...
June 14 interest rate increase would be non-event
The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points on June 14. And it’s a strong consensus, to put it mildly with the CME Fed Watch tool calculating that the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in a 95.8% chance of an interest rate...
Initial claims report good enough for June interest rate increase
Nothing in the weekly report on initial claims for unemployment to set the heart a twitter. But the numbers look good enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. Initial claims for the week ended May...
A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March, the...
Initial claims for unemployment come in below forecast; leave Fed on track for June 14 interest rate increase
Initial claims for unemployment climbed by 1,000 go 234,000 in the week ended May 20, the Labor Department announced today. The 234,000 total was below the 238,000 forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The foiur-week moving average of new claims, fell to...
Fed minutes from May point to June interest rate increase
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 3 meeting, released today, point to another interest rate increase, the second for 2017, at the central bank’s June 14 meeting. According to the minutes, “most participants judged that if economic...
April new home sales disappoint
New home sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 569,000. That was well below the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com for annualized sales of 605,000. The April annualized rate was down 11.4% from March. The housing market...
Amidst the circus don’t forget Fed minutes on Wednesday and revised GDP on Friday
I’ll grant you that it’s hard, very hard, right now to pay attention to economic fundamentals. There’s the upcoming OPEC decision on oil production cuts, President Trump’s first overseas tour, the continuing circus in Washington and more. But...
Markets rediscover risk–for a day anyway
This morning it looks like the combination of turmoil in Washington and some weak economic data have led traders and investors to take money out of risk assets and put money into safe havens. As of 11:40 a.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was off...
Fed has June 14 interest rate increase in its crosshairs
The Federal Reserve is certainly behaving like it will raise interest rates another 25 basis points at the June 14 meeting of the Open Market Committee. The U.S. central bank raised its target for the Fed funds rate to 0.75%-1% at its March meeting. The financial...
Watch out for volatility around Friday’s CPI inflation report
Friday’s Consumer Price Index release will have extraordinary power. Maybe even enough to move the financial markets. Ordinarily, the monthly report of inflation in the Consumer Price Index isn’t a market-shaking event. The CPI isn’t the inflation...
U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter
The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.7% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. That’s the slowest pace in three years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for growth of better than 1%. The Atlanta...
Jobs report not too hot, not too cold
So how many lives does this Goldilocks market have, anyway? This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs in March. That was the weakest gain since May 2015 and way under the 180,000 jobs expected by economists...
Will tomorrow’s jobs number be too strong for the markets?
Should be an interesting morning tomorrow. The U.S. government is set to release the jobs report for March at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are looking for the economy to add a net 180,000 jobs. That projection could be low, however,...
Financial markets take-away from today’s Fed minutes: Shrinking the balance sheet on tap in 2017
Amidst all the talk about inflation and inflation targets, and the strength of the labor market, and the role of stock prices in monetary policy, what the financial markets fastened on in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March minutes, released this...
No sign U.S. economic growth accelerating in today’s income report
Personal income in February rose by 0.4% month over month in February, the Commerce Department reported today. That matched economists’ expectations. But personal spending notched only a small gain of 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. The Personal...
In latest CBO report federal debt held by the public rises to 150% of GDP within 30 years
The Congressional Budget Office has released its newest projections for government spending, revenue–and most importantly–debt over the next 30 years. This release, the first under the Trump administration, essentially follows the conclusions of the last...
Housing strength and Fed chatter push dollar higher–and economy continues to support stocks
Pending home sales for February climbed 5.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for a 2.4% gain. The jump is the largest since July 2010.Pending home sales had dropped 2.8% in January. Pending home...
Winners from the Fed’s move on Wednesday
The jump in the price of gold and the even huger spike in the prices of gold mining stocks tells us something really important about how the financial markets see the Federal Reserve’s action and rhetoric on Wednesday, March 15. On Wednesday gold for April...
Fed raises interest rates a quarter of a percentage point and Yellen then talks markets in off the ledge
As is frequently the case, it’s not so much what the Federal Reserve did today as what Fed chair Janet Yellen said. At its meeting today the Fed’s Open Market Committee raised the central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate 25 basis points to a...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: How to tell when the bond bear market is finally at the door
Let me share a post that I put up last night on my paid sites about when the great bull market in bonds will finally turn into the great bear market in bonds. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that...
Ahead of the Fed meeting, Wall Street wonders if Fed might hike 4 times in 2017
With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates at its Wednesday, Wall Street is re-thinking its assumptions about the Fed’s actions on rates for the rest of 2017. Way back in December when the U.S. central bank raised interest rates for the first time,...
Strong February jobs report removes last doubt on Fed interest rate increase next week
The U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported today. The department’s statisticians also revised January’s job gains upwards to 238,000. Wages grew by a year over year 2.8% The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%. (The U-6, or...
Markets say the European Central Bank is about a year behind the Fed in raising interest rates
Ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank futures markets have started to raise the odds that the bank will start raising its benchmark deposit interest rate beginning in April 2018. The market was putting the odds of an April increase at 20% last...
Yellen says March interest rate increase likely to be “appropriate”
Janet Yellen’s speech today in front of the Executives’ Club of Chicago isn’t likely to disappoint those who were thinking that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its March 15 meeting. In her remarks Yellen said that an interest-rate...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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